Is hidden funding crisis unraveling?
If Trump’s announcement today of a 90-day tariff pause was truly bullish and risk-on, why did we see 10Y yields spike to 4.50%+, SOFR swap spreads collapse to -40.62, gold rip $107 intraday, junk bond yields hit 8.51%, and TLT get liquidated on record volume all while equities… pic.twitter.com/PVa9L4FA2b
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) April 9, 2025
Trump’s Tariff Pause Didn’t Stop the Selloff in Treasury Bonds
CPI swaps foreshadow tariff-induced inflation ahead
I like to look at CPI swaps to gauge what sort of tariffs the market is expecting. The 1y swap fell from 3.9% to 3.5% today. However, it remains about one percentage point above where it was in early 2025, foreshadowing a significant amount of tariff-induced inflation ahead. pic.twitter.com/Mdjvbkxojx
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) April 9, 2025
If last night was just Japan selling treasuries, wait until China starts doing it. 👇🏼
Now they know the playbook intimately. https://t.co/BJWpK025ig
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 9, 2025
42% of Mortgage Refinance Applications are being rejected, the most in history 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/uTR1L9UH8W
— Barchart (@Barchart) April 10, 2025
Microsoft is reportedly preparing for a fresh wave of layoffs in May 2025, with middle management roles set to be the most affected#MacroEdge
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) April 9, 2025