Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A new study just flipped the script on diabetes treatment. Researchers tracked 174,458 patients with type 2 diabetes and found that GLP-1 receptor agonists cut dementia risk more effectively than metformin. The data spans 20 years. The results aren’t subtle. The study pulled anonymized health records from the Trinetx global network. Each drug cohort had …
In July 2025, Cortical Labs released something no lab had done before. The CL1 is not a prototype or proof of concept. It is a working biocomputer built from live human neurons. The brain cells are real. Grown from stem cells. Wired to silicon. Kept alive inside a sealed system that regulates heat, oxygen, and …
Powell avoided the rate topic entirely. No hints. No guidance. Instead, he opened the Fed’s capital rule review on July 22 with a blunt message: big banks need stronger capital buffers, and they need freedom to compete. The speech dropped at 10:04 AM Eastern. No policy lines. Just structure. Fed is reviewing how it calculates …
The Big Beautiful Bill is sitting in the House chamber right now, and the clock is burning. The Senate passed it on July 1 with a 51 to 50 vote. Vice President JD Vance broke the tie. That sent the bill back to the House for final approval. But the House isn’t rubber-stamping anything. If …
Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast …
Piper Sandler Analyzes Sensitivity of $NVDA Data Center Revenues to Capex Slowdown Analyst comments: “We performed a sensitivity analysis on NVIDIA’s data center revenues to assess potential impacts from a slowdown in capital expenditures over the next year. In our worst-case scenario—assuming capex cuts across all NVDA data center end markets and no recovery in …
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year. We better hope there’s no recession, because if there is, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates could be a real drag on the market, in my view. pic.twitter.com/gDXHwh4KDC — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 28, 2025 Goldman Sachs is now projecting …
Several large gold ETF funds in CN have stopped subscribing, and many banks have issued risk warnings. Ordinary investors believe that in their eyes, a rise is a risk, and now they are warning of the risk, which means that gold will continue to rise sharply. pic.twitter.com/3tQTj50jzC — Bai, Xiaojun (@oriental_ghost) April 18, 2025
The market we have now is a bearish phase within a secular uptrend. A sustained uptrend typically doesn’t return until the event that triggered the downturn becomes irrelevant. However, if that event is about to be resolved, the market can skyrocket, breaking above the 200-day… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 15, 2025 $SPY options open interest …
“The global rules-based trading and financial system is at risk of collapse and confidence in the US dollar as the global safe asset weakens significantly, resulting in a sharp revaluation of US assets triggering a full-blown financial crisis,” is how Scope described this third scenario. https://archive.is/Yw0zn
Retail dip buyers may vanish when reality finally lands. Given how overpriced the U.S. stock market is, and the severity of the coming recession and earnings decline, it still has a long way to fall. In fact, despite the decline, given the negative impact of tariffs, the market is more overpriced now than it was …
German Economy Ministry: Due to declining orders and US trade policy, a noticeable weakening in the industrial cycle is to be expected in the coming months — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) April 14, 2025 United States President Donald Trump’s trade policies are raising the chances that the next financial crisis will occur “sooner than expected,” Germany’s incoming …
Here is March 2020, which followed the same sequence as 2008 only on a more compressed timeline. The dollar (green) was collapsing due to dollar outflows. Gold was rallying. Then vol spiked and Treasuries imploded and gold, both considered safe havens at the time. Then the… pic.twitter.com/kxWPZnwoxL — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 11, 2025 Bye the …
Scott Bessent before the Election: “In the next few years, we are going to have some kind of grand economic reordering. Something equivalent to a new Bretton Woods. There’s a very good chance that happens in the next 4 years and I’d like to be a part of it.” pic.twitter.com/2LDgk4QAoN — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April …
