Let me start today’s update with some better news which is that the UK has exported some 0.5GW of electricity over the past 24 hours according to iamkate. But the reality over a longer perspective has been rather different to that as over the past week we have imported 3.3GW on average and over the last year 3.8GW. That is very different to what we were promised where we were supposed to import from the French nuclear reactors in winter and export our renewable power to France when the nukes were in maintenance. This is yet another situation where reality is nothing like the promises and when wind power is short the UK finds itself calling on the interconnectors to their present maximum of around 8GW.
That is very different to the claims of national security as immediately one thinks of recent incidents where Russian and Chinese ships have been discovered in the vicinity of power and gas cables elsewhere that have mysteriously sprung a leak. Also as some of you have been mentioning in the comments the countries which supply us have become concerned about the impact on their own electricity supply. Here is EuroNews from December.
The two ruling parties in Norway are pledging to campaign to cut the two power interconnectors that link the country with Denmark, when they come up for renewal in 2026, reports the FT. The smaller coalition party, the Center Party is eyeing revisiting similar energy links with the UK and Europe.
One of the reasons is that electricity prices are extremely high in the country these days, something that the energy minister Terje Aasland described as outrageous, cited Norwegian newspaper E24.
I have to confess that until this issue sprung up I had considered Norway to be in a strong position albeit that I recall a drought causing issues for its hydropower. But they too have found themselves at the mercy of unreliable wind power.
A big part of Norwegian electricity generation comes from hydropower, but some 10% of the electricity supply is delivered by wind power mainly coming from the continent. Recently, there was a lack of wind in Germany and the North Sea, coupled with low temperatures in Norway.
This meant that Norway ended up with high electricity prices.
The electricity price in the country’s southernmost area rose to over 13 kroner (€1.12) per kilowatt hour in the most expensive hour, including network rental and fees. For comparison, the EU average for the first half of 2024 was €0.1867 per KWh.
I have to say I do not blame them for being upset. From a UK point of view the relevance of this is that there is a 1.4GW connector which we use most of the tome averaging 1.15GW over the past year. So any reduction which pose a further issue for our already strained supply.
If we bring that up to date via Reuters this morning we see that there may well be trouble ahead.
The coalition breakdown leaves Norway’s Labour Party to rule alone until planned elections in September, and raises questions about whether Norway will remain a major clean power exporter.
Labour trails in polls to more conservative parties that are against adopting strict energy export targets.
France
As Reuters points out that switches the focus to France.
France is the largest supplier of clean electricity to Europe’s top electricity importers, and has played a critical role in helping to cap regional electricity costs in recent years by exporting record volumes of clean power.
This development has been good news for French economic output and exports.
France started 2025 with the largest monthly power output total in more than three years, at 75,577 gigawatt hours (GWh), according to LSEG.
That total was roughly 5% above January 2024, and 37% above the average monthly output from 2022 to 2024.
That will be welcome after a decline of 0.1% for GDP in the last quarter of 2024. It will also be welcome in the countries which have come to rely on its support for their own electricity supply.
Within mainland Europe, Germany has become particularly dependent on electricity imports, and in 2024 imported nearly six times more electricity than it averaged annually from 2015 to 2021, according to data portal energy-charts.info.
Italy, which has been Europe’s top power importer for years, increased electricity imports by around 20% from the 2015-2021 average to new highs in 2024.The United Kingdom also posted record electricity imports in 2024, which were roughly 100% above the 2015 to 2021 average.
As you can see the so-called claims about security of supply of electricity have in fact involved us becoming more dependent on others, in particular France. The present UK government is not responsible for this as it was the previous Conservative one which plunged us into this mess. But they sadly are set on course to make it even worse.
But returning to France I have noted in the past the troubles they had with their nuclear fleet so it is only fair to point out that they got their act together.
The key driver behind this output surge has been France’s nuclear network, which bumped production by 8% from January 2024 to the highest since at least the start of 2022.
The completion of key plant maintenance and the start-up of a new reactor have been key factors behind the nuclear output gains, and should allow France’s nuclear power stations to sustain relatively high production rates going forward.
Although there may be trouble ahead for later this year.
However, ongoing issues with corrosion at older plants mean that drops in overall production cannot be ruled out later in 2025, especially if the availability of cooling water from rivers is impeded by warm weather in the summer.
I have noted before the rise in electricity prices for later this year which no doubt reflect concerns should this happen in a cold snap with little or no wind. Also as Javier Blas of Bloomberg points out below even countries like France with a more sensible reliable electricity supply are facing issues and higher prices.
Nordic countries increasingly feel they are paying the cost of a failed German energy policy — one they weren’t consulted on, though it affects them.2 France is starting to feel similarly, as are Austria and Poland. Even Greece is complaining.
Rosebank
The UK does have oil and gas resources but our political class are determined not to use them. Here is the Labour MP Stella Creasy from earlier today.
A court has ruled the Tory decision to go ahead with the Rosebank oil field was flawed because it didn’t take full account of the environmental impact – this means we have a chance to put our environmental and economic ambitions first and rethink Rosebank.
How dim do you have to be to think that this advances our “economic ambitions”?! Although to be fair to Stella there is according to the Guardian another MP even dimmer.
A fourth Labour MP said it was important to make the case that new oilfields should not be seen as an automatic growth advantage. “You’re banking on what could potentially very quickly become stranded assets, and the profits go to private companies but it’s the public sector that will end up clearing up the mess.
Great British Energy
Speaking of clearing up the mess the head of Great British Energy was interviewed by Sky News yesterday.
EXCL: Boss of Labour’s GB Energy admits to
that a pledge of 1000 jobs for Aberdeen HQ could take 20 years. In his first TV interview, Juergen Maier also repeatedly refuses to tell me when voters can expect £300 off their energy bills. ( @ConnorGillies)
Fair play to Sky News for asking some reasonable questions which elicited the answers you can see above. Juergen Maier seemed rather harassed that someone should be asking him such questions leading to this from Sky News.
The state-owned company will not supply power to homes but it will invest in new renewable projects while attempting to attract private investors.
We are still none the wiser as to what it will actually do apart from employ 100-200 bureaucrats.
For carrying on an Undertaking of great Advantage, but no body to know what it is.
That is from the South Sea Bubble some three hundred or so years ago.
Comment
So far the UK supply of electricity has just about got through this winter. The promises from the National Grid that supply was secure morphed one Wednesday this January into near desperation as it paid sky high prices to get a thin 0.5GW margin to avoid rationing and power cuts. We have come to rely on the interconnectors and that mostly means France and Norway. As I type this we are relying on Norway for 1.4GW even though we have 19GW of wind power.
But as you can see the political claims of “security” now look to be negligent and leave our electricity supply at risk. Just as they have been encouraging people to switch to electricity for transport and heating via heat pumps. As the nutty boys put it.
Propaganda ministers
Propaganda ministers
I’ve a-got a heavy due
I’m gonna walk all over you
‘CauseMadness, madness, they call it madness
Well if this is madness
Then I know I’m filled with gladness
It’s gonna be rougher
It’s gonna be tougher, pa-da-da, pa-da-da
But I won’t be the one who’s gonna suffer
Oh no, I won’t be the one who’s gonna suffer
You are gonna be the one, a-you…
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