Fed better ignore this one off spike or risk the real pain.
Do the math. 🧮
Headline: 172K. Leisure & hospitality – World Cup staffing – was 70K of it, vs. a 14K normal pace.
Back out just the abnormal ~56K and you’re at ~116K.
Back out the whole sector and you’re at ~102K – dead on trend. pic.twitter.com/MCgxQBxA9f
— Rosanna Prestia, MBA (@RosannaInvests) June 6, 2026
The wage data confirms it. Average hourly earnings cooled to 3.4% YoY from 3.6%.
A genuinely tight labor market bids wages up. This one’s softening because the marginal job added is a seasonal hospitality shift, not a structural hire. Quantity up, quality down. The mix is…
— Rosanna Prestia, MBA (@RosannaInvests) June 6, 2026
One more: this is why you read the composition, not the headline.
The number that moves markets and the number that reflects the economy are rarely the same. Everyone reacted to 172K. The story was in the mix.
Look under the hood. Every time.
— Rosanna Prestia, MBA (@RosannaInvests) June 6, 2026