Early warning signs that the market rebound has peaked

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Everyone said manufacturing was bottoming.
That layoffs were easing.
That Japan might surprise.
April just crushed that optimism.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell again — now 48.7.
Production collapsed to 44.0.
Export orders? Slid to 43.1 as tariffs bite.

And prices? Still rising.
Manufacturers are squeezed from both ends — weak demand, rising costs.

In Japan, industrial output shrank 1.1%.
Auto production nosedived 8.4% — a direct hit from US tariffs. Retail sales? Falling.

GDP now expected to contract.

Back in America, labor market not much better.
Sure, announced layoffs dipped. But jobless claims surged to 241,000. Continuing claims jumped too — signaling it’s getting harder to find work.

This isn’t a soft landing.

It’s a slow-motion stall.

The “turnaround” narrative is falling apart — one PMI, one factory, one job cut at a time.