Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
$480k home with 10 percent down hits $3,400 monthly mortgage while he clears just $5,800 take home via PurpleRecognition216 I max my 401k, I have an emergency fund, no credit card debt, no car payment and no student loans. Grew up in Austin. My parents bought their house in 1991 for $87,000 on a …
Notice, this never lasts. Homes are CURRENTLY priced at 2.75% mortgage rates. https://t.co/Qp5Z1P2x0l — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 2, 2026 We are living through one of the largest artificially inflated real estate bubbles in history. Zero rates. Massive stimulus. Record speculation. Now the unwind begins. pic.twitter.com/GldAUS1HeJ — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 3, 2026 Housing supply …
George Noble @gnoble79 This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I’ve seen in my 45 years on Wall Street. SpaceX just disclosed Musk’s new compensation package: He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys …
AMD wins the chart bubble race- but with a pe ratio of 133 and the nect 16 years of sales priced in – Look out below = PUTS byu/Salt_Yak_3866 insmallstreetbets Directionally you can be right, but if you’re wrong on the timing you might as well be wrong on both.
China just made Silicon Valley’s entire AI industry look like a scam. The US government spent 3 years trying to stop China from building competitive AI. But this backfired HORRIBLY. Here’s what happened: Yesterday, a Chinese startup called DeepSeek released a new AI model called V4. It matches the performance of OpenAI and Anthropic’s best …
The top 20% of Americans now own the majority of US real estate: The top 1% of US earners hold a record $6.1 trillion in real estate, followed by the next 19% who hold $21.0 trillion, an all-time high. This means the top 20% own a combined $27.1 trillion, or 56.4% of total US real …
Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight $NVDA is going to crush earnings. Everyone knows this. That’s the problem. None of us are going to be surprised by good numbers. The question isn’t whether they beat. It’s the second derivative. How much is already priced. How many people already hold the stock. Semis have outperformed software. …
“Private credit exposure to AI disruption high, not priced in – UBS” No kidding. “…We estimate that 25–35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450 billion, $350 billion of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is most acute in technology (~24% …
All-time highs in dollars just expose how fast the currency is collapsing. Trump just celebrated the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high. But look at the chart below. This is the S&P 500 priced in Gold (Real Money). It isn't going up… it's free falling. We just broke a 10-year support line and the US …
No way this is true. Tariff rate for a doll is 25%, so $800 tariff would be on a doll worth$3,200. — Jackie Staaf (@StaafJackie) December 22, 2025 pic.twitter.com/3QiXj2zlCu — Mahovolich (@mahovolich) December 21, 2025
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
“They Gave Mortgages to Illegal Immigrants.” – Ed Dowd Most thought the housing bubble was just rent subsidies. Wrong. The FHA was selling homes to illegals, using taxpayer-backed mortgages. “I thought they were just supporting prices via the rental market… but they were actually buying homes.” Now the market’s cracking. – Prices falling. – Layoffs …
And no magic liquidity indicator or fancy theory will change that. Major layoffs announced in 2025: • UPS: 48,000 employees • Amazon: up to 30,000 employees • Intel: 24,000 employees • Nestlé: 16,000 employees • Accenture: 11,000 employees • Ford: 11,000 employees • Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees • Microsoft: 9,000 employees • Chevron: 8,000 employees …
It now takes an income of 124k to buy the median priced home in America. Only 18% of single Americans make 100k. 62% of homebuyers are married. Lower rates won’t fix family formation. See the problem? pic.twitter.com/4DO0rEKUTh — Cherrygarciafan. USD🏴☠️ (@cherrygarciafan) August 10, 2025 The median household income necessary to purchase the median priced home …
They hit $1 billion. But the multiple still demands miracles. Palantir posted second-quarter revenue of $1 billion, up 48% from last year. Earnings per share came in at $0.16, beating consensus by $0.02. U.S. commercial nearly doubled to $306 million. Government contracts jumped 53% to $426 million. Total contract value surged 140% to $2.27 billion. …
You can beat earnings. You can post record margins. But if your stock trades at 90 times forward revenue, none of that matters unless you rewrite physics. Palantir’s Q2 2025 earnings are set to land between $934 million and $938 million. That’s up 38% YoY. Operating income clocks in at $403 million, with adjusted margins …
