Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Guest Post by Pam and Russ Martens at Wall Street on Parade.com: On March 30, 2022, two highly troubling events occurred: (1) Fed data showed that unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities at the 25 largest U.S. banks were approaching the levels they had reached during the financial crisis in 2008; and (2) the Fed simply …
‘Higher for longer’ tracking for much higher default rates. The free money has been taken away by the Fed. All yields are taking a dump on the party. Central planners at the FED have really done it. Onset of the Economic Avalanche Becomes Clear https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/onset-of-the-economic-avalanche-becomes h/t j_stars
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, US federal debt has on average doubled every 8-9 years. By 2036 US debt could be approximately 100T. If we make it that far lol. How do we get out of this financial mess? Neither party in DC seems able or willing to actually cut… pic.twitter.com/3evQTQdijo — …
The significant decline in the market value of Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, which make up over 80% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could potentially reduce the Fed’s assets by about $1 trillion, surpassing the impact of their QT policy. This would essentially bring their balance sheet back to 2020 levels, indicating the …
by TonyLiberty Billionaire investor Bill Ackman believes that interest rates are going to continue to rise, especially long-term rates. He says that the world is in a different place now and that investors are underestimating the impact of factors such as the skyrocketing national debt, the flood of government bonds in the market, and the …
Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports, didn’t mince words when he lambasted both The New York Times and The Washington Post. In a scathing critique, Portnoy accused these prominent news outlets of prioritizing activism over genuine journalism. He contended that their reporting lacked the essential qualities of truth and balanced coverage. This condemnation from …
Vice President Kamala Harris said young people aren’t buying homes because of “climate anxiety,” not mentioning the sky-high interest rates under her boss, President Joe Biden. “Young leaders” suffer from “climate anxiety,” which is “their fear about … whether they should have children, whether they should ever think about buying a home for fear …
This week, the Fed made it clear that they want core inflation down to 2% and that is not changing. Meanwhile, supply-side inflation remains a major issue for the Fed. Higher rates have become the new normal. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 22, 2023
The Bank of England on Thursday ended a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after new data showed inflation is now running below expectations. The Bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% …
The Canadian 10-year interest rate has reached a new 52-week high, driven by a recent surge in inflation. In response to this economic climate, the Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, has disclosed concerning data about its residential mortgages. As of July, a significant 43% of these mortgages had an extended amortization …
Record-High Household Debt: The fact that household debt in the U.S. has reached $17.1 trillion is alarming. High levels of household debt can strain individuals and families, making it difficult for them to manage their finances and save for the future. Mortgage Debt: The record $12.0 trillion in mortgage debt indicates a growing burden on …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 15th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are reviewing: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial …
With the new debt ceiling bill, the limit is UNCAPPED until 2025. Estimates show $4 trillion in debt will be added by 2025 at this rate. Meanwhile, interest expense is rising with rates. This is unsustainable. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 7, 2023 Pretty …
US records highest credit card debt level at $1.03 trillion, 4.6% increase from Q2, with 20.63% interest rate, 47% cardholders carry monthly balances, and $7,227 average debt, with Connecticut and New York having the highest. ✅ US credit card debt surpassed the one trillion dollar mark and is now at the highest level ever recorded …
The federal deficit is expected to nearly double this year, from about $1 trillion last year to $2 trillion for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 Why it matters: There’s no precedent for deficits this large, as a share of the economy — outside war, deep recession or pandemic. The WashPost’s Jeff Stein reported Sunday on the stunning projected figure from the …
by bitkogan The uptick in unemployment to 3.8% fits nicely into this week’s trend of “bad news is good news.” While the rise is largely due to a revised participation rate, the key takeaway is that it represents yet another piece of negative news. The market has been eagerly anticipating such developments, hoping they might …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g20/current/g20.pdf In June 2023, the total outstanding amount owed was approximately $1,850.9 billion dollars–up 14.7% from May! In the first quarter, the interest rate for new car loans was 6.4% with a maturity of 66 months financing $39,066. For used cars, 15.7% with 66 months financing at $23,537. Wut Mean?: Folks and businesses are …
Climate change will affect the way the Reserve Bank sets interest rates and the stability of the entire financial system, with incoming bank governor Michele Bullock warning it will affect property values, the way we work and the location of our communities. Bullock, speaking at the Australian National University in Canberra on Tuesday evening, said …
Macy’s executives have warned of a spike in customers failing to make credit card payments thanks to unprecedented pressures on household finances. The department store has seen its credit card revenue plunge by 36 percent this year due to the rise in delinquencies. Bosses said they had expected to see a rise in delinquencies post-pandemic …
2/ There's a noticeable uptick in narratives around the prospect of a "soft landing" in recent months Meanwhile, discussions around the potential for a "recession" are dwindling in 2023 pic.twitter.com/6jwkX6V8oq — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 23, 2023 4/ The notion of a 'soft landing' isn't confined to just discussions; it's influencing market behavior The impressive …
by mrmrmrj This is BEFORE student debt repayments begin again. It is clear that household interest expense has increased significantly over the past few decades. This is likely due to a combination of factors, including rising house prices and increasing debt levels. Given the current economic conditions, it is unlikely that this trend will reverse …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: Link : https://libertystreeteconomics.newyor… Caption: Maybe monetary policy is trying to align with Fiscal Policy. Caption: Conclusion : The impact of this New york Fed (liq controllers) paper on US bond market :
Economy and stock market is about to melt down. People have no savings left and cannot keep their heads above the rising tide of inflation. https://twitter.com/_/status/1692500764524986609 SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — This week, for the first time, American credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion. Getting into credit card debt at any time is not good, but …
The continuing lag will crush this economy! No more loans without very good collateral and prime lending is close to 9% and going higher. — Kerby Roberson (@KMACKROB) August 16, 2023
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230726.htm Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations: The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Market participants interpreted data releases as generally demonstrating economic resilience and a further easing of inflation pressures. The market-implied peak for the federal funds rate rose in response …
Real yields break things up here, at 185bps, the highest since Lehman. pic.twitter.com/7od1pAtJLB — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) August 15, 2023 Yes for sure. Bond markets understand that, on top of the continued large deficit spending, interest expense on the debt is going to start spiraling as rates increase. This expense will be nearly impossible to …
https://twitter.com/Blackpearl_1119/status/1689328367987040256 h/t Simian_Stacker
In Canada, some 25-year mortgages are being extended to 90-years. Here’s the difference in interest paid with a $500,000 mortgage and 5.80% rate: -25 year mortgage: $448,196 -90 year mortgage: $2,124,469 🥴 pic.twitter.com/F3OMBbsMs7 — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 11, 2023 https://t.co/STTij43EvE — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 11, 2023
The longer the Fed keeps raising interest rates while using their balance sheet to bail out banks and the ultra wealthy, the more deeply buried the middle class becomes trying to borrow their way through inflation. Personal interest payments: pic.twitter.com/UdeKfTTszD — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 US Core CPI is still at a staggering 4.7% …