Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Maybe it is a coincidence. But it is a pretty interesting coincidence. The Trump administration began dismantling USAID in early 2025. By March, roughly 83% of its programs had been cancelled. By mid-2025, the agency was effectively shut down. Then something happened across Latin America. Country after country started electing conservative candidates. Ecuador. Bolivia. Honduras. …
We are now at Day 72 of the Department of Homeland Security being unfunded.. The House GOP is calling this “Brutal Week” because they have to fix the border and the DHS budget by Thursday or the lights go out for real.. While they fight in DC.. a massive corporate war for the “Western Power …
🚨 SENATE BREAKTHROUGH AT DAWN! Republicans just PASSED their budget reconciliation package for ICE and CBP through the Senate in a 50-48 vote at 3:30 AM. After 68 days, the partial shutdown of DHS comes to an end. pic.twitter.com/qCa0D4WS91 — The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) April 23, 2026
House Republicans have teed up a vote Friday night on a stopgap bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) at fiscal year 2025 levels for an additional eight weeks, after their stunning rebuke of a Senate-passed deal to fund most of the department. The bill is expected to pass, assuming the GOP doesn’t …
Acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill on the devastating impacts of the Democrats' shutdown: "We have already lost over 480 TSOs….airports are experiencing days where 40-50% of their staff are calling out because they simply cannot afford to report to work." pic.twitter.com/k1LmBPQMCb — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 25, 2026 Airports across the country could soon …
Delta suspends its special desk service for members of Congress until the Democrat shutdown of DHS is over: “Due to the impact on resources from the longstanding government shutdown, Delta will temporarily suspend specialty services to members of Congress flying Delta.” pic.twitter.com/m5XOWbqHKD — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) March 24, 2026 View post on imgur.com NOW: …
Airports on verge of having to SHUT DOWN and stop all flights as TSA chaos triggers mass travel hell https://t.co/i5deT7pSmv — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 21, 2026 Airports across the country could be on the verge of shutting down as TSA agents continue mass callouts with the agency still shut down. Wait times to pass …
For those arguing the GDP data "isn't that bad" due to the gov't shutdown, the ACTUAL data DISAGREES. The GDP Deflator came in at 3.6% – meaning most of the 1.4% GDP was inflation, NOT real growth. Forget the shutdown excuse. The weakness is real, and productivity is terrible. https://t.co/W13nd3nZAh pic.twitter.com/f88eUhdNRX — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) …
During the previous Democrat shutdown, TSA agents were forced to: – Sleep in their cars at airports– Sell their blood and plasma– Take on second jobs TSA agents are once again working without pay because Democrats want to protect illegal alien criminals. pic.twitter.com/x8PtME8SAk — Lance Gooden (@Lancegooden) February 15, 2026 A partial U.S. government shutdown …
The odds of a US government shutdown on 14th Feb just dropped to 25%. Good for markets. pic.twitter.com/sLM0ferdLk — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) February 13, 2026 The drop in shutdown odds to 25% on markets like Polymarket stems from the current funding lapse affecting only DHS, with minimal broader impact. Prediction criteria require a new OPM …
🚨 BREAKING: The US Senate has just FAILED to advance the DHS funding bill, which means DHS will likely shutdown tomorrow night Fetterman was the lone Democrat to vote in favor. These idiots aren’t shutting down ICE, because ICE is FULLY FUNDED for the year. They’re shutting… pic.twitter.com/6RiMataVKz — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) February 12, 2026
🚨BREAKING: 75% CHANCE OF ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BY SATURDAY — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) February 9, 2026 PARTIAL US GOV’T SHUTDOWN POSSIBLE FEB. 14 DHS funding expires Feb. 13, risking a partial shutdown Feb. 14 affecting non-essential operations like TSA, FEMA, and immigration, while core border enforcement continues. Negotiations stall over immigration reforms. Markets see ~72%… …
Congress approved a spending package Tuesday afternoon that secures funding for the vast majority of federal agencies through September, ending the second government shutdown in the span of four months. But what’s left unfinished — funding for the Department of Homeland Security — will be a doozy, with partisan tensions over President Donald Trump’s immigration …
The House passed a bill to end the partial government shutdown Tuesday afternoon, cleared by a bipartisan vote under the insistence of President Donald Trump. The measure funds most of the federal government through Sept. 30, while providing the Department of Homeland Security with short-term funding for two weeks. Lawmakers will return to negotiate potential …
Watch live as U.S. House GOP leadership holds a weekly post-meeting news conference with Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and conference chairwoman Lisa McClain ahead a procedural vote on a bill that would end the partial government shutdown.
