Market-implied probability of a US recession within 12 months is 41%, historically high. August 8, 2024 9:59 pm
BEWARE: The probability of a recession by Dec 2024 is at 63% July 21, 2024 9:54 pmJuly 20, 2024 8:37 am
Trump holds highest ever 61% probability of winning, while Biden’s chances drop to 20%, the lowest ever. July 11, 2024 11:09 am
Warning Signs Flashing: NYCB’s Default Probability Surges, Moody’s Downgrades to Junk, and Commercial Real Estate Risks Mount March 2, 2024 10:03 pm
Ford Indicators Flash Serious Recession Signals as Probability of Contraction Rises January 30, 2024 9:47 pmJanuary 30, 2024 5:03 pm
There is a mounting probability of a looming surge in massive credit card loan delinquencies and defaults. December 5, 2023 3:09 pmDecember 5, 2023 1:57 pm
The market is anticipating the Fed’s first cut on March 20th, with a 63.4% probability, signaling a slowing economy and potential crisis. December 4, 2023 9:23 am
Survey of Consumer Expectations: U.S. households probability of being able to come up with $2,000 if an unexpected need arose within the next month falling to its lowest level since 2013. November 21, 2023 9:02 am
The probability of losing money in the S&P 500 $SPY decreases from 46% to 6% by increasing your holding period from 1 day to 10 years: November 15, 2023 10:32 am
NY FED recession probability is on highs. Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions. November 6, 2023 4:03 pm
The probability of losing money in the S&P 500 drops from 46% to 6% by increasing your holding period from 1 day to 10 years. Investing is about strategy, not emotions. September 12, 2023 9:11 pm
Yale University: 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%. August 25, 2023 9:32 am
Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024. August 11, 2023 1:57 pm
The Fed “pause” last week has led to a 77% probability of rate hike in July. On the fiscal side, things are even more dire as the Treasury is issuing massive amounts of new debt which will only implode liquidity further going into the low liquidity summer months June 20, 2023 10:15 pm
Leading economic indicators are contracting at levels that have systematically led to a recession. Bear market probability model is at an unprecedented level June 13, 2023 8:14 amJune 11, 2023 10:32 pm