Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Global Central Banks Set to Diverge on Rates as Stubborn Inflation Stalks Fed, ECB Quarterly outlook on what to expect from monetary policy A less synchronized picture is emerging for the world economy Stubborn inflation keeping US and European officials in tightening mode is likely to further decouple global monetary policy in coming months as …
Rents are dropping. 📉 Hardest-hit cities include Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, where rental rates are down -6% over the last year. Meanwhile – taxes, insurance, and interest costs are up significantly. Cocktail that could mean forced selling in H2 2023. pic.twitter.com/nKiLmPRW0V — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 4, 2023 “Landlords who purchased in the last …
“Inflation has… pretty much come from nowhere.” -Christine Lagarde European Central Bank President "Inflation has… pretty much come from nowhere." -Christine LagardeEuropean Central Bank President They printed trillions of Euros and had negative interest rates for years. Now they pretend they didn’t cause any of it. 🔊 pic.twitter.com/awiyyZDI3k — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) July 4, …
“Personal savings have plummeted following C19 It’s now at the lowest levels since 2013 WIth credit card debt and interest rates at their highest levels, consumers now face major headwinds” Personal savings have plummeted following C19 It’s now at the lowest levels since 2013 WIth credit card debt and interest rates at their highest levels, …
We are digging into all of the data behind this new report. The unrealized losses seem to go well beyond just bond markets. Let us know if you'd like to see a Twitter thread explaining this situation in full detail. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, …
My banker just said they are doing tons of home equity loans. It's mostly to pay off the 20% credit cards with 8 to 10% home equity loans. Ask yourself if it's going to actually change the spending habits of people? Getting scary out here….. — ChatSOB (@TheSOBofAIChat) June 30, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 Jay Leno once quipped about the Obama meal. “Order anything you want and hand the bill to the person standing behind you.” Biden, like his boss Obama, is praciticing a similar strategy. Spend like a drunken sailor and just keep borrowing until the whole thing breaks. The barrage of fresh Treasury bills poised …
“It’s indisputable that an armed civilian stopped an active shooter last week. You almost certainly haven’t heard about it. Why? Because Las Vegas Police have gone out of their way to downplay it, while the media have shown basically zero interest.” It's indisputable that an armed civilian stopped an active shooter last week. You almost …
Weekly data for corporate bankruptcy filings has started to meaningfully deteriorate in recent weeks: Apollo’s Torsten Slok 🤔 What happens to firms that don't generate enough $ to cover interest payments, when they are unable to refinance their junk in recession?https://t.co/YfZkZuxK9E — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) June 28, 2023 https://twitter.com/EventuallyCC/status/1673764995996471299 The yield curve invertoooor Yield …
“The median California home is $100k higher than they were 4 months ago.” Source: https://t.co/05dmw17NEg — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) June 27, 2023 May new home sales surged +12.2% m/m vs. -1.2% est. & +3.5% prior (revised down from +4.1%)… median new home price -7.6% year/year to $416,300; average selling price at $487,300 pic.twitter.com/2NNF4UWeN5 — …
LONDON (Reuters) – The world’s central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Despite the relentless rise in rates over the last 18 months, inflation in many top …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Norway: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/topics/Monetary-policy/Monetary-policy-meetings/2023/june-2023/ Policy rate raised to 3.75 percent Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to raise the policy rate by 0.50 percentage point to 3.75 percent. The Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks implies that the policy rate will most likely be raised further in August. Inflation …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20230621a.htm Highlights: We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. The U.S. …
Three million middle class homeowners are at risk of having their savings wiped out by the recent surge in mortgage costs, a leading think-tank has warned. Analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests 2.9 middle middle income mortgage holders would have to raid their savings or ask for help to meet an unexpected …
by TheReignOfChaos Raise interest rates so the ‘sensible’ investment decision is to hold cash; why would they invest in assets and risk a market crash when cash is returning 5, 6, 7%? Meanwhile, buy assets as the currency inflates. Finally destroy the currency, leaving everyone holding money destitute. Force everyone to use a CBDC as …
After many years of working in the policy world, I have concluded that politics is at most 10% about making the world better and safer. The rest is at least 45% theater and 45% catering to special interest groups. Further evidence for my assessment comes from the recent grandstanding in the U.S. Senate on rail …
Interest costs are a quarter of the deficit, leading to unsustainable debt. Latest US Treasury data show we're on unsustainable path: interest on the debt was a whopping $61 billion in May, more than was spent on veterans benefits and services, education, and transportation COMBINED; interest costs were a quarter of the deficit last month: …
Can we make it a cool billion?Every day the Fed is paying $800 million in interest to banks and money market funds. This means that the Fed's net operating loss is now a record $68 billion. pic.twitter.com/DoY7j6cbgD — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2023
Some US banks are preparing to sell off property loans at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on repayments, a sign of their determination to reduce exposure to the teetering commercial real estate market, per FT. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 6, 2023 Good Morning Everyone! Delinquencies spiked in May on mortgage bonds …
Pretty soon the government will have to issue debt to just service the debt!!! If the U.S. Government is already running a yearly ~$1.5+ trillion budget deficit and you suddenly have ~$1.5+ trillion in yearly interest payments on the debt, you are in deep Ponzi scheme territory! https://t.co/fdZDB0bUgr — Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek …
The US will need to refinance almost half of its national debt in less than 2 years. Let's not forget that interest rates were at 0% just 15 months ago. Wait until these debt instruments need to be rolled over at 5% rates. One thing is true: None of us own enough hard… pic.twitter.com/qR7HVVBV1e — …
Guest Post from Wolf Richter at WolfStreet.com: Where does the money come from? They now out-earn inflation, they earn interest income, and they dipped into their assets whose prices ballooned over the years. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation and for seasonal factors jumped by 0.5% in April from March, after two months of declines and …
by okie1 New data just came in. Use of fed’s liquidity facilities declined again: View post on imgur.com This is where the money was coming from to create the demand for T bills, which is what was bringing rates down at the lower end of the yield curve. T bills are a cash equivalent that …
I was gonna put some into the CD. 3.75 apr. Just today they pulled that offer from the website. This is not looking good folks. AC