Paul Tudor Jones: “For me, it’s pretty clear. You have Trump who’s locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who’s locked in on not cutting rates. That’s not good for the stock market,”

“For me, it’s pretty clear. You have Trump who’s locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who’s locked in on not cutting rates. That’s not good for the stock market,” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/4q3f48LSmT — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 6, …

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The labor market is still holding up.

Breaking: April jobs number: 177k vs 133k expectations. Revisions mehUnemployment stays flat at 4.2%Average hourly earnings +.2% vs +.3% expectations lightYOY +3.8% vs +3.9% exp Bond yields up a bit. Stocks popped some — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 2, 2025 …

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IMF says tariff revenue will reduce U.S. deficit from $2.6 trillion to $2.3 trillion — We need spending cuts, congress. Notice the final paragraph, bond market vigilantes will punish U.S. Treasuries.

The IMF projects the overall U.S. federal deficit will dip to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024 The multinational fund cited increased tariff revenues for the decline The IMF highlighted uncertainty surrounding the rollout …

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Economic recessions and credit market stress

by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was …

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