Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Chris Black Investors take for granted that securities dealers will exchange cash for financial assets on demand, but that expectation can only be met in benign conditions. The on-going deluge of debt securities impacts interest rates, but also makes liquidity relatively scarce as private sector buying power is limited while debt issuance is, at …
The fight against inflation is still ongoing… OPEC just said that global oil markets will face a massive supply shortfall next quarter. They expect a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day. If OPEC is correct, it would result in the biggest inventory drawdown since 2007. Voluntary production cuts by OPEC… pic.twitter.com/9I1ZPWrzU8 …
Credit @SagarSinghSetia LinkedIn — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) September 6, 2023
via energyandgold: In this month’s conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty we discuss the negative investor sentiment in the junior mining and commodities sectors. Bob also believes that investor sentiment on the US stock market has reached frothy levels, and the broader stock market is set up for a crash as soon as September. We then delve …
by Simian_Stacker The vulnerable ones go first, and then it spreads. ” Mr Lincoln said “all industries are represented” but the failure rate was particularly concentrated in start-ups and tech companies. ” Warning issued that 75% of all ASX-listed companies at risk of collapse Australian investors are facing a “nightmare” scenario as more than 75 …
“Chinese stocks rebounded on Monday morning after Beijing unveiled a raft of measures meant to halt their nearly monthlong slide. But the rally proved to be short-lived as foreign investors used it as an opportunity to unload $1.1 billion of mainland Chinese equities, according to Bloomberg data. ” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-dollars-flowing-chinese-markets-213851348.html
We're looking for a hard reversal on the daily for Tech this week. And then pull the plug on this final festival of idiots. Let history sort them out. pic.twitter.com/gIM5I7b2qh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 23, 2023 Another blowout for Nvidia. Last qtr, their gain was viewed as good for all Tech stocks. This quarter, their …
via Reuters LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters – Hedge fund EDL Capital is betting on further falls for China’s offshore currency and says the yuan’s slide could be the next “black swan event” to rattle world markets, according to an investor presentation this month seen by Reuters. The U.S. dollar has strengthened roughly 6% against the …
Real yields break things up here, at 185bps, the highest since Lehman. pic.twitter.com/7od1pAtJLB — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) August 15, 2023 Yes for sure. Bond markets understand that, on top of the continued large deficit spending, interest expense on the debt is going to start spiraling as rates increase. This expense will be nearly impossible to …
Explainer-How much worse can China’s economic slowdown get? HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s economic activity data for July, including retail sales, industrial output and investment failed to match expectations, fuelling concern over a deeper, longer-lasting slowdown in growth. THE DEMISE OF CHINA’S GROWTH HAS BEEN MISTAKENLY FORECAST BEFORE. IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? Activity data has …
By Graham Summers, MBA Nothing has changed in the U.S. in the last month. The primary framework for investing in the U.S. is as follows: 1) The stock market is bubbling up due to: a. There being too much liquidity in the financial system. b. Inflation, particularly core inflation remains elevated (4.8%). c. Stocks are …
Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …
Blackrock Exits US Markets to Avoid Corporate Debt Bubble due to Black Swan event on the Horizon
Just when you thought the debt ceiling issues were over, the government is ready to shutdown on Oct 2, 2023. This is the exact same day markets fell apart in 2008 & would absolutely trigger the same panic (see the charts below). Coincidence? This appears to be the narrative😏 https://t.co/CY0GX9zGuC pic.twitter.com/17oUOL8dsC — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August …
Italy intentionally causing a banking crisis? 🤨 "Italy surprises markets with the announcement of a 40% 'windfall' tax on banks" pic.twitter.com/HGycE4y8ud — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 8, 2023 ⚠️ 𝗜𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗔𝗡 𝗕𝗔𝗡𝗞𝗦 𝗚𝗘𝗧𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗣𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗟𝗟𝗘𝗗 Full Story → https://t.co/XK4Cljl110 An index of euro zone banks .SX7E fell as much as 3.4% on Tuesday, after Italy approved a 40% …
