In the last 24 hours:
– Mortgage rates hit +8.09%
– Credit card interest rate hits record high
– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001
– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months
– China planning +$137 billion stimulus
– War continues on in IsraelBut guess what?
Stocks are…
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 10, 2023
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1711776044116476327
Firms with at least 500 employees cut 83,000 jobs last month, the second-largest decline since early in the pandemic, per Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 10, 2023
#recession … #GFC2 US #SmallBiz edition#NFIB #SmallBusiness 📉 👀 https://t.co/L7XSjHwEWF pic.twitter.com/H8IXo6sc4C
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 10, 2023
Since 2008, the Fed has recalibrated their financial stress index 4 times, because it wasn't signaling risk ahead of crisis. Below is the end result.
Gamblers have been conditioned by bailout to ignore risk. pic.twitter.com/GyEuv8wQ16
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 10, 2023
Bloomberg says volatility is muted due to aggressive option selling. https://t.co/AajVlKSIQq
For now. Other indicators are complacent as well.
This bounce started on Friday – same as the last 3 day bounce in March 2020.
Then the wheels came off the bus. pic.twitter.com/ujbhKndRCI
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 10, 2023
Stocks are in a bubble and could crash by over 50%, per Jeremy Grantham.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 10, 2023
The last rally failed at the breakdown gap. This rally is right in the gap. pic.twitter.com/tPJR62ddFp
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 10, 2023
Amid Historic U.S. Bond Collapse, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Tries to Calm Markets
“I haven’t seen any evidence of dysfunction in connection with the increase in interest rates,” Yellen told the Financial Times. Yellen also said she is not concerned about a repeat of this spring’s bank failures, which were triggered by rising rates, saying that credit quality overall was “very solid.”
The question becomes how much higher rates can rise without more rate hikes.
Interest rates are not ONLY a product of the Fed funds rate.
It’s very possible that we see mortgage rates rise toward 9% next.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 10, 2023
Goldman Sachs, $GS, economists have said that the surge in US Treasury yields to historically high levels over the last several weeks will crimp economic growth and sow financial risks.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 10, 2023
The International Monetary Fund is warning that around 5% of banks GLOBALLY are vulnerable to stress if central bank interest rates remain high.
The IMF also said that 30% of banks would be vulnerable if the global economy entered stagflation.
Again,
Hollywood ending.
— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 10, 2023
It's clear that most gamblers are still on vacation or in a coma. pic.twitter.com/BgvbqGALwM
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 9, 2023