As severe thunderstorms threatened to hit parts of the Midwest and South on Wednesday, forecasters warned of potentially deadly flash flooding, strong tornadoes and baseball-sized hail. A large swath of the nation from northeast Texas to Michigan was forecast to see the potential for high winds and tornadoes on Wednesday. The area at highest risk …
Sherry Walker has been a commercial airline pilot for almost 35 years. She says DEI has so completely undermined safety standards that pilots are sometimes afraid to leave the cockpit for fear of what their co-pilots will do unattended. (0:00) Why Are All These Planes Crashing?… pic.twitter.com/Fl5SNtRlmB — Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) March 24, 2025
Rachel didn’t see this coming… ECONOMY – BREAKING: oops … more bad growth news for Rachel. She don’t factor this in either. British steel now looking at closing! 3500 jobs would be lost. Net zero will make you wealthier apparently 🤡 pic.twitter.com/rcbi4GsCbB — Bernie (@Artemisfornow) March 27, 2025 🚨NET ZERO -The UK ships 50 MILLION …
Now, it’s not just a matter of market cycles. It’s a matter of exposure, risk, and a financial system increasingly tilted toward the reckless pursuit of short-term gains. Those who remain exposed are gambling with their futures—and they might not get a second chance. We’ve hypothesized since last August that the reason we’re seeing such …
Data Center Alley, a 30-square-mile stretch outside Washington D.C. and home to more than 200 data centers, consumes roughly the same electricity as Boston. So power company officials were alarmed when a big chunk of those centers – 60 of them – suddenly dropped off the grid one day last summer and switched to on-site …
via WSJ S&P Global Ratings jolted markets nearly 15 years ago when it stripped the U.S. of its triple-A credit rating, citing mounting debts and political discord. Moritz Kraemer was an executive in S&P’s sovereign-bond unit when it cut the U.S.’s rating, then others including France, Austria and eventually the U.K. Now an economist for …
by notayesmanseconomics Let me start today’s update with some better news which is that the UK has exported some 0.5GW of electricity over the past 24 hours according to iamkate. But the reality over a longer perspective has been rather different to that as over the past week we have imported 3.3GW on average and …
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unexpectedly announced that Clark Hutchison, the Director of the Division of Clearing and Risk, will be stepping down from his position on January 15. This announcement, made with just a couple of days’ notice, has stirred considerable interest given Hutchison’s pivotal role in managing one of the CFTC’s …
$IONQ obliterated – suffers largest loss in history 📉🚨 pic.twitter.com/ZZE1TPKhWx — Barchart (@Barchart) January 9, 2025 BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, falls as the Biden Administration announces further limits on AI chip exports to China. pic.twitter.com/vk3gJDSCAS — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 8, 2025 Crypto is dumping LA is on fire Iran making some type of …
Devastating wildfires are rapidly spreading across Los Angeles today with firefighters conceding they remain powerless to contain the flames while because of strong winds. Some 30,000 residents in Pacific Palisades and surrounding areas are now under mandatory evacuation orders, amid warnings there is an immediate threat to their lives. Blazes have also broken out in …
This isn’t a run-of-the-mill doom-and-gloom production, this is a brutally honest, understandable and detailed explanation as to why the US stock market and the 10 biggest companies’ stocks are insanely over-valued. The biggest companies: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Meta (Fecesbook), Tesla, Broadcom, Berkshire-Hathaway (Warren Buffet), Wallmart The Market Cap to GDP Ratio (also known …
MSTR has slowed down their bitcoin purchases.. and bitcoin is down… and their stock is down. 🤔 It’s almost like these things are correlated in some way… I wonder if folks will keep lending them billions to buy bitcoin if this continues. https://t.co/FKAco4hglh pic.twitter.com/duimjODWAw — @jason (@Jason) December 30, 2024 Tether depeg now down to …
Late to this party but this is wrong under any reading of the convertible notes prospectus. If the stock is below the conversion price, noteholders get their principal and accrued interest paid back in cash, not stock The fact he is saying this only feeds the “docs don’t matter, fiat don’t matter, equity don’t matter …
