Storm Clouds Gather: Housing Market Braces for Impending Turmoil

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1) Airbnb blowup will lead to huge amounts hitting the market at once. Disregarding the decline in profits from these, NYC just banned short term rentals below 30 days, that’s 40k units hitting the market

2) What needs to happen for the fed to sell MBS? Better hope inflation has really died down

3) There’s a wave of sellers who are holding back because they think mortgage rates are going to go back to 3% – it isn’t happening, and once that reality sets in there will be a multi year back log of sellers

4) Equities are also intertwined with housing again, how many funds have been buying up homes over the last few years with cash loans backed by equity holdings? It’s a lot

5) If fed doesn’t cut, unemployment will continue to creep higher, causing inventory to hit the market whether people want it or not

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There’s plenty of other points too, like foreign capital controls increasing, the possibility of war, and many other macro dangers

A housing correction is far closer than people realize, imo

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