Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Profit doesn’t come in flashes or fireworks. It’s earned quietly, steadily, and methodically. If you want to step up your trading game, the smart money still flows through the major indices, commodities, and bonds. These markets move with clarity and liquidity, unlike the noise-driven chaos you see in individual stocks or hyped headlines. Forget the …
Trump just admitted the housing market can't survive without taxpayer welfare and socialism – with all losses borne by taxpayers. When did it become FedGov's job to make housing even more unaffordable for legitimate homebuyers? byu/Boo_Randy_II inWallstreetsilver 🚨 *TRUMP SAYS HE'S 'WORKING' ON TAKING FANNIE, FREDDIE PUBLIC This is going to raise mortgage rates by …
I've always watched the RV market for signs of things to come…. pic.twitter.com/opwnfmY9aS — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 27, 2025
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes this week, drawing close attention from investors. Recent auctions have produced mixed results, with some maturities struggling to attract strong demand. This round of debt sales will signal whether investor confidence is holding steady or showing signs of strain. The previous 7-year auction …
JUST IN: 67% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest since 2008. This percentage has more than doubled over the last 5 months. Currently, more Americans anticipate higher unemployment than during the 1981-82, 1990-1991, and 2001… pic.twitter.com/oAw2AOUJ6w — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 26, 2025 The best leading …
Cherry growers in Yantai, Shandong, are facing heavy losses this year. Prices for cherries have dropped so drastically that they no longer even cover the cost of fertilizer. In fact, cherries are now cheaper than pork, so farmers would even save more money by feeding them to pigs. Around 50,000 kilograms of cherries remain unsold …
Right now, America is facing what might be its most severe housing crisis since the Great Depression. Home sales have plummeted to their lowest levels in over a decade. Young people are being priced out entirely. Construction sites sit stalled across the nation. The housing market, which has been the backbone of American wealth for …
🚨Container bookings from China to the US are COLLAPSING: Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US fell 45% Y/Y in mid-April, according to Vizion. Next will be a trucking demand DROP leading to empty shelves, lower sales, layoffs and a RECESSION. pic.twitter.com/4hJ4tg53fo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 29, 2025 🚨Container …
This isn’t just about higher borrowing costs; it’s a signal that inflation and debt are forcing a reckoning. Given the recent House-passed tax bill that could balloon the U.S. debt further, and the bond market’s reaction with yields hitting highs not seen since 2007, the pressure is on. NEW INFLATIONARY REGIME HAS BEGUN! This is …
Dip buying failed for the first time in almost 6 weeks w a red week posted on $SPY The winds are shifting — Merlin Capital 🧙♂️ (@merlinscapital) May 23, 2025 My main question about tariffs is if we see the EU attack the Mag7. The US might have a trade deficit with the EU but …
The bond market is jittery, with investors offloading bonds and pushing yields up, like the 30-year U.S. Treasury hitting 5.13%, the highest since 2007. A new House-passed tax bill, now in the Senate, could add trillions to the U.S. debt. Moody’s recent U.S. credit rating downgrade and sticky inflation are fueling fears. Higher yields mean …
The housing market is showing clear signs of financial strain, particularly among first-time buyers who are facing mounting difficulties keeping up with mortgage and debt payments. The numbers point to deeper issues in affordability and financial sustainability, raising concerns about whether the current trajectory is setting up for broader instability. Recent data suggests that a …
by Michael America’s housing market has been in a “deep freeze” for more than a year. The combination of very high interest rates and very high home prices has frozen millions of potential buyers out of the market. As a result, home sales have fallen to extremely depressed levels. When I first warned that we were …
https://twitter.com/NickWoolos/status/1925341976938893319 Ray Dalio says we should be afraid of the bond market. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 22, 2025 The problem with the swelling US budget deficit is that there aren't a lot of paths towards shrinking it other than cutting spending. But we've seen practically no will to do that any appreciable scale across many …
-Building Permits Dropped 4.7% (April to May)Building permits are a leading indicator of future construction. A 4.7% decline suggests homebuilders are pulling back due to weak demand, rising financing costs, or economic uncertainty. This is the sharpest drop in months and hints that builders are less confident about near-term sales. -Single-Family Housing Starts Fell 2.1%This …
