Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by TonyLiberty Florida is now the 2nd most valuable Real Estate market. Florida cities also make up 4 of the 6 fastest-growing housing markets in the US, with Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and Orlando all seeing significant home price appreciation (with property values up 72% to 89% in those cities) The inventory of homes for sale …
by Chris Black https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-the-signals-from-the-bond-market-are-truly-terrifying-20231012/ [The sum of all bond market fears is that the combination of deficits, QE, ultra-low rates and a general market mania (think NFTs, crypto and meme stocks) built a house of cards in the global economy that’s just starting to crash down. Yes, silly season has been over for awhile but …
Historians will look back in astonishment that this wasn’t front page news. — Wolf 🐺 (@WorldByWolf) October 12, 2023 After a brief break in the last few days, we are back to the new normal: Stocks and bonds being positively correlated, particularly during down days. One thing seems evident: We are no longer in the …
Yep this is one of the many metrics falling down in the labor market pic.twitter.com/fzMC6yWFGE — RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) October 12, 2023 Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 is now over 60% This level has been seen only 2 times since 1960 Both times, it ended in severe economic downturns While the Fed still …
🇸🇪 It unfortunately looks like the labour market part of the Swedish recession has arrived… pic.twitter.com/XYOkHD7Rer — Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) October 12, 2023
Emerging Market Stocks have fallen to their lowest valuation relative to the S&P 500 in AT LEAST 36 years pic.twitter.com/QrwRdszRl7 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 11, 2023
Canada’s housing market is causing alarm bells, and with more homes listed, many folks just aren’t buying. The Bank of Canada’s financial review highlights debt worries and younger homeowners taking a step back from the market. https://t.co/IqveoD5lGS Harsh new reality for homeowners as listings rise and buyer-pool shrinksIn its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank …
In the last 24 hours: – Mortgage rates hit +8.09%– Credit card interest rate hits record high– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months– China planning +$137 billion stimulus– War continues on in Israel But guess what? Stocks are… — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 10, 2023 …
The recent “blockbuster” jobs report masks some concerning realities: nearly half of the new jobs are part-time or double-counted, and approximately 5 million Americans remain out of the job market, potentially pushing the real unemployment rate close to 7%. Turns out that “blockbuster” jobs report was hiding a lot. Almost half of new jobs are …
by Quant2011 India and Poland. Yes, China, Russia, Turkey and Uzbekistan added a lot of gold too- but they got this gold from their own mines. They were not forced to buy that gold from other nations. This little aspect is totally ignored by all PM experts. All the above listed central banks bought only …
by LateApostate The Investment Association keeps a pretty good track of it https://www.theia.org/news/press-releases/net-fund-flows-remain-positive-while-fixed-income-funds-turn-outflow#:~:text=Tracker%20funds%20saw%20net%20retail,6%25. Calastone published figures that show that active funds have seen outflows of USD 8.5 billion from retail investors, while passive funds have seen inflows of USD 6.7 billion in the UK. Moving into tracker funds has been boasted as a safe bet …
The energy minister of Saudi Arabia says OPEC+ is ready to wait months for insights from "actual data" before modifying policies in response to price fluctuations in the crude market. Keyword:Months. This is going to be a wild and unpredictable ride. Energy. — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 8, 2023 Down futures just opened ~200 …
It seems like the global economy is in a tough spot. There are a lot of problems, like conflicts and debts, and it’s affecting how things are going. People aren’t feeling too confident about it, especially in developed countries where things might even get worse. Well, folks, it’s no secret that our debt situation is …
by Michael History is starting to repeat itself. In 2008, bond prices crashed before stock prices did. Here in 2023, bond prices are crashing again. In fact, we are currently witnessing one of the greatest financial crashes in U.S. history at this moment. Of course most Americans have absolutely no idea that this is happening. …
The public focuses on the stock market but this bond market is much more important to the economy. There are major consequences for all the banks who hold Treasury Bonds. The level of unrealized losses has probably gone through the roof and possibly hundreds of banks are technically insolvent if they had to mark their …
via Mike Shedlock: The Fed erroneously does not consider rising home prices as inflation. Here’s the result in pictures. Case-Shiller national and 10-city home prices vs CPI, Rent, and Owners’ Equivalent Rent Chart Note Case-Shiller measures repeat sales of the same home over time. This ensures an accurate comparison of room size, yard size, and …
by j_stars Japanese bond yields yoinking higher. Japan’s Federal Debt is 265% of GDP. Won’t be too long.
Ummm. Houston we have a problem. 4.85% on the 10 year. Damn things are getting out of control Stock futures starting to dive. pic.twitter.com/5nUb1QoGLA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 4, 2023 The real fun starts when investors refuse to buy U.S. debt that’s going to be inflated away by the Fed. Last year, the main …
by DrBlaBlason Full text on the announcement at the bottom of this post. For me, this was a big attraction to Fidelity for new accounts. Although I will be a legacy and able to continue sweeping to SPAXX, it’s a shame to know that future account holders won’t receive that benefit of auto sweeping to …
Section on how the global banking crisis will unfold once the derivatives market blows up, bringing in the new era of The Great Reset & CBDC 👇 https://t.co/Xsb9xXFLQH pic.twitter.com/2a9lnpmoDq — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 4, 2023 Nigel Farage comments on the recent call by unelected head of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, for world …
This chart shows the Ten Year Yield where 40 = 4.0%. Currently at 4.65%. View post on imgur.com Bloomberg today: "Rates aren't rising because of inflation, they're rising because of the bond market" Looks like they finally woke up to the truth 👇 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 28, 2023 Rates aren't rising because of inflation… …
Truckload carriers continue to exit the market at their fastest pace in over 5-years. Still a lot of capacity relative to demand, but as spot rates remain low and fuel costs rise, carrier exits show no signs of slowing down. pic.twitter.com/ckJqGPxIYT — Luke (@LukeFalasca) September 27, 2023
The S&P 500 is now down 340 points, or 7.5%, since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast. On July 26th, the Fed raised rates and said they were not longer expecting a recession. The Fed marked the EXACT high in the S&P 500 which just hit its lowest levels since June. Since then, …
by confoundedinterest17 Wasting away again in Biden’s Mortgage Market! Looking for our lost economy. Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased …
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says "we are seeing a breakdown again in a lot of the stock market" pic.twitter.com/hEKNDO31rk — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 26, 2023 $spx. We can see where it closes, but it looks to me like the neckline is broken on the #SP500 pic.twitter.com/UjfPujcYdW — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 26, …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1706683773809471667 US New Home Sales Crashed In August https://t.co/a5z87RkW9M — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 26, 2023 Sales of newly built homes reverse course, drop nearly 9% in August https://t.co/Lq2RTuNWjz @uscensusbureau — Diana Olick (@DianaOlick) September 26, 2023 Home prices in the US will fall 30%, per Jeremy Grantham. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 26, 2023 Imagine that. …
Prior to 2020, just ~4% of all outstanding mortgages had an interest rate below 3%. Now, a massive ~23% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 3%. The share of borrowers that have an interest rate of 4% to 5% fell from 40% to 20%. Meanwhile, just 9% of all… pic.twitter.com/820WdhZgDu — The …
