markets…

Markets tanked in 1Q18, 1Q20, 1Q22. And there are signs everywhere that the pattern is going to hold into 1Q24.

https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/12/weekly-commentary-2023-year-in-review.html Amazingly, the MMF complex has become the predominant financier to one of history’s greatest leveraged speculations – a speculative Bubble now at the heart of ongoing government finance Bubble “terminal phase” excess. Even more stunning is the lax regulatory environment for such a critical – with well-recognized vulnerability – financial system focal point. And …

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Hot markets are circling the doom-loop toilet bowl

BY DAVID HAGGITH And that doesn’t exactly lead to a tunnel of light. Photo by Pat Whelen on Unsplash Markets are in a doom loop and don’t know it because they don’t want to know it. Another voice chimes in today about Powell’s big blunder as Bill Bonner scoffs at investor mania and Fed miscommunication and market misinterpretation: …

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Rickards: Markets Wanna Party Like It’s 1999

BY JAMES RICKARDS The Fed rate remained unchanged as a result of the FOMC meeting last week. But what’s the future look like? Today, I’ll explain what happened in terms of policy moves, what Fed Chair Jay Powell believes will happen next and what will actually happen. The difference between Powell’s expectations and market expectations creates …

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Markets expect a Fed shift, though the central bank denies it. Greed levels surge, resisting pullbacks.

In the current financial landscape, a palpable tension brews as markets lean towards anticipating an imminent Fed pivot, contrary to the central bank’s official stance. The prevailing sentiment suggests greed levels in the market are soaring to multi-year highs, as evidenced by the resilience of the S&P 500, even in the face of a pullback …

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Markets may be premature; strong inflation persists, and massive spending looms. A significant Fed rate pivot might fuel inflation further.

Interest rate futures indicate expected rate cuts from March 2024, with a growing chance of cuts starting in January. Three weeks ago, markets anticipated an additional rate hike and cuts in June 2024; now, there’s a 2% chance of an extra hike and five expected rate cuts in 2024. Despite these market shifts, Fed Chair …

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The current market’s narrow leadership, echoing historical patterns.

The market’s recovery, reminiscent of historical patterns like the Nifty Fifty era, raises concerns about the sustainability of the current narrow leadership dominated by a select few mega-cap stocks. This market recovery has been unusual, with very narrow leadership, but it's not the first time. The early 1970s and late 1990s both were dominated by …

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Positioning for an economic hard landing and aggressive Federal Reserve easing next year is spreading across the US interest-rate markets.

Everywhere You Look, Rates Traders Are Piling Into Rate-Cut Bets (Bloomberg) — Positioning for an economic hard landing and aggressive Federal Reserve easing next year is spreading across the US interest-rate markets. In the cash bond market, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Treasury client survey, conducted weekly since 1991, found that the most active investors in …

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The commercial real estate meltdown is beginning to spread to different assets and markets…

The commercial real estate meltdown is beginning to spread to different assets and markets… The next victim – Texas Multi-Family Here's a worrying snippet from The Real Deal this AM: "For the past few years, Texas multifamily was one of the hottest real estate investments in… pic.twitter.com/BcIcYJEDVu — Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) November 21, 2023 …

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JP Morgan: $1.3T rundown in Reverse Repo has been a massive non-QE liquidity boost. PB: The only thing that saved markets

JP Morgan: $1.3T rundown in Reverse Repo has been a massive non-QE liquidity boost The only thing that saved markets pic.twitter.com/br1umuNwAX — Roberto Rios (@peruvian_bull) November 17, 2023 It’s wild to me how much people can ignore Bank failures dwarfing 08/09 Swiss Gov sealing records of Credit Suisse failure for 50 years Commercial Real Estate …

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“The median stock is down 36%, this is one of the worst bear markets in history, and everybody is talking about it as if it is a bull market”

“The median stock is down 36%, this is one of the worst bear markets in history, and everybody is talking about it as if it is a bull market” Check out the first half of my convo with @profplum99 here https://t.co/gTm6RwEkVPorwatch the full video on Eurodollar University… pic.twitter.com/p7GexJeTNN — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) November 13, …

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Alarming Decline: China and Japan Drastically Reduce U.S. Debt Holdings

Total holdings of US Treasuries by China are at the lowest level since 2009 👀 pic.twitter.com/UEv2v5SPj3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 12, 2023 Japanese investors are selling US corporate debt at a record pace 👀 pic.twitter.com/YxKZqSCuJe — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 12, 2023 Investor actions with U.S. assets are raising alarms. Recent data …

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Unprecedented Corporate Bond Exodus, Soaring Bankruptcies, and Housing Defaults Spell Trouble for Financial Markets

Investors pulled out a record amount from Corporate Bond ETFs in October, while US bankruptcies and housing defaults surged. Bank of America forecasts a record year for cash funds, suggesting widespread concern and a cautious market approach. Corporate Bond ETFs had an outflow of $9.4 Billion in October, the highest amount in history pic.twitter.com/xbvPs24jUq — …

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The stock market’s current lack of leadership mirrors the period preceding the tech bubble burst.

