We’re in the fake calm again, just like spring 2008; Tariff relief fooled the market, but the cracks are still spreading

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This time, it’s not the Fed cutting rates buying us time. It’s Trump rolling back tariffs. And now everyone thinks we’re back to normal.

But even before the tariff war began, the economy was already soft. In December 2024, we got hit with terrible consumer data. Spending collapsed. That sparked a sharp correction. It was the first real warning shot. People ignored it. They called it noise. It wasn’t.

Since then, we’ve bounced. A quick tariff reversal, some optimism, and the market came roaring back. Feels like 2008 again. Same setup, different cause.

Here’s how it went down back then:

  • Late 2007: Some economists and analysts began warning about a recession due to the subprime mortgage crisis and slowing housing market.

  • January 2008: The stock market had a sharp drop. The Fed started cutting rates aggressively. Recession fears were growing but not yet universally accepted.

  • March 2008: Bear Stearns collapsed and was sold to JPMorgan with Fed backing. This triggered mainstream media and investor panic—from this point on, recession talk became widespread.

  • Summer 2008: Oil prices peaked, and inflation fears collided with recession fears. The economy was clearly weakening.

  • September 2008: Lehman Brothers’ collapse on September 15 made the recession undeniable. This is when the financial crisis hit full force.

In between those shocks, there was a stretch of calm. The Fed kept cutting. Markets even bounced. People thought the worst had passed. It hadn’t.

We are in that same stretch now.

We had our version of March 2008. The tariff crash. A quick shock. Now the market thinks it’s safe again. People are calling for new all time highs. Like nothing happened. Like the weak consumer data from December never existed.

But the cracks are still there. The slowdown is still real. Rolling back tariffs does not erase the damage already done.

We’re not at the end. We’re not even at the beginning of the end. We are right in the middle of the illusion. The part where everyone starts to believe again. Just before the floor gives out.