A hub for independent voices and hard truths
by confoundedinterest17 The song “Running on Empty” by Jackson Browne comes to mind when analyzing the state of American banking, especially regional banks. Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks’ usage of The Fed’s BTFP bailout facility surged to …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not …
In an unprecedented development, the Federal Reserve’s urgent crisis escalates as its decade-long bond-buying spree, valued at $7.7 trillion, reveals a shocking loss, with unrealized losses on the balance sheet surpassing $1.3 trillion for the first time ever. The amortized cost now stands at 20.4% more than the mark-to-market price, …
by confoundedinterest17 Gimme (inexpensive) shelter! The good news is that The Federal Reserve finally cooled inflation. Well, at least core inflation cooled to 4%, twice The Fed’s target rate. At least The Fed is making progress. But on the housing front, shelter CPI is still up 6.7% YoY while transportation …
by confoundedinterest17 Another day, another dose of bad fiscal/monetary news. Not surprising with the US Treasury being run by Janet Yellen, who doesn’t seem to know much economics. In fact, with Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors in port, inflation and The Fed’s counterattack, we see that interest of US debt just hit $1 …
by confoundedinterest17 US inflation is lower than it was a year ago (cheers from The View CNN and MSNBC cheerleaders), but inflation remains stubborning above The Fed’s 2% target rate and will likely remain above 2% for the nexf few years. So mortgage demand is much like inflation … mortgage …
by TonyLiberty The US housing market is at its most unaffordable level in 39 years, with mortgage rates at record highs near 8%. Monthly principal and interest payments on a median-priced home have surpassed $2,500 for the first time since tracking began in 1975. Monthly mortgage payments now consume nearly …
by confoundedinterest17 We are back in time … at least for the mortgage market. Thanks to Bidenomics!!!! Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 27, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of …
The Royal Bank of Canada raises concerns about Canadian homeowners facing potential payment shocks, especially as 60% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew within the next three years. The Royal Bank of Canada is warning that Canadian homeowners could experience a payment shock unless interest rates significantly decrease. 60% …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is the gift that keeps on giving … if you are one of the top 1% of income. But if you are in the middle class, Bidenomics is like a horror movie. Pending home sales fell 7.1% in August 2023, with all four regions of the U.S. …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenflation, a name for the combination of reckless Federal spending and excess monetary stimulus related to Covid, is still causing severe pain for the middle class. The massive Federal spending splurge is still working its way through the economy and causing distortions, like surging new home sales despite …
by confoundedinterest17 The US is teetering on World War III with tensions soaring in the Middle East, Ukraine, and southeast Asia. And Biden wanders off to Rehobeth Beach Delaware to relax … while over 200 Americans are still held hostage by terrorist group Hamas. The bad news? Biden is back …
by confoundedinterest17 I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden raising of The Fed’s target rate …
by confoundedinterest17 Fire! Yes, Biden and Congress created a fire with it reckless Federal spending leading in 40-year highs inflation, prompting The Fed to counterattack with rapid rate hikes. We now see the 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%. And the REAL 10-year Treasury yield passing 2.46%. And Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage …
Homebuyers today face paying $500,000 more in the course of a 30-year mortgage than they would have done two years ago after rates shot up to 8 percent. Analysis by DailyMail.com found that in 2021, an individual purchasing a $400,000 home would pay just $1,621 each month on their loan. …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing in the US is simply unaffordable! Under Bidenomics, home prices are up 30% while real weekly earnings growth has been negative for most of Biden’s Presidency. And mortgage rates are up 178% under Bidenomics. Sky-high mortgage rates and still-rising home prices have made it harder than ever to …
🚨🚨🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hits 8.00% for the first time since 2000. Taking into account mortgage rates, incomes, and house prices, October 2023 stands out as the least affordable month for U.S. housing this century. Spread: 308 bps pic.twitter.com/2MH8BlaXJM — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) October 18, 2023 Ladies …
Mortgage Rates Close to 8% as Economy Refuses to Cool Inflation and economic growth… Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates over the past few years. The Fed won’t signal an end to its “higher for longer” rate …
https://t.co/zmQWd4sGpu — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 16, 2023 It was also reported that sales of multi-tenant apartment buildings dropped 74%, reaching a new record since 2009. Read more: https://t.co/z4NqPdSVqo — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 17, 2023 The housing market … 2023 pic.twitter.com/nJu7YiHVYu — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 17, 2023
Fun fact: bank credit is now contracting! Since dollar standard (‘71), that’s only happened once before: 2008. Losses in T bonds will far worse than mortgage losses. Stocks are on the verge of a massive collapse. Fractional banking does’t work in reverse. Few. pic.twitter.com/0fzX16lYGn — Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) October 15, …
by TonyLiberty Mortgage demand drops to the lowest levels since 1996 as interest rates hit 8%. Mortgage applications for home purchases are down 22% compared to a year ago. Rising rates are pushing more potential homebuyers out of the market but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising …
Hedge Funds continue adding to their short U.S. Treasuries futures position which has now reached the largest short position in history pic.twitter.com/5VtUeUb7JQ — Barchart (@Barchart) October 11, 2023 I believe Bank of America is insolvent with a 6% Fed funds rate, leverage explodes. If your core capital is impaired, any …
How can we get FTBs onto the housing ladder?@AngelaRayner “Let’s make taxpayers insure taxpayers mortgages. If taxpayers don’t pay the mortgage, then taxpayers pay it” So basically Angela, you wanna turn us taxpayers into a giant Credit Default Swap? You ppl are dangerous. https://t.co/mBuif4m1Tz — Mike Cosgrove (@mikecosgrove) October 8, …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who? Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is up to almost 8%, the highest since …
by John-Wetter-2310 If you’re picturing a bunch of bank executives in capes, cackling maniacally as they raise interest rates, you’re not alone. The incredibly sharp rise in mortgage rates has left prospective buyers shocked. In fact, mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1995. Why is this happening? …
Student loan payments start again this month, and mortgage rates just hit 8%. My company is usually a little high, even Rocket Mortgage is showing 7.846% with 2.25 points. Not fear mongering, but its gonna be a “winter of death”. Biden got it right, but was talking about the market, …
Look at the chart. 2.9% in Feb 2022 to over 8% today. Home prices would have to drop 32% just from today’s prices to pay the same as you would have in 2021. This is insane. Forget overvalued, this market is collapsing…. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US Could you even imagine having to sell …
by confoundedinterest17 Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate is up to 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. That means that mortgage rates are up 69% under Biden. That is in spite of $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS being held on The Fed’s balance sheet. As the 10-year Treasury yield is up …
by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market is slippin’ into darkness under Bidenomics. With existing home sales at their lowest since 2010 and new home sales finally hitting the wall, pending home sales were expected to decline MoM in August after an uptick in July (amid soaring mortgage rates and plunging affordability) …
by confoundedinterest17 Wasting away again in Biden’s Mortgage Market! Looking for our lost economy. Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year …