Back then, technology companies were the sole sector propping up the market from mid-1999 to March 2000. Today’s scenario bears a striking resemblance to those times. It’s remarkable how today’s lack of leadership in the stock market echoes the period preceding the tech bust. As shown in the chart below, technology companies were the only …

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Historic Contraction in M2 Money Supply and 3-Year Treasuries Decline Sparks Alarm in Financial Markets

Financial markets are sounding the alarm bells as the M2 money supply experiences unprecedented levels of contraction. Notably, this is the first time in U.S. history that Treasuries have recorded three consecutive years of losses. The concern deepens with reports of a substantial rally in U.S. bonds last week, primarily driven by hedge funds that …

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Chicago considers emulating city-owned grocery markets that compete with stores like WMT and DGIndustry

via WSJ: Last month, Chicago, population 2.7 million, launched a study on the feasibility of opening a municipally-owned grocer to get more fresh foods and spur economic development in a number of mostly low-income neighborhoods. Chicago, which has lost six groceries on its South and West sides in the past two years alone, aims to …

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An urgent issue looms over the car market. Shocking reports reveal potential car buyers being slapped with quotes exceeding $1,000 per month in certain markets!

The car market is facing an urgent crisis due to record-high auto insurance rates, with reports of potential buyers being quoted over $1,000 per month in certain markets, severely impacting volume and profitability. Brewing issue in the car market: Record-high auto insurance rates. It’s hurting volume and profitability in a big way, even more so …

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Investor Confidence Wanes, Triggering Major Outflows from Emerging Markets

📌Flow Emerging market assets experienced significant outflows, reflecting a notable decrease in investor confidence and a shift towards safer investment options👉 https://t.co/JKtv1wBK8o ht @BoFAML #markets #emergingmarkets#emergingmarket #debt #stockmarket #equity #equities pic.twitter.com/tnS8ympaOu — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 16, 2023

Florida is now the 2nd most valuable Real Estate market (Florida cities also make up 4 of the 6 fastest-growing housing markets in the US)

by TonyLiberty Florida is now the 2nd most valuable Real Estate market. Florida cities also make up 4 of the 6 fastest-growing housing markets in the US, with Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and Orlando all seeing significant home price appreciation (with property values up 72% to 89% in those cities) The inventory of homes for sale …

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Global Collateral Markets are Starting to Freeze Right Now.

🚨 This is How Global Collateral Markets are Starting to Freeze Right Now.🚨 https://t.co/KslI7M4UA3 pic.twitter.com/5ZnpfCvhuJ — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) October 12, 2023 Huge divergence. Looking like a US Treasury or bond bear market similar to 1940s or 1970s like @LynAldenContact @LukeGromen & Tavi have been predicting for awhile. 10 year US Treasury is the …

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Markets Live and Die By AI

by Chris Black The market moves make no sense because they are all driven by computer trading algorithms trying to out position each other. It can’t be understood by humans, because humans can’t perceive the triggers that cause the algorithms to move in one direction or the other. It is Skynet vs HAL. Look at …

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Jeffrey P. Snider: The Collateral Markets Are Starting to Freeze

via Jeffrey P. Snider Euro$ Collateral System is flashing red alarms, and it’s time to pay attention. Japanese govt bills are the epicenter, but this issue runs deeper. Brace yourself, because the global collateral system, which is vital for the financial world, is sputtering. Collateral isn’t just about USTs;; it’s about a complex web of …

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If the Fed loses control of the debt market, it’s Game Over for its asset bubbles & markets. 2008 will be a walk in the park.

Ummm. Houston we have a problem. 4.85% on the 10 year. Damn things are getting out of control Stock futures starting to dive. pic.twitter.com/5nUb1QoGLA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 4, 2023 The real fun starts when investors refuse to buy U.S. debt that’s going to be inflated away by the Fed. Last year, the main …

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Will the FED Rugpull the US Markets?

by Chris Black The Treasury market may be entering a period of historic volatility on par with March 2020 as leveraged investors have stalled in their purchases and a new marginal buyer has not yet arrived. When the Fed and commercial banks stepped away from the Treasury market in mid-2022, hedge funds stepped in (https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/) …

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Red flags in the financial markets…

https://t.co/ljTuDAet8Z — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 28, 2023 The Fed reduced emergency OCE bank liquidity by only -$3B. I'm sure it's just a coincidence the market selloff bottomed this week as well 😉 So what caused the Fed to pause the OCE reduction? Was this the plan all along or did it change/get delayed? …

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Confusion in the markets right now. Dollar Index tanks half a percent, oil pulls back sharply, precious metals and equities completely flat

by theSilverVigilante Strong US dollar backing away from 107. Oil tanks from hitting $95 overnight. A weaker dollar and weaker oil coinciding with a completely flat precious metals movement and completely flat equity markets. This is the confusion before the storm. Jamie dimon coming out and predicting 7.5% fed funds rate recently. Maybe the FED …

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