Small lender default rate reaches 7.24%, highest since 1991, likely to continue due to high interest rates.
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Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
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Assets in money market funds have hit a record $5.5 trillion. With yields above 5%, this trend should continue. pic.twitter.com/gpRrtgBjoL — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 3, 2023 Bear Stearns Collapse March 16, 2008Lehman Brothers Collapse September 15, 2008 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse March 10, 2023******************* Collapse September 15, 2023 🤫pic.twitter.com/kfdPWKxt1dhttps://t.co/qBMYgTkITR https://t.co/VqtC8XyGSu — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August …
Total US govt revenue is about $5 trillion per year from all sources. Personal income taxes are about 42% of the total, so around $2.1 trillion. So roughly 1/2 of all personal income taxes collected by the US govt is going to pay interest on the $33 trillion national debt. — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) …
People are moving money from banks to money market funds due to high interest rates This means banks will have less money to lend and they will be more careful with who they lend to pic.twitter.com/jmdzNAqR56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 4, 2023 Capital Economics predicts 40% decline in commercial real estate values. Commercial real …
by Hephaestus4 Japan is selling U.S. treasuries and buy back Yen to defend its currency. This is not good for the U.S. as we go into a “doom loop”. Rates will continue to rise on the long end of the curve, which makes borrowing costs go up…which means more borrowing to keep this BS game …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Fiscal position is very bad and the US is beginning to look like a third world economy. And with Biden and Democrat AGs filing indictments against Biden primary Presidential oppoonent, that country is Venezeula! Like skyrocketing interest on the Federal debt to pay for green energy hustlers and the Ukraine war. …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/august-2023 Highlights: The BoE decided to raise the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25% with a 6-3 vote. New projections assume the Bank Rate will peak at just over 6% and average just under 5.5% over the next three years. Economic growth has been steady, but recent indicators show possible weakening. …
The UK housing market sees weak activity caused by rising interest rates, pushing mortgage rates above 6 percent for home buyers and existing mortgagors looking to refinance. British house prices fell by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July, according to mortgage lender Nationwide, as the drag from rising interest rates on …
Alarming Financial Stats of 2023: – U.S debt at record high – Interest expense on U.S debt to reach a record $1 trillion annually– Credit card debt at record high – Average credit card interest rate at a record 20.69% These are records we don’t want to be setting 🙈 pic.twitter.com/B5Aoaj4FFV — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 2, …
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation under Biden has been very painful for the US middle class and low wage workers. That inflation has resulted to surging mortgage rates thanks to The Fed’s counterattack. The result? Mortgage rates are up 134% under Bidenomics, while mortgage purchase demand is down -45% since Biden was selected. And mortgage refinancing demand …
Shit is expensive out there. h/t CharlieFoxtrot
Over the next 10 years, interest costs are projected to hit $10.6 trillion. Over the next 30 years, the CBO projects interest to total $71 trillion. Interest expense is expected to surpass defense spending in 2029, Medicare in 2046, and Social Security in 2051. 5/8 pic.twitter.com/Ssx9QlQoXy — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 30, 2023 Update: …
by Hephaestus4 Almost $1 trillion in interest payments now, compared to $1 trillion in debt from 1783 to 1981. US INTEREST TO SERVICE NATIONAL DEBT APPROACHES $1T * pic.twitter.com/EMFEWoCAw9 — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 28, 2023 The fiscal deficit in the US is already at nearly 7% of GDP and only set to get bigger! pic.twitter.com/ui2kpW9OmL …
Without ZIRP, how are many large public companies going make those interest payments?https://t.co/pfCc29lVwD — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) July 26, 2023 Everything is fine. 🔥🔥🔥Not a recession. Just one of the largest trucking companies in the USA filing for bankruptcy. 😳 pic.twitter.com/rzbvZMtbh9 — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) July 26, 2023 Beware: Bankruptcy filings have seen …
via Mike Shedlock: As widely expected, the Fed hiked its base interest rate by a quarter of a point. It’s the highest in 22 years. This was the 11th consecutive increase since March 2022. FOMC Statement Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in …
by confoundedinterest17 How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far …
by bullsarethegoodguys Societe Generale Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates last year, more and more economists warned that a US recession was imminent. But that recession has not yet arrived, and there’s no sign a recession is near even after reliable indicators like the inverted yield curve flashed red flags. According to …
This chart is FASCINATING! Corporates have seen NET INTEREST payments fall bc they fixed debt when rates were low (2020/21) and now are benefitting from higher rates on their cash. A reason why higher interest rates slow to drive a #recession. Thoughts @KeithMcCullough? pic.twitter.com/Ulm9RK2ch7 — Enrique Abeyta (@enriqueabeyta) July 22, 2023
Valuations have expanded significantly since Sept 2022 S&P 500 PE has risen from 19 to 25 in just 9 months pic.twitter.com/r6Mk47KHQc — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 Beware: Long big tech seems to be the most crowded trade in the market pic.twitter.com/eiTzAsXxMl — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 h/t Hephaestus4
The US government interest payments on the Federal debt are now higher than the annual defense spending. This is likely the initial stages of a trend, and if no solutions are implemented, other components of the fiscal agenda may soon be constrained by the escalating cost of… pic.twitter.com/hBY2haxNyG — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 20, …
High interest rates continue to cause rapid inflows to money market funds from bank deposits This should put pressure on banks causing them to maintain tight lending standards pic.twitter.com/wzZaFSQKjW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 19, 2023 Beware: Falling inflation is a major headwind to earnings, since the latter is calculated on a nominal basis pic.twitter.com/6pfHKixGLd …
by confoundedinterest17 What screams may come! Actually, the aftermath of excessive monetary policies under Bernanke, Yellen and Powell are coming home to bit the big banks. Interest expenses at big US banks are rising much more quickly than interest income. Across the six largest US banks, interest expenses are set to climb to roughly $78.7 …
Ht @RealEJAntoni And the longer that rates stay at this level, more and more debt matures and gets refinanced at these higher rates. So the debt interest expense is going to keep going higher. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WDEUlt9EFd — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) July 13, 2023 Every time US tax receipts have tumbled this much, the US …
via mishtalk: Interest rate odds still imply no rate cut by the Fed until March of 2024 despite year-over-year CPI inflation falling to 3.0 percent. Higher for Longer According to CME Fedwatch, the first rate cut will not be until March of 2024. CME data represents the futures and options positioning of traders. Only recently did …
Interest rates are at levels comparable to that seen during the Financial Crisis Tight monetary policy is going to be a major headwind for the economy in H2 2023 pic.twitter.com/i7eXcI5Lxf — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 This is the first S&P 500 new (52 week) high that is not confirmed by mega cap Tech. …
by Chris Black The direction this is pushing in is really intended to alienate anyone normal. Of course, they already did that with the tranny thing. But their goal now is very obviously to just continue to promote hatred of normalcy, and to get their supporters – the BLM/virus/Ukraine people – to become more and …
Average credit card interest rate hits new record high 22.2% pic.twitter.com/1RcUKBNGP3 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 10, 2023 The US 30-year #mortgagerate has spiked to a new high of 7.38%. This is the highest level in more than 22 years. It does not require rocket science to figure out that the spike will have a massive …