by Michael National governments around the world are collectively more than 100 trillion dollars in debt. The United States accounts for about 35 percent of that total, China accounts for about 16 percent of that total, and Japan accounts for about 10 percent of that total. For a long time, national governments were able to fund …
The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction took place today, May 21, 2025, and the results were troubling. Investors showed weak demand, forcing yields higher and triggering a broad selloff in financial markets. The 20-year yield surged to 5.047%, up from 4.810% in the previous auction, signaling growing concerns about the government’s ability to finance its …
CTA and more specifically global macro funds did the heavy lifting so far, taking the reins after the biggest retail inflows ever. pic.twitter.com/DPEj91qljV — THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) May 19, 2025 Retail squeezing Wall Street into buying. pic.twitter.com/BCrILye83w — THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) May 20, 2025
PSA: If you’re house shopping it’s about time to start making some disrespectful offers. The market has turned. — Landlord 🇺🇸 (@live_free_603) May 19, 2025 “Wait for the housing market to crash before buying a house.” pic.twitter.com/RXdOdHPQnm — Finance Guy (@GuyTalksFinance) May 19, 2025 This week's housing data! Inventory is back to 2019 levels and …
The latest housing market data reveals a troubling trend. Foreclosures are rising again, marking a shift from the unusually low levels seen during the pandemic years. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit Report confirms that distress is creeping back into the market, with 61,660 foreclosures recorded in the first quarter …
Retail traders bought $4.1 billion of U.S. Stocks during the first 3 hours of today's trading sessions, the most in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/IooUGeT3xI — Barchart (@Barchart) May 20, 2025 Retail traders made history on Monday, pouring a record $4.1 billion into US stocks by midday, reversing a 1 percent decline in the S&P 500 Index. …
The CBO’s projections are arguably too optimistic because they assume lower interest rates than what the market is expecting. Using market rates, interest expense is set to double to 6% of GDP over the next 10 years. That why the Moody’s downgrade matters: In game theory, it’s… pic.twitter.com/qSP8Cpagcm — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) May 19, 2025 …
SAM ALTMAN PROMISED TO SHARE AGI WITH THE WORLD—NOW HE’S CASHING IN 5 years ago, Sam Altman told investors OpenAI wouldn’t chase profit. No business model. Just build AGI, ask it how to make money, and take 0.001% of the value while sharing the rest with humanity. Now? OpenAI is a for-profit powerhouse, with closed …
1. The corporate downgrades and defaults are slowly rising. To put the current corporate environment in perspective, we reviewed the United States corporate default since 2020. – Moody’s estimates that credit conditions in 2025 will be challenging enough that the realized… pic.twitter.com/opYe22beKh — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) May 16, 2025 2 (a) – Distressed defaults are detrimental …
We need a stock market crash immediately pic.twitter.com/gsgDHOZ3P2 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 16, 2025 This could not end well. pic.twitter.com/g8Lgm8YZso — tic toc (@TicTocTick) May 15, 2025
Inventories of unsold new homes are surging. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/AwjX2ZL4RU — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 16, 2025 Student loan repayment fully resuming is a headwind for the housing market. Rental, more than sales. The scale of the impact is staggering. Student loan forbearance gave 40 million Americans ~$500/month for 5 years. Injecting ~$240 billion annually …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1922734542676185216 Everyone lowers their expectations to just get into the ponzi scheme then the rug gets pulled. Then you're left with a house you don't want that's underwater pic.twitter.com/ZE4rH7vEYU — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 14, 2025
You can smell the desperation. Markets are clinging to a dream no one believes anymore. Beneath the surface, under the record-breaking P/E ratios and sky-high indexes, lies the same rot we saw in 2000 and 2008. Except this time, the cracks run deeper, and the signs are louder. Anyone calling this a healthy market is …
This time, it’s not the Fed cutting rates buying us time. It’s Trump rolling back tariffs. And now everyone thinks we’re back to normal. But even before the tariff war began, the economy was already soft. In December 2024, we got hit with terrible consumer data. Spending collapsed. That sparked a sharp correction. It was …
