Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The bond market is fighting Trump: Despite countless efforts to calm yields, they keep rising. The 10Y Note Yield is now up +35 bps in May alone, back at 4.50%. As trade deals are announced, rate cuts are being priced out, giving Powell more of a reason to not cut rates.… pic.twitter.com/7LCuywFqMK — The Kobeissi …
Wow … UnitedHealth $UNH stock is down another 10% so far in pre market trading after it suspended its full year 2025 financial outlook along with announcing a new CEO 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴 pic.twitter.com/BcN0vBeoYp — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) May 13, 2025 BREAKING: UnitedHealth stock, $UNH, falls -11% after announcing the unexpected exit of its CEO and suspending 2025 …
Lower mortgage rates just don’t seem to be in the cards for this summer Sorry, Housing Market! pic.twitter.com/CCbABMbirx — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) May 12, 2025 https://twitter.com/Jedi_ant/status/1921663824295350763 pic.twitter.com/UCl19LyfeK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 12, 2025
People keep saying this housing market is nothing like 2008 and they're fucking right. Its worse. We have worse affordability, worse demographics, more speculation all done at lower interest rates with rising inflation. — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 11, 2025 pic.twitter.com/ZITWiXCCms — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 11, 2025 HOLY FUCK! Washington DC home listings are …
Epic shock, end of an era: The China car market of “growth and profits forever” has vanished for non-Chinese brands. Global automakers will sell 7 million fewer vehicles in China this year than they did in 2020. VW down a million cars. GM down a million cars. Jeep JV bankrupt. Suzuki out. Nissan deeply wounded. …
US layoffs are skyrocketing: US employers announced 105,441 job cuts in April, the highest for any April in 5 years. Excluding 2020, this was the highest count for any April since 2009. Over the last 6 months, there have been 699,012 job cuts, the most since the 2020 pandemic. Job cuts have been particularly high …
“For me, it’s pretty clear. You have Trump who’s locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who’s locked in on not cutting rates. That’s not good for the stock market,” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/4q3f48LSmT — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 6, 2025 “We’ll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to …
Why the US Treasury bond market is on the brink of total COLLAPSE. pic.twitter.com/WlhPEVaXkf — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 5, 2025 2/ The US Treasury bond market may be nearing total collapse This $27 trillion asset is nearly the size of the entire US economy If this market breaks down, the ripple effects across the …
JUST IN 🚨: Greed returns to the Stock Market for the first time this year – YESSSSSSSSS!!! 🥳🍾🤑🫂 pic.twitter.com/MWUTW1fPH0 — Barchart (@Barchart) May 5, 2025 Reddit goes all in on $PLTR holding $2,700,000 worth through earning Says today’s earning will be a nuclear event pic.twitter.com/6EXtFSCvIs — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) May 5, 2025 And people …
1994-1995 period the only time the US managed to achieve a soft landing. h/t RobertBartus h/t RobertBartus
If we don't get a deal with China soon, we are heading for an apocalyptic market and economy it's as simple as that. The probability of a deal may be ~20% with say 10% upside to stocks = +2% probable gain. The probability of no deal is 80% with -50% downside to stocks = -40%… …
JNK vs. SPXEarly warning sign that the market rebound has peaked pic.twitter.com/LCtMWAtdE4 — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) May 2, 2025 Something is broken that the S&P 500 can rally 90 bps on 19k contracts. Its a fk'n joke pic.twitter.com/9d4gcjdzWt — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) May 2, 2025 Liquidity in the S&P 500 futures …
Breaking: April jobs number: 177k vs 133k expectations. Revisions mehUnemployment stays flat at 4.2%Average hourly earnings +.2% vs +.3% expectations lightYOY +3.8% vs +3.9% exp Bond yields up a bit. Stocks popped some — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 2, 2025 NONFARM PAYROLLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate …
Big red warning signs are flashing in the Phoenix housing market. Inventory is now up 467% from its pandemic low three years ago. And just hit the highest level in a decade. There's a mass selloff occurring, as pandemic investors and snowbirds sell out. Prepare for… pic.twitter.com/d0c41Mxe87 — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 29, 2025
BREAKING: 44.4% of home sellers gave concessions to buyers in March, near the highest share on record. The percentage has increased by ~10 points since July 2024 and has DOUBLED since June 2022. In Seattle, 71.3% of sellers gave concessions, the highest share among the 24 major metropolitan areas. This was followed by 63.9% and …
⚠️Central banks have been AHEAD of the game: Since October 2022, the gold wealth of developed and emerging market central banks has DOUBLED. DM central banks' gold ownership hit $1.3 TRILLION while EM $800 billion. Poland, China, and India have been the largest buyers. pic.twitter.com/9RNfSBQuws — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 29, 2025 Chinese media …
S&P 500 earnings revisions have hit extremely negative levels pic.twitter.com/6cbNSE4GHa — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 29, 2025 Is this all just a bear market rally? Time will tell. The average bear market rally lasts 44 days and yields a 14.1% return (before new lows are made). pic.twitter.com/pSaXPNSMj4 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 29, …
McClellan Oscillator and market breadth has peaked.There will be pullback, the question is when. https://t.co/VAVBCvHRVB pic.twitter.com/aIOT02rbl2 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) April 28, 2025
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
Bulls refuse to capitulate, which makes this a very dangerous market. The volume oscillator has been a very accurate indicator for when a rally can be bought for more than just a few days. pic.twitter.com/nUQo9Efvc8 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 24, 2025 Trump was just caught in another market manipulating lie. Yesterday stocks were bid on …
1/ What used to be a thousands ? Now revealed as a Few $hundreds factory product. Same designSame MaterialsSame stitching Just without the logo pic.twitter.com/KVaPlmKs9U — ZOYA ✪ (@HeyZoyaKhan) April 23, 2025 3/ Luxury pricing = 90% brand cost only 10% Product cost pic.twitter.com/I4KoYl8y6v — ZOYA ✪ (@HeyZoyaKhan) April 23, 2025 5/ Deckers only 10$ …
Retail is going all in. pic.twitter.com/Gj452YIQke — THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) April 24, 2025 A lot of resistance in this region, from technicals to gamma, even hy spreads pic.twitter.com/clVN38XA3u — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) April 24, 2025 Bottom calls everywhere again. Still below 200 EMA with gaps unfilled. With brevity. It's a mess. Many perma-bull …
The IMF projects the overall U.S. federal deficit will dip to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024 The multinational fund cited increased tariff revenues for the decline The IMF highlighted uncertainty surrounding the rollout of higher tariffs and potential revenue increases The International Monetary Fund forecasts U.S. tariffs will …
by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was tightly coupled with funding cost pressures and a hard pullback in credit availability. But, post-2008, …
Zillow just cut their U.S. home price forecast to -1.7% over the next 12 months, and is now forecasting prices to drop in every major city. This is a huge shift in market dynamics and Zillow is now getting increasingly bearish on the housing market.