The Department of Labor won’t issue its report on U.S. hiring in January on Friday as planned because of the partial government shutdown. “The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” a spokeswoman for …
🚨BREAKING: The Senate Funding Deal May NOT PASS TODAY. pic.twitter.com/Bfpq1YsvNz — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) January 30, 2026 U.S. Senate FAILS to advance funding bill to avert partial government shutdown, 45-55. Government funding expires Friday at midnight for certain federal agencies. pic.twitter.com/Zed4o3pwou — CSPAN (@cspan) January 29, 2026 An effort to fast track a government funding …
HELL NO! this deal is trash! But of course, even with Republicans having the majority across the board! The Dems are getting EVERYTHING they want while leaving Republicans arguing with one another. 🤬 — Chris La Point (@1776FFF) January 30, 2026 President Donald Trump on Thursday endorsed a Senate deal to fund the vast majority …
A partial U.S. government shutdown will begin at 12:01 a.m. ET Saturday if the Senate fails to advance a spending measure by then. Democrats are warning they will not vote for the package unless funding for the Department of Homeland Security is stripped. Stripping the DHS funding would require reapproval by the House, which is …
🚨 NEW: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna revealed on Fox News that Republicans have formed an alliance — and if Democrats force a government shutdown over DHS funding, the House will attach the SAVE Act to any rules package.pic.twitter.com/nBP54ucgZS — Derrick Evans (@DerrickEvans4WV) January 26, 2026 The SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, H.R. 22) …
Key Senate Democrats said they would oppose legislation needed to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the week after federal agents shot and killed a Minneapolis resident. Bipartisan legislation to fund a broad swath of the government and avert a shutdown at the end of the week appeared to be in grave danger …
Currently a 77% chance on Polymarket. This morning it was 9%. Looks like something has been set in motion in Minneapolis today. https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31 If SNAP benefits are not paid again, in addition to many stores already being cleaned out by Winter Storm Fern, this can also be very bad for grocery store supply chains. h/t …
Congressional leaders released bill text Tuesday of a bipartisan compromise to fund the vast majority of the federal government ahead of the Jan. 30 shutdown deadline. The bicameral breakthrough on funding for the Pentagon and the nation’s largest nondefense agencies is the product of private negotiations between top appropriators in the two months since Congress …
Congress has until January 30th to pass new spending legislation to avoid a partial government shutdown. The Dems are going to try to shut everything down over ICE funding, again. We are approaching a crisis point. We must nuke the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act. pic.twitter.com/mAy4nwM2Ud — Farm Girl Carrie 👩🌾 (@FarmGirlCarrie) January 19, …
BANK of America has confirmed that it will close all of its branches for a 24-hour period, forcing customers to change their plans as the the day quickly approaches. Customers looking to make changes or seek assistance with their bank accounts at physical branch locations before the Martin Luther King holiday might be out of …
US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN MAY START ON JANUARY 31! I’ve been analyzing this for the last 12 hours and this is VERY BAD. Most investors ignore government shutdowns… BUT THIS IS A BIG MISTAKE. In 2026, the market is structurally fragile. A shutdown can hurt the financial system. If you have money invested, pay attention. Here’s …
🚨 BREAKING US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN MAY START ON JANUARY 31. SENATORS LEFT FOR CHRISTMAS WITHOUT AGREEING ON THE BUDGET OR EVEN THE VOTING PROCEDURE. NO DEAL – NO FUNDING. A SHUTDOWN WOULD BE REALLY BAD FOR WEAK MARKETS… pic.twitter.com/rHZGV353wL — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) December 25, 2025 We’re supposed to believe markets won’t freak out? The last …
France is rushing to avoid a shutdown like the one in the U.S. Macron’s emergency bill is a temporary fix as budget talks fell apart and parliament remains divided. France’s fractured parliament is debating an emergency bill Tuesday designed to prevent a U.S.-style government shutdown next week, after negotiations on a 2026 budget collapsed. Read …
GUESS WHO’S BACK? Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short… pic.twitter.com/4AkcBdQhG8 — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December …
