Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A missile strike that killed at least 15 people in a Ukrainian market was blamed on Russia. There’s now growing evidence it was fired by Ukraine. A missile that struck a busy market in Kostyantynivka, east Ukraine, was likely misfired by Ukraine and not the result of a Russian attack, a New York Times analysis …
1) Airbnb blowup will lead to huge amounts hitting the market at once. Disregarding the decline in profits from these, NYC just banned short term rentals below 30 days, that’s 40k units hitting the market 2) What needs to happen for the fed to sell MBS? Better hope inflation has really died down 3) There’s …
Currently, existing mortgage holders in Sweden are making monthly capital repayments that are on par with the demand for new mortgage debt. This is quite an unusual scenario, and it carries bearish implications for house prices. In simpler terms, it suggests that the housing market is facing some headwinds. Adding to this, it’s worth noting …
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is embracing AI technologies to enhance “market surveillance” and assist in enforcement investigations. The Wall Street Journal reports that in a recent Senate hearing, SEC Chair Gary Gensler revealed that the agency is actively using AI to monitor financial markets and aid in various enforcement investigations. This marks a …
S&P Global Ratings revealed that corporate defaults reached a total of 16 in August. Read more: https://t.co/9aNUPiiD0A — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2023 Providing a visual pic.twitter.com/jTSPphi6pz — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2023 The sudden shifts in consumer behavior should not come as a surprise. We went from record levels of stimulus to the …
by TonyLiberty Disney $DIS is facing a bunch of challenges that have caused its stock to plummet, and its market value to decline by over $200 Billion: 1) Declining Disney+ subscribers 2) Ongoing Hollywood strike 3) Fee dispute with the second-largest cable company Netflix $NFLX has seen a 50% surge in its shares this year …
by Chris Black If a company can not access the fraudulent market selling shares to the public, forced to buy them through IRAs and 401k accounts, they will go under, if there’s not a true market for their products. Nearly all publicly traded companies are functionally bankrupt. You can’t pay a CEO $250 million out …
by Chris Black Tesla is already worth more than every other automobile company on Earth combined. Waymo and other robotaxi experiments have already proved that the idea is pointless and we are still very far away from any real success. This reads like pumping a neckbeard crypto to $50 billion simply because it exists. How …
by IAmTheComedianII Next Wednesday’s CPI report is going to be devastating to the markets. As of right now the Cleveland Nowcast has August’s m/m CPI at +.8%, and the Nowcast is generally only off by about a tenth of a percent. Markets are going to freak the fuck out: Markets will reprice for higher rates Financial …
Here's an updated look at six mega-caps. Not a lot to love since those tight uptrend channels broke for Apple $AAPL and Microsoft $MSFT in early August. pic.twitter.com/HJqRsOXDTm — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 8, 2023 Warning: Nasdaq/Russell 2000 is back to the level seen at the peak of the Dot Com bubble pic.twitter.com/cAF8RhaCYT — Bravos Research …
Goldman Sachs to layoff approx ~2,500 in latest job cut announcement coming as soon as October $GS — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 8, 2023 As inflation cools and employment remains resilient, a US economic downturn is becoming less likely. Goldman Sachs economists cut their 12-month recession probability to 15%, down five percentage points from their prior …
Credit @SagarSinghSetia LinkedIn — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) September 6, 2023
This proves undeniably that France is willfully and wickedly suppressing our economies. See, they buy our natural resources, gold, oil, natural gas, bauxite, manganese, diamond, you name it, with the CFA franc that they themselves are printing for 14 countries. So, it means that… — Sy Marcus Herve Traore (@marcus_herve) September 5, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcPhwoOXWs Investors should fasten their belts for a volatile fall as September begins. This month is historically known as the cruelest for stocks, with data going all the way back to 1928 showing that Wall Street reports significant losses and enters into “correction mode” as soon as the autumn kicks off. The Nasdaq and the …
Banks are tightening lending standards consistent with levels that have ALWAYS led to a recession Buckle up pic.twitter.com/OjXqe4OpZN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1698498854453227530 The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/zEEaqCMETP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023
via energyandgold: In this month’s conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty we discuss the negative investor sentiment in the junior mining and commodities sectors. Bob also believes that investor sentiment on the US stock market has reached frothy levels, and the broader stock market is set up for a crash as soon as September. We then delve …
The rising mismatch between electric vehicle supply and demand is showing up at car dealerships as unsold EVs stack up. Dealerships tell Bussiness Insider that EV supply from automakers has been turned away as demand cools. Rising EV inventories and a Tesla-fueled price war could signal the beginnings of a pause in growth for the …
by confoundedinterest17 Billions Biden, the President who loves to (recklessly) spend taxpayer money (mostly on large donors). is going to have difficuly spinnig the latest employment figures. First, ADP jobs added only 177k jobs in August. Second, job openings (JOLTs) are collapsing (blue line) while the S&P 500 index keeps climbing (orange line). The face of …
by bitkogan In a classic case of “bad news is good news” sentiment, the stock market seems to be embracing the notion that a cooling labor market could trigger interest rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve has made it clear they’re data-dependent. As such, the Fed has not committed to implementing rate cuts that are …
2/ Recent market dynamics show a consensus for the "soft landing" narrative, spurred by a strong consumer base and a resilient labor market But, a deeper dive reveals emerging consumer weaknesses & the pivotal role H2 2023 should play in the unemployment landscape — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2023 4/ Indeed, compared to the …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.
by confoundedinterest17 The Talking Heads said it best. Bidenomics is burning down the housing market. Bidenomincs (or trying to recover from Yellenomics) is responisble for interest rates rising to flight inflation and the collapse of mortgage lending. And she was … Janet Yellen. Mortgage demand (applications) decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from …
I call this chart: Instant disaster, just add Powell. pic.twitter.com/T2WZ8uapyX — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 23, 2023 Bulls, do you have amnesia, or dementia? It matters to your treatment. March 7th, 2023:Powell Tells Congress Rates Are Going Higher:https://t.co/ZqCRUYGE06 pic.twitter.com/R1uNrul8H4 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 23, 2023 This is just a mind-blowing graph, showing the average rate on …
by confoundedinterest17 Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve! Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%. On the yield curve side, the …
Speaking of under-funded banks, Schwab just announced they are cutting jobs AND raising debt. https://t.co/Bd8grqcl0J Market not happy as exploding money market yields pressure banks to raise deposit rates or face mass exodus. pic.twitter.com/ugidUJHuIW — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 22, 2023 Financial stocks are dropping, moar BTFP liquidity is needed — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) August 22, 2023
