Early warning signs that the market rebound has peaked

by






Everyone said manufacturing was bottoming.
That layoffs were easing.
That Japan might surprise.
April just crushed that optimism.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell again — now 48.7.
Production collapsed to 44.0.
Export orders? Slid to 43.1 as tariffs bite.

And prices? Still rising.
Manufacturers are squeezed from both ends — weak demand, rising costs.

In Japan, industrial output shrank 1.1%.
Auto production nosedived 8.4% — a direct hit from US tariffs. Retail sales? Falling.

GDP now expected to contract.

Back in America, labor market not much better.
Sure, announced layoffs dipped. But jobless claims surged to 241,000. Continuing claims jumped too — signaling it’s getting harder to find work.

This isn’t a soft landing.

It’s a slow-motion stall.

The “turnaround” narrative is falling apart — one PMI, one factory, one job cut at a time.

Uh-oh! It looks like you're using an ad blocker.

Our website relies on ads and the generous support of readers like you to keep delivering free, high-quality content. Right now, we are facing serious funding challenges and we need your help more than ever. Disable your ad blocker and this message will vanish. You can also sign up for a membership to enjoy an ad-free experience while supporting our work: https://citizenwatchreport.com/plans/subscriptions/ Your support helps us stay independent, continue our work, and keep content free for everyone. We truly appreciate your understanding and thank you for standing with us.