Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Logical_Ninja Signs the US consumer is struggling more: 1) Outstanding credit card debt is at a record high of $1.03 trillion 2) The avg APR on that debt is at a record high of 21% 3) Credit card delinquencies hit a record high of 7.2% at small banks in Q1 The lag effect is …
1. Adjusting for inflation, home prices are up 118% since 1965, while median household income has increased by just 15%. (2/9) pic.twitter.com/NeogOIDjIu — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 21, 2023 Worrying Sign Not Seen Since the Great Recession: Mortgage Rates Could Hit 8% Mortgage rates exceeding 7% are straining the U.S. housing market with potential …
The fraud in the housing market is likely at an epic scale. https://t.co/K9NXaFXpXM — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 21, 2023 Reminder, the Federal Reserve from January 2023 found that there is so much occupancy fraud in the housing market that if they were counted correctly, it would increase the number of investment properties by 50%! …
by DesmondMilesDant The $1 trillion of high yield debt that’s piled up in the last 5 years is about to have a ‘day of reckoning,’ Bank of America says There’s around $1 trillion of private debt that’s headed for potential trouble, Bank of America warned. Most of that debt has been created by below-investment …
by K8B_24 There is lots of unrest globally. USD getting dumped by BRICS, China looking at Taiwan, Russia’s war with Ukraine still on. Germany now in a recession along with other European countries. The US not admitting they are already in a recession. Edit: looks like evergrande just filed for bankruptcy protection as well. The …
The market is on the brink of a weekly bearish MACD cross Signaling a downward shift in momentum This week's close will be crucial pic.twitter.com/XH14SmzsSU — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 17, 2023 MARKETS ABSOLUTELY POLEAXED INTO THE CLOSE; CORRECTION TERRITORY FOR EQUITIES LOOMS * — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 17, 2023 The S&P 500 just broke …
This week, mortgage rates in the US hit their highest since 2001. We are well above the 2008 highs and rising. After the Fed minutes were released today, rate expectations increased. Bumpy road for homebuyers. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 16, 2023 Mortgage rates …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230726.htm Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations: The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Market participants interpreted data releases as generally demonstrating economic resilience and a further easing of inflation pressures. The market-implied peak for the federal funds rate rose in response …
The state’s Department of Labor fined the company $2.6 million in unpaid wages, liquidated damages and administrative penalties. It is the latest in a series of setbacks for the collapsing chain. The New Jersey Department of Labor on Tuesday ordered 27 Boston Market locations in the state to close and fined the company nearly $2.6 …
via Mike Shedlock: The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) resumed its slide in August. Traffic remains in the gutter. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions …
by Chris Black Apple will be a $10 trillion company, Nvidia will easily hit $4 trillion, Amazon at $5 trillion. Valuations and the underlying business conditions do not matter. All that matters is the return. Algos don’t understand that stock A=X is insane. They are programmed to generate returns. As long as cash exists, printed …
Interesting that the ‘usual’ boomer toys (convertibles and coupes) are holding up the best. Only in America would people sign up for one or multiple >$1,000 a month car payments. Car market is large risk that not many talk about. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 13, 2023
by furysnakes The US economy is fucked. Housing is slowly collapsing, rent price are also slowly declining. Goods and services are now extremely overpriced even when accounting for inflation. I am a truck driver, and let me tell you how I see things from the road. Before the pandamic and this huge rise in costs, …
by texasboi5267 FACT: The only thing that has kept the US from recession has been the strong employment picture. The latest jobs report showed the employment picture worsening. My anecdotal experience: Things are getting BAD. I’ve been looking for a new job for a few months now and I was getting interviews left and right …
by Electavire A P/E ratio of 220 Forward growth ratios that LOOK good but are just inflated by early 2023 earnings being shit compared to 2022. Gaming, their second largest revenue source, is still down almost 40% yoy, with all their non data center sources being down some lesser amounts. Their ai darling, data center …
by betsharks0 Didn’t they literally say no rate cuts before 2025?
by confoundedinterest17 The US mortgage market is livin’ la vida Biden! And for the US mortgage market, la vida Biden in ugly. Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 4, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure …
The biggest car price bubble we’ve ever seen has already burst, and now we’re being warned that the auto market crash will accelerate even further during the final stretch of 2023. With production going up, and dealership lots starting to fill, the conditions that allowed new and used vehicle prices to shoot up are no …
https://finance.yahoo.com/u/yahoo-finance/watchlists/bank-and-financial-services-stocks
Markets are RED https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Money-market funds are offering the highest yields since **2007** The yield on 100 of the largest mm funds recently hovered at 5.13%, highest in 16 years –Crane Datahttps://t.co/5pmUpnhAae @WSJmarkets pic.twitter.com/eTNjZdcaod — Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) August 8, 2023 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1688894857132085248 Speculators are more short treasuries now than they ever have in history… at …
The Biden Administration announced intent to refill reserves almost a year ago. A target price of $67-$72 per barrel of crude oil was established. Currently, we are almost 20% above that level. A major issue. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 5, 2023
by mark000 The September/October window has high potential for the horror show to begin IMO. The global markets, financial system and economy will experience simultaneous heart attacks, leading to (or because of) super negative geopolitical developments. US Treasury Market Hits All-Time High of $25 Trillion in July This is a great example of how the …
Apple has lost its title as the world’s only company with a market valuation of $3 trillion, after the company warned it was headed for a fourth straight quarter of declining sales. Shares of Apple closed down 4.8 percent at $181.99, wiping more than $140 billion off the company’s market capitalization, in the stock’s biggest …
People are moving money from banks to money market funds due to high interest rates This means banks will have less money to lend and they will be more careful with who they lend to pic.twitter.com/jmdzNAqR56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 4, 2023 Capital Economics predicts 40% decline in commercial real estate values. Commercial real …
#Retail #investors are once again buying #market highs. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/TzbkxDvoee — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 4, 2023 Bloomberg is aggressively pumping 2 narratives this morning: 1) We can have higher rates for longer & a soft landing2) We are coming out of the recession Both statements are complete B.S. They're inversely correlated. The faster & …
via Lance Roberts “The stock market is not the economy.” Such is the latest rationalization to support the “bull market” narrative. The question, however, is the validity of the statement. During the 2020 economic shutdown and surging market rebound I stated: “There is currently a ‘Great Divide’ happening between the near ‘depressionary’ economy versus a surging bull market in equities. …
