The market is anticipating the Fed’s first cut on March 20th, with a 63.4% probability, signaling a slowing economy and potential crisis.

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Be careful what you wish for, as the looming rate cut anticipated at the Fed’s March 20th meeting might not bring the desired outcome. History suggests that the first cut often aligns with a market decline, typically indicative of a slowing economy or crisis.

Concerns are surfacing, especially in California, where tax receipts have plummeted by 25%, raising questions about an impending recession. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) report indicates a downturn in 2022, supported by the triggering of the Sahm Rule, even though applying it to states sparks controversy.

Economic downturn signals are widespread, exemplified by Spotify’s plan to cut 17% of its staff. The company cites dramatically slowed economic growth and increased capital costs as driving factors, possibly foreshadowing broader economic challenges.

Delinquencies, adjusted for inflation, have reached 2008 levels. Unlike the 2008 crisis, current delinquencies persist despite no decline in interest rates or home prices. This sets the stage for a potentially larger policy error in market history.

November’s robust market rally, reminiscent of 2008, doesn’t necessarily indicate a bullish trend. The S&P 500’s expected 3.1% year-over-year revenue growth for Q4 2023 falls below the earlier estimate of 3.9% growth, raising concerns about the market’s health.

The acceleration of ejections from TGA+RRP hints at a desperate attempt to keep the dollar down. However, its effectiveness is debatable. The downward curve in this scenario doesn’t paint a picture of a soft landing, raising apprehensions about the economic trajectory. As the Fed contemplates a rate cut, the market watches with bated breath, navigating uncertain waters filled with signs of an impending economic slowdown.

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