Market-implied probability of a US recession within 12 months is 41%, historically high.

🇺🇸 Recession

The current market-implied probability of a US recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 41%, which is quite high by historical standards
👉 t.co/m11iBkSWhc

h/t @GoldmanSachs #GDP $spx #spx #recession #recessions pic.twitter.com/TdrxSZxViM

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) August 8, 2024

🚨 #Fed #rates Prob% = MASSIVE swing 1-month 💥
🔎 SEP: 8-Jul HOLD 20% & -0.25% = 80% vs 9-Aug -0.25% = 43% & -0.50% = 57%!!!
🔎 NOV: 8-Jul -0.25% = 76% & -0.50% = 24% vs -0.50% = 16% vs -0.75% = 84%!!!
🔎 DEC: 8-Jul -1.0% = 0% vs 9-Aug -1.0% = 89%!!!#economy #stocks #recession pic.twitter.com/25I78PIfpz

— Carl Capolingua (@CarlCapolingua) August 8, 2024

🇺🇸 ISM

The US manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand
👉 t.co/blMxcoFA78

h/t @MikeZaccardi #ISM #recession pic.twitter.com/gF0ptiXbAX

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) August 8, 2024

Sources:

www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-white-house-change-definition-recession-1727641
www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/united-states-recession/