Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Fed better ignore this one off spike or risk the real pain. Do the math. 🧮 Headline: 172K. Leisure & hospitality – World Cup staffing – was 70K of it, vs. a 14K normal pace. Back out just the abnormal ~56K and you’re at ~116K. Back out the whole sector and you’re at ~102K – …
TRUMP IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR GROUND INVASION OF IRAN History laughs at armies who ignore the calendar. Russia’s winter destroyed Napoleon and Hitler. For Iran, it’s the summer that kills. Trump’s narrow window for a ground invasion is slamming shut. The Middle Eastern summer— just as brutal, just as unforgiving— will turn any …
Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting. We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months. Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again — which, in my view, …
This is not accumulation season. This is musical chairs. This whale just withdrew another $213,730,000 in $ETH. He now holds $1,380,000,000 in Ethereum. https://t.co/DEL2BZNbMV pic.twitter.com/DItac0Fuoy — Ted (@TedPillows) November 11, 2025 This is a WEEKLY rising wedge for Bitcoin It is perfectly rational to accept we have a reasonable probability of filling the CME gap …
Are you tired of paying more and getting less every time you go shopping? Shrinkflation has gone TOO FAR, and companies are secretly ripping us all off with sneaky product downsizing and hidden price hikes. In this video, we expose the truth about shrinkflation and how major brands are quietly shrinking package sizes while charging …
Western Union $WU talked about it on their last earnings call:https://t.co/hUCMS2dajC — Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) August 3, 2025 Immigrants are fleeing the US workforce in historic numbers. The ripple effects are stark. “This year the United States may experience a net outflow of immigrants for the first time in over 50 years … For the year …
The U.S. manufacturing recession is getting worse. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in July, its lowest since November 2024, marking the fifth month in a row of shrinking activity. “The manufacturing sector continues to struggle with declining demand,” the ISM report said. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/july/ New orders have contracted for six months straight. The employment …
6.5M sidelined want work participation rate keeps falling… 1. Sector BreakdownJune job gains were led by gov’t, healthcare, and hospitality—low-wage, service-heavy sectors. Meanwhile, business services, manufacturing, and tech were flat or shrinking. This isn’t strength—it’s a shift toward unproductive labor. pic.twitter.com/STzuNl5NM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) July 3, 2025 3. People Not in Labor Force …
The typical U.S. homebuyer puts 15% down, essentially unchanged from 15.1% last year. FHA and VA loans are becoming more common as the housing market tilts toward buyers. Just over 15% of mortgaged homebuyers use an FHA loan, and just over 7% use a VA loan, up from last year. 31% of buyers are paying …
The preference for only having boys is shrinking in China and India 👀 pic.twitter.com/4ajQXqspJ8 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 9, 2025 The long-standing preference for male children in China and India is gradually declining. In China, the sex ratio at birth has dropped from 117.8 boys per 100 girls in 2006 to 109.8 in …
Watch about 5 minutes is all you need. Basically he talks about these big tech companies going all in on ai and then automating their employees out. Employees laid off and they don’t buy that companies products. So company lays off more employees, and the circle continues. They’re eating their own… h/t John Dutton
https://twitter.com/nextlevelcharts/status/1903051518271713565
Google’s monopoly is shrinking byu/ChampionshipUsed9855 inu_ChampionshipUsed9855
1/ Look at this chart. 🇨🇦 job vacancies have plummeted to 572k in Q3 2024, a staggering 44.5% drop from the Q2 2022 peak. This is the lowest vacancy level since 2021. pic.twitter.com/9baBZ5yFht — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 23, 2024 3/ Employers aren’t just hiring less; 🇨🇦 labor demand is shrinking outright. Total jobs (filled + …
Samsung Electronics, the world's top maker of smartphones, TVs and memory chips, is cutting up to 30% of its overseas staff at some divisions, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told @Reuters. Read more https://t.co/U07j1AM2pe pic.twitter.com/imSKS6qwyq — Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) September 11, 2024 Samsung is reportedly planning to announce some major layoffs worldwide …
The worlds population is literally shrinking. We need to have more babies. Japan has 9 million vacant homes.https://t.co/5p2cV7mugV — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) July 23, 2024 Well China themselves are due to drop by like 50% in the next 30-50 years. I don’t know how that would contribute to continent wide rates, but I would imagine it …
Once you understand the concept of the microbiome, it’s easy to see the problem with pesticide-laden food: Pesticides are poisons designed to kill small lifeforms, and ingesting such poisons risks wiping out or disrupting the good bacteria that keep us alive and functional. The obvious solution is to eat only organic produce and meat. But that’s …
BREAKING: Nike stock, $NKE, is now down over 17% today after projecting a 10% decline in revenue for the current quarter. Nike now expects 2025 sales to fall mid-single digits, compared to estimates of a 0.9% increase. It also saw traffic in China decline across all channels… pic.twitter.com/k3ALg2s9a0 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, …
🇺🇸 US net interest and miscellaneous payments on assets by private enterprises $95.2 billion. 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗤𝟰 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟲! Locked in debt at cheap funding rates when the Fed had rates at zero and invested cash to earn higher interest income as the Fed raised rates. pic.twitter.com/Jo94wjhGTV — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 28, 2024 This means …
“Food costs hit 30 year high. Between ongoing inflation and shriveling real incomes, we’ve lost a generation of prosperity. For centuries each generation of Americans was richer than their parents — often twice as rich. This has now broken, whatever happy-talk government statisticians feed us. From food costs to life expectancies to home size and …
Like Japan before it, a declining birthrate and an aging population have precipitated a drop in the proportion of the working-age population and the savings rates in China, impacting long-term economic growth In response, China needs to boost the supply of labor through relaxing birth restrictions and raising the retirement age China also needs to …
Inflation? What Inflation?This is getting crazy. What other stuff is shocking you lately at the grocery store? pic.twitter.com/yyJFqFfJq5 — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 31, 2023 Inflation? What Inflation? Shrinkflation. We are seeing more and more of this. 221 mL vs 192 mL pic.twitter.com/AhUKIr8DsE — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 31, 2023 RED is reported …
Germany is calling for more immigrants to fix its shrinking economy. The German government has slashed its economic forecast for 2023, warning that output is expected to shrink by 0.4%. This would make Germany the worst-performing major economy this year, according to the IMF. One of the biggest challenges facing the German economy is a …
by Chris Black From Jan 2022, just before Russia entered Ukraine and put an end to covid, the nudge units must have been up all night brainstorming this one, but the absurdity and desperation are obvious. If they go with COVID again, I expect them to go very gently to start with and then to …
The American credit card fiasco has come to an end… 🫡 pic.twitter.com/CPOuXQPdXL — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 7, 2023 The decline in revolving credit outstanding suggests Americans may be starting to cut back on credit card usage – BBG notes “If sustained, a broader spending pullback could threaten the expansion” Yes, obviously (credit card debt …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! The global credit correction has arrived. Or as Bill Paxton said in Twister, “It’s already here!” The question is, how far into the economy will it extend? US Gross Domestic Income YoY is still growing strong at 4.5%, but shrinking really fast as Fed monetary stimulypto wears off. S&P Global Ratings’ Credit Cycle …