pic.twitter.com/SBh2u4VzqM — Larissa (@Larissa84403556) August 2, 2025 Las Vegas is losing visitors fast. Rising costs are pushing tourists away. Hotel rooms have become nearly 70% more expensive since 2015. Coffee costs $9. Buffets can run $100. Parking garages at the airport sit mostly empty. TSA PreCheck lines are almost gone. “Hotel occupancy dropped more than …
The Oasis homecoming shows in Manchester have turned into a spectacle beyond the stage. Tickets were priced so high that many longtime fans in the band’s own city couldn’t afford to attend. Some took matters into their own hands. Over the weekend, at least 50 people attempted to breach the perimeter fences at Heaton Park. …
The fundamental problem in the housing market today. American households need to earn $112,000 in order to afford a house. However, the Median Household income is only $84,000. Meaning that a huge portion of the U.S. population is unable to even qualify for a mortgage. Note that from 2010 to 2020, the opposite was true. …
🚨Container bookings from China to the US are COLLAPSING: Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US fell 45% Y/Y in mid-April, according to Vizion. Next will be a trucking demand DROP leading to empty shelves, lower sales, layoffs and a RECESSION. pic.twitter.com/4hJ4tg53fo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 29, 2025 🚨Container …
The median age of homebuyers has climbed to 56, marking a dramatic shift in the housing market. This is the highest recorded age for buyers, reflecting the impact of soaring home prices, high mortgage rates, and tightening inventory. Younger generations are being priced out, leaving older, wealthier buyers as the dominant force in real estate. …
Housing affordability has rarely been worse: 94 million American households cannot afford a $400,000 home, according to a National Association of Home Builders analysis. By comparison, the estimated median price of a new house is ~$460,000. To put this differently, 70% of US households cannot afford a typical-priced home. Concerningly, ~53 million households cannot even …
They say it is the future. They say it will change everything. But here we are, staring at a company trading at eighty times its sales with no path in sight to justify it. This is not a minor exaggeration. It is a full-blown hallucination on a national stage. Palantir is not solving world hunger. …
2/ The Fed had been on an unprecedented hiking cycle Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process pic.twitter.com/s8OvQS8I6C — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 21, 2025 4/ During the recent hiking cycle, 30-year mortgage rates broke out a key downtrend line It rose from 2.65% …
This chart shows the median U.S. homebuyer housing payment on a median-priced home from January 2020 to April 2025, according to Redfin data. It starts at $1,484 in early 2020. It dips slightly to $1,688 by late 2020. Then it rises steadily, hitting $2,404 by mid-2022. It peaks at $2,555 in early 2023, then fluctuates, …
Uncertainty rising—higher risk premiums ahead I keep hearing people talk about what they think is “priced in.” Some even say that the “worst case” is priced in. You are fooling yourself. Small samples of people pontificating on what’s going to happen doesn’t equate to knowing what’s priced in. Whatever the outcome today,… pic.twitter.com/0bb8zkQ1Md — Kantro …
You're missing the best part, 80% of the people who can afford ALREADY OWN pic.twitter.com/BeDXsEK7ap — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) March 31, 2025
Palantir isn’t valued on fundamentals. It’s running on hype, government contracts, and dreams. When the market wakes up, reality will hit hard. Palantir is 85% of the market cap of Salesforce. In the past twelve months: Salesforce did $11.87b in free cash flow Palantir did $1.1b in free cash flow Salesforce did $37b in revenuePalantir …
It’s a troubling reality that underscores the growing divide between the wealthy elite and the struggling majority. tick tock pic.twitter.com/FflitwaJ3G — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 23, 2025 The bottom 50% of households hold 2.4% of US wealth, per Bloomberg. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 23, 2025 https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1882758630866575474
$AAPL GUIDES LOW SINGLE GROWTH FOR Q4 BUT THE STOCK IS PRICED 35X P/E pic.twitter.com/l3Xnnh0Etj — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) October 31, 2024 During the years of its epic business growth post GFC, $AAPL traded below 20x Today $AAPL is a “value” company with zero growth, zero innovation and channel stuffing its vendors with obsolete …