Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The inflation argument always starts in the wrong place. Everyone argues about the latest price increase. Almost nobody talks about the giant jump that already happened. A $100 item when Trump left office in January 2021 became roughly a $121 or $122 item by the time Biden left office. Today it costs around $128. Yet …
by Michael When we were told that the ceasefire extension with Iran would include “the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, I didn’t realize that this was only for a period of 60 days. As you will see below, once the 60 days are over the Iranians will be allowed to charge vessels for passing …
BREAKING: Benjamin Netanyahu says he will not comply with President Trump’s peace deal with Iran and will strike Iran and Lebanon whenever he deems necessary. Netanyahu says he does not see eye to eye with Trump on the issue and that he is responsible for Israel’s security.… pic.twitter.com/3JECB3b4hF — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) June 15, …
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic fertilizer supply shock detailed by the FAO and energy reporting, as well as Oilprice. Roughly 30 to 34 percent of global fertilizer exports and 50 percent of global sulfur trade were dependent on this maritime chokepoint before the blockade began in February 2026. Global …
Israeli artillery is currently pounding positions in Marjayoun following a rocket volley… Death toll from yesterday’s Jiyeh highway drone strikes has been revised to 14… Hezbollah has reportedly moved “long-range assets” into the Bekaa Valley in response… U.N. peacekeepers confirm three of their outposts were caught in crossfire overnight… Netanyahu tells his cabinet: “The 21-day …
The Trump administration has told countries that want a permanent spot on the new Gaza Board of Peace (BoP), which will be responsible for rebuilding the Gaza Strip and ensuring Hamas’s disarmament, that they must contribute “at least one billion dollars,” Bloomberg News reported on Saturday night. “Each Member State shall serve a term of …
On December 10th, the Federal Reserve launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. But this time, there is a catch: they want this round of money creation to be called “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMPs), and Chairman Powell has signaled that the Fed has no intention of ever ending them. In this latest Macro Watch video, …
6 doesn’t sound like a lot. But an additional 6 percent demand for houses drives up costs more than 6%. 6% is a lot. Adding 5% more cars to a city can make traffic 25% worse. Same situation. 6% can take a buyer’s market and make it a sellers one. It’s a big deal. On …
TRUMP: THE SHUTDOWN CONTINUES, TIME TO AXE SOME DEM PROGRAMS “We’ll be making cuts that will be permanent. And we’re only going to cut Democrat programs. I hate to tell you. I guess that makes sense.” Source: @atrupar 🇺🇸 TRUMP: THE SHUTDOWN CONTINUES, TIME TO AXE SOME DEM PROGRAMS "We'll be making cuts that will …
US farmers are saying we “just need temporary help, until things get better.” Here’s the thing. US farm exports- which are mostly soy- CAN’T get better. Other countries are now fillingl China’s demand. We’ve walled ourselves out of the global market, folks. This is it. The thing is, this isn't even the first time US …
Mayor Adams announces over 1,000 homeless New Yorkers moved from subways to permanent homes thanks to Subway Safety Plan https://t.co/yL3wWtBzyR pic.twitter.com/MaaFMWwsnS — New York Post (@nypost) August 11, 2025 Over 3,500 homeless New Yorkers have been taken off Big Apple streets and subways and placed in permanent housing since the start of Mayor Eric Adams’ …
The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed President Trump’s budget proposal, marking a pivotal moment in shaping the future of U.S. fiscal policy. With a 216-214 vote, the resolution secures the permanence of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), cementing its impact on taxpayers and the economy. However, the vote also sparked serious …
Experts have sounded the alarm about blockbuster weight loss drugs like Ozempic leaving users blind. Several studies have linked the shots to conditions that cause inflammation and block blood flow to the eye, causing severe and sometimes permanent vision loss. Researchers have detailed nine new reports of US patients who went blind after taking semaglutide …
“The closure will eliminate 1,700 permanent jobs and 250 temporary ones. It comes after workers at an Amazon warehouse in the Montreal suburb of Laval, Que. managed to unionize in May. Amazon dismissed the suggestion that the closures are linked to a unionization push in the province and has said it’s about delivering efficient and …
A bipartisan group of senators, led by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), has reintroduced legislation to make daylight saving time permanent year-round. The proposal is opposed by a coalition of sleep medicine organizations, which advocate “locking the clock” but in standard time. The legislation, called the Sunshine Protection Act, was unanimously passed in the Senate in …
Actually pulling a Uhaul up to the White House is CRAZY 😂 It’s like they are begging us to make a meme out of them. — Clandestine (@WarClandestine) August 19, 2024 U-haul Blocking a fire hydrant. 🤷🏼♂️ pic.twitter.com/H5JWyni1fR — joe miller (@JoeMiller4547) August 19, 2024
As New York unveils its staggering $237 billion state budget, concerns mount over its long-term implications, particularly for New York City. The decision to institutionalize a temporary surcharge on high-income earners amidst rising out-migration and quality-of-life concerns raises questions about the state’s fiscal responsibility and its impact on urban centers. Key points: New York’s latest …
The new Anchorage office of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, located just across from the Memorial Park Cemetery on Cordova Street, should be shut down to save about $170,000, according to draft budget language moving through the Legislature. The proposed intent language from lawmakers is aimed directly at the trustees of the fund: “It is …
Exactly. Increasing illegals boosts Dem voting power, causing them to recruit even more! If Dems win President, House & Senate (with enough seats to overcome filibuster), they’ll grant citizenship to all illegals & America will become a permanent one-party deep socialist state. https://t.co/XoSM2Bk0py — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 11, 2024 Elon Musk and Bill Hagerty …
In straightforward terms, let’s address a pressing concern: Inflation is here to stay, and the US deficit is spiraling out of control. Despite Treasury Secretary Yellen’s reassurances, there’s reason to be uneasy about the mounting US debt. Facing the facts, $1 trillion-plus US budget deficits are becoming the norm, and federal projections paint a grim …
President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrived on Nantucket Tuesday night for their Thanksgiving break, where they’ll mark the holiday and celebrate the president’s 81st birthday with family. Six of their seven grandchildren are expected to join them on the island, where they’ll take over billionaire businessman turned philanthropist David Rubenstein’s $34 million …
Holy shit. Rep. Ryan Zinke, former Trump Interior Secretary, just introduced a bill to expel all Palestinians who aren’t permanent residents from the country—and bar them permanently from seeking legal status. https://twitter.com/_/status/1720559009495650759 🚨 BREAKING – POSSIBLE PALESTINIAN BAN IN AMERICA: Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke introduced a bill that could ban Palestinians from entering the US …
Permanent job losses have been on the rise A spike in this metric has sysmtematically led to a recession Current rate of increase is comparable to: – Dot Com bubble– Financial Crisis– Pandemic All three instances experienced significant economic downturns, Resulting in… pic.twitter.com/yB2EPvxOV6 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 18, 2023 60bps away from starting our …
The 2023 Permanent Fund dividend will be $1,312, the Alaska Department of Revenue said Thursday. The annual payments to Alaskans will be disbursed beginning Oct. 5 and continue in the following weeks, the department said. The Permanent Fund dividend amount hasn’t followed the dividend formula set in state statute since 2016 — with lawmakers saying …
Reality is all that previous excessive money printing has goosed up prices far above the long term core trend. And only a hard landing would even have a shot at bringing it back to trend, otherwise the future is clear: Permanent higher prices and cost of living with wages not having kept up. And the …