I will reserve judgement on today's strong open until we see the close. Because that's what happens in bear markets – strong opens, weak closes. What we saw all last week. But really, what could go wrong? pic.twitter.com/PnEtb0MYXR — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 7, 2023 Big divergence between S&P 500 industrials and leading economic indicators The …
Assets in money market funds have hit a record $5.5 trillion. With yields above 5%, this trend should continue. pic.twitter.com/gpRrtgBjoL — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 3, 2023 Bear Stearns Collapse March 16, 2008Lehman Brothers Collapse September 15, 2008 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse March 10, 2023******************* Collapse September 15, 2023 🤫pic.twitter.com/kfdPWKxt1dhttps://t.co/qBMYgTkITR https://t.co/VqtC8XyGSu — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The stock market is still purging some of its recent insanity this morning, but the real action has been in bonds. Fitch may have gotten everyone’s attention with its downgrade of US credit, but it has already turned into mainstream articles now pointing out what the financial media had been silent on. …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1685201566196748289 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1685637032415043585 “Why the Federal Reserve has made everything more expensive to make things less expensive” actual title of article by NBC, they to on to call this “A little bit of science and a little bit of art” Clownworld is authoring its own satire at this point. NBC News engages Orwell mode and puts …
by DAVID HAGGITH Each nation’s GDP is helping take the other nation’s GDP down, and the crash in commercial real-estate is being joined by residential real-estate. Even as the US economy came in looking surprisingly resilient with GDP growth at 2.4% last quarter, the other major economies of the world are at or in contraction. …
The economic news is getting really bad but markets are still rising. The brief final stage of the market cycle.pic.twitter.com/55ZY4MGgPy https://t.co/rX8hxr3YI3 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 25, 2023 The overwhelming temptation of every financial pundit is to lure sheeple into a market powered by five stocks:https://t.co/vCedAfNQWd And then after the crash tell everyone no one saw …
Anyone remember LTCM? We're facing 100 LTCMs at the same time. BOJ policy divergence from the rest of the world is a disaster waiting to happen. It doesn't matter whether they "tweak" policy next week. In global RISK OFF, the hot money always comes home. pic.twitter.com/Ydk6ApLQFR — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 21, 2023 Bulls, FYI. This …
CRE Dominos Fall: Starwood Defaults On $212.4 Million Atlanta Office Tower https://t.co/UsEj7FkpyP — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 19, 2023 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1681383187375693824
markets / auctions are great at getting people to tell (their version of) the truth a game theorist might call it the 'revelation principle' aka games where players are directly paid to reveal their private information (their truth)https://t.co/yBD1tvQXnf pic.twitter.com/JxY4FvHWiE — Professor Campbell (@abcampbell) July 18, 2023
Billionaires and corporate execs have dumped $9 billion worth of stock this year amid the market’s latest rally So looks like we are back here again. Repeat of end of 2021. When CEOs dump massively, we should be asking why. There’s a lot of negativity in thr economy, from debt, to interest rates, production, manufacturing …
Via SchiffGold.com, June continued a stock market rally that produced big gains through the first half of the year. But what exactly is driving this rally and is it really justified by the economic fundamentals? Peter breaks it down in a recent podcast and concludes that this is likely a bear market rally. June was …
Tight monetary policy has significantly deteriorated the housing market % of houses featuring price cuts reached record levels in 2022 Even though the % has reduced since, it's still historically very elevated pic.twitter.com/lnrApBVay0 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 29, 2023 Stronger than expected GDP. Rate hike odds now 90%, market's about to explode. pic.twitter.com/9FEzipo4SI — …
“Reality is financial conditions are the loosest since April 2022. Unlike Volcker or previous Fed Chairs he never even raised rates above core inflation.” https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1674381311681740803 h/t Simian_Stacker
