“FINANCIAL ANALYSTS SPLIT ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS
BULLISH VIEWS:
🔸 FUNDSTRAT: Predicts a V-shaped rebound if tariffs are targeted, arguing markets have overcorrected (-8% S&P 500) and clarity could spark a rally.
🔸 Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Sees tariffs as a negotiable cap, easing worst-case fears and potentially stabilizing markets.
BEARISH VIEWS:
🔸 YARDENI RESEARCH: Calls tariffs a “wrecking ball”, raising stagflation risk to 45%, warning of higher inflation, recession, and supply chain disruptions.
🔸 GOLDMAN SACHS: Increases U.S. recession odds to 35%, citing GDP drag from weaker investment, higher costs, and global retaliation.
🔸 LPL FINANCIAL: Sees stagflation risk, corporate earnings pressure, and rising market volatility (VIX at 24.80).
🔸 WEDBUSH: Calls auto tariffs a “hurricane-like headwind”, predicting $10,000 price hikes and profit squeezes.
NEUTRAL/MIXED VIEWS:
🔸 CRESSET CAPITAL: Stresses risk management, saying markets could bounce or break post-announcement.
🔸 TS LOMBARD: Finds panic overblown, arguing markets already priced in tariffs.
🔸 STATE STREET: Says financial impact depends on tariff severity (narrow vs. broad).
🔸 PANTHEON MACROECONOMICS: Cautions against assuming manufacturing strength is sustainable.
KEY FINANCIAL THEMES:
🔸 Uncertainty fuels volatility: Markets await 4 PM EDT details, unsure if tariffs will be 10%-20% tiered, reciprocal, or flat 20%.”