Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The interest payments on the national debt alone used up 40% of all the money collected from individual income taxes in October. This means a significant portion of the taxes paid by individuals goes just towards paying the interest on the money the government has borrowed. The US Treasury is now spending almost twice as …
The US will need to refinance almost half of its national debt in less than 2 years. Let’s not forget that interest rates were at 0% just 15 months ago. Wait until these debt instruments need to be rolled over at 5% rates. The U.S. credit rating outlook was lowered from “stable” to “negative” this …
Bloomberg’s report on the Fed’s apprehensions regarding US commercial office space and interest rates raises alarming flags. Moody’s staggering estimate of potential unrealized losses, reaching a colossal $650 billion within US banks’ securities portfolios, points to an imminent and deeply concerning crisis looming over the banking sector. The Fed sees risks for banks from US …
by confoundedinterest17 Another day, another dose of bad fiscal/monetary news. Not surprising with the US Treasury being run by Janet Yellen, who doesn’t seem to know much economics. In fact, with Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors in port, inflation and The Fed’s counterattack, we see that interest of US debt just hit $1 TRILLION! $1.027 trillion in interest …
Another record credit card debt Collectively, Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Steadily, persistently higher prices have caused consumers to spend down their savings and increasingly turn to credit cards to make ends meet. At the same time, credit cards are one …
This amounts to a doubling of interest costs over the past 19 months, according to Bloomberg. It is the equivalent of 15.9 percent of the Federal budget for fiscal year 2022. https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/11/07/bloomberg-u-s-debt-interest-bill-soars-past-1-trillion-a-year/ This is based on the current book debt of $33+ trillion. It doesn’t reflect the $211+ trillion in unfunded liabilