Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Overall Consumer Confidence Index up 0.6 points to 91.2. Present Situation Index down 3.0 points to 116.4. Expectations Index up 3.0 points to 74.4. Data from Conference Board survey released today. Expectations still low and below key recession threshold. Slight improvement but mixed signals on current vs future views. Oil price relief mentioned as one …
That 0.9% jump in May retail sales grabbed the headlines. But if you zoom out, the picture looks a lot less impressive. Earlier this year, retail sales were crawling along with 0.2% gains or barely moving at all. One stronger month doesn’t erase the fact that a lot of households have been slowing down for …
JPMORGAN: BUY THE DIP, V-SHAPED REBOUND LIKELY JPMorgan Chase says investors should buy market pullbacks, arguing conditions support another V-shaped recovery despite geopolitical risks. Strategist Mislav Matejka notes volatility may persist, but a 3–12 month horizon favors… pic.twitter.com/lWOXJYnm35 — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 13, 2026 MORGAN STANLEY: S&P 500 CORRECTION NEARLY OVER Morgan Stanley turns …
*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone WOLFE: S&P 500 MAY NEED DROP TO 6500 BEFORE REBOUND Wolfe Research warns the S&P 500 could fall to ~6500 before a durable rally. Analyst Rob Ginsberg says markets haven’t shown true panic—key signals like volume, put/call ratios, and VIX structure don’t indicate capitulation. While 6780 support has held, Wolfe expects a …
The U.S. job market is unraveling quietly while most people cling to the hope of a rebound that has already failed, and the numbers now reveal an economy slowing far faster than anyone wants to admit, leaving millions of workers stuck in jobs they cannot leave while millions more struggle to find work at all. …
https://twitter.com/SoccerMomTrades/status/1939835719872106645
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …
by RobertBartus “The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices paid surged to 48 points and …
JNK vs. SPXEarly warning sign that the market rebound has peaked pic.twitter.com/LCtMWAtdE4 — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) May 2, 2025 Something is broken that the S&P 500 can rally 90 bps on 19k contracts. Its a fk'n joke pic.twitter.com/9d4gcjdzWt — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) May 2, 2025 Liquidity in the S&P 500 futures …
🚨🇺🇸245% TRUMP TARIFF BODYSLAMS CHINA — WELCOME TO TRADE WAR SEASON 2 The U.S. just jacked tariffs on China up to a face-melting 245% — yeah, not a typo — up from the already brutal 145%. Why? Because Beijing hit back and Trump doesn’t do chill. He also signed an executive… https://t.co/9uWfqezUUd pic.twitter.com/YHzkOpMrXr — Mario …
This is a fascinating chart for anyone looking at the gold-to-silver ratio in a historical context. Over the past 125 years, the ratio has only spent brief moments above the 100 level — extremes like this tend not to persist for long. If history is any guide, this doesn’t look… pic.twitter.com/BFjWJz4L2W — Otavio (Tavi) Costa …
Friendly reminder: U.S. markets remain extremely negative in terms of sentiment across multiple indicators — which, from a contrarian perspective, is typically bullish. However, equity allocations are still relatively high, highlighting a clear disconnect between positioning and sentiment. On top of that, given the unique market environment we’re in, a rebound is possible — but …
Famed hedge fund investor Steve Eisman, famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, now appears to be two-for-two. In an exclusive interview with Daily Mail, hours before President Donald Trump announced a pause on new global tariff hikes, Eisman said he expected ‘cooler heads to prevail’. At least for the time being, they have. On …
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Stock futures bounced on Tuesday in a slight reprieve from the market turmoil sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout that led to the biggest equity losses since the pandemic. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rallied 1,243 points, or 3.3%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were up around 3.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures also …
Every market drawdown comes with whispers of opportunity. Talk of discounts. Bargains. Bottom-fishing. But few pause to do the math. Losses compound against you just as powerfully as gains work for you. And the deeper the hole, the harder the climb. This isn’t just theory. It’s arithmetic. A 10 percent drop requires an 11 percent …
“FINANCIAL ANALYSTS SPLIT ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS BULLISH VIEWS: 🔸 FUNDSTRAT: Predicts a V-shaped rebound if tariffs are targeted, arguing markets have overcorrected (-8% S&P 500) and clarity could spark a rally. 🔸 Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Sees tariffs as a negotiable cap, easing worst-case fears and potentially stabilizing markets. BEARISH VIEWS: 🔸 YARDENI RESEARCH: Calls …
As we discussed in this past weekend's #BullBearReport, the #market is likely at a near-term low given the deeper oversold conditions. https://t.co/4YMHjPb1Lw@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/hoO5XBzZWm — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 24, 2025 Just a quick reminder not to get too #bearish on the #market until it #confirms that a #correction is more than just a correction. pic.twitter.com/TTApX8T8E5 …
Buckle up. The market might not be as stable as it looks. **SPY/TLT (MY BAD)!!😬 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) February 26, 2025 Maybe it's just coincidence, but this chart seems too significant to ignore. The consumer discretionary-to-staples ratio just formed a near-perfect double top, revisiting late-2021 levels. In my view, this is likely the beginning of a …
Food prices have been declining for the last 12 months and lowering inflation. But, if food prices turn, that could significantly impact all economic factors related to inflation, like the FED’s lowering interest rates plan. We check the food price charts and see that food prices could mix up a lot of plan in the …
"The hits just keep on comin'" – Casey Kasem This one today – in case you're told the initial rebound after a volatility spike is a good thing. Not so much when the market is still near divergent, overbullish, record highs. Not an investment strategy, not a forecast. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/e0q21AkQxg — John P. Hussman, …
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and the broad-based Topix climbed more than 8%. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its RBA cash rate later today, with economists expecting the rate to remain steady at 4.35%. Japan stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. Other …
Hong Kong’s tax revenue fell by HK$18.2 billion (US$2.3 billion) to HK$342 billion in the last financial year amid a slump in the stock and property markets, but authorities have said income is set to rebound as curbs on buying flats have been scrapped. Commissioner of Inland Revenue Tam Tai-pang said on Thursday he expected …
China’s economic landscape appears fraught with concerns as the rebound in consumption stalls and private business confidence loses momentum. In October, key indicators like the QuantCube Technology recreation and transport demand measure and the Morning Consult consumer sentiment survey recorded troubling declines. Furthermore, the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business poll echoed this sentiment, indicating …
by bitkogan Throughout 2023, TLT has been on everyone’s radar, with hopes of a resurgence. The fund has consistently drawn interest, attracting a whopping $16.68 billion since the year’s start, nearly doubling its assets. Yet, it’s mostly been a downhill journey. While it’s a stretch to claim today as the definitive low, it feels like …
Earnings a mixed bag after hours – Amazon up, Apple down. We'll see what happens tomorrow. The real story is the back up in bond yields, now heading to the 2023 highs. We are one too-hot data point away from breakout. pic.twitter.com/CLOOQnrAgs — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 3, 2023 This Apple report should be it for …
by scott_jr Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser: “The long-awaited rebound in investment banking has yet to materialize, making for a disappointing quarter.” Trading, which was stronger earlier in the year, also turned weaker. Citigroup’s revenue from that business fell 13%. JPMorgan’s revenue associated with trading equities and fixed income also dropped. “Most of the investors …
From the WSJ: Unrealized losses on bonds and loans held by U.S. banks are expected to have grown in the second quarter, potentially reanimating an issue that made investors nervous earlier this year. Meanwhile, pressure on profits is rising. A resilient economy and a steadier banking system caused market values for debt to generally fall …