Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
by Doditty6567 People keep pointing to the front month of Brent being around 102 dollars and acting like the market has already priced this in and has it under control. I do not believe it does. To be precise, I do not believe in the screen price we are seeing. I am talking about the …
Bessent tries to calm the oil markets and literally a minute later his senile boss has to start picking a fight with the Fed again. pic.twitter.com/NE1YiMdqNU — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) March 12, 2026 JUST IN: Trump demands "immediate" rate cuts 1% chance it happens — Kalshi (@Kalshi) March 12, 2026 🚨TRUMP DEMANDS IMMEDIATE RATE CUT …
Business expectations back to pre-pandemic levels. Real-time inflation? Already there: 0.90% CPI (below 1% since Feb). Expectations catching up to real-time reality. pic.twitter.com/mkNQS0DZJS — Truflation (@truflation) February 17, 2026
Fun fact: traders shorts on $VIX are heading towards ATH Shorting VIX (aka “Vol harvesting”) is one of the most popular strategies on Wall Street that can work for a very long time till a sudden jump wipes out many and brings things back to square one https://t.co/2GJr5biqiG pic.twitter.com/0ZDv3wThsy — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) January 9, …
This is one of those quiet setups that looks boring right before it bites. Vol is getting crushed even though stocks are barely moving, which tells you complacency is doing the heavy lifting. When UVXY and UVIX bleed this hard without a real rally, it usually means traders are leaning the same way. That works …
Nasdaq is forming a head & shoulders. Nvidia is forming a bear flag. Amazon is forming a head & shoulders. Microsoft is forming a bear flag. But none of these have broken down yet. Nasdaq is forming a head & shoulders.Nvidia is forming a bear flag.Amazon is forming a head & shoulders.Microsoft is forming a …
$JPM says consumers look fragile it’s down 4% But $spy $qqq is flat Genius market 不见棺材不落泪 pic.twitter.com/YZRdHt01SY — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) December 9, 2025 Worsening Banks will be forced to start raising mortgage rates soon as funding costs and margins worsen. pic.twitter.com/lw0gP6y9Xt — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 9, 2025 $GS is predicting a steady decline …
$VIX looks calm, but the rate of change is not. Higher lows, higher closes, and a seven-month high while the market sits a few percent off all-time highs. The tape is tightening, not relaxing. pic.twitter.com/InUuwhFXkH — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) November 27, 2025 can i have the permission to chart vix future? pic.twitter.com/IRJxCWvuCL — …
BESSENT THIS MORNING: – US-CHINA RELATIONSHIP IS GOOD – 100% TARIFFS DOESN’T HAVE TO HAPPEN – WE’LL SEE IF CHINA WANTS TO BE A RELIABLE SUPPLIER FOR RARE EARTHS so now we have JD Vance, Bessent, and Trump all de-escalating the situation within the past 24 hours BESSENT THIS MORNING: – US-CHINA RELATIONSHIP IS GOOD …
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO EUROPEANS: BETTER STUFF SOME CASH UNDER THE MATTRESS The European Central Bank now says you should keep at least 72 hours’ worth of cash on hand. Just in case the next crisis fries the grid, crashes the banks, or tanks public trust. Covid, Ukraine, Spain’s blackout, Greece’s debt meltdown,bevery time things …
Gold is holding steady – for now, but not for long. With the Fed cornered and global demand rising, $4,000 gold might be right around the corner. And if today’s bull market is like the 1980s run, how much higher will gold go? By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important …
This time, it’s not the Fed cutting rates buying us time. It’s Trump rolling back tariffs. And now everyone thinks we’re back to normal. But even before the tariff war began, the economy was already soft. In December 2024, we got hit with terrible consumer data. Spending collapsed. That sparked a sharp correction. It was …
OOPS! Investors haven’t been this bearish in 30yrs, BofA poll shows. 82% of fund managers expect the global economy to weaken, and a record number intend to reduce exposure to US equities. BUT “peak fear” is not yet reflected in cash allocations, which currently stands at 4.8% of… pic.twitter.com/k8xzjB6z4K — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 15, …
Is hidden funding crisis unraveling? If Trump’s announcement today of a 90-day tariff pause was truly bullish and risk-on, why did we see 10Y yields spike to 4.50%+, SOFR swap spreads collapse to -40.62, gold rip $107 intraday, junk bond yields hit 8.51%, and TLT get liquidated on record volume all while equities… pic.twitter.com/PVa9L4FA2b — …
To sum up the Pete Hegseth hearings: Drunk accuses him of alcoholism Cheater accuses him of cheatingStolen valor accuses him of lying The Democrats are a joke. pic.twitter.com/mU3q6U5uOi — CaliRN619 🚑🩺🚑 (@CaliRN619) January 14, 2025 https://twitter.com/chadcbianco/status/1879263262560403928 Perhaps the greatest tragedy of the last decade is how much time the nation has wasted trying to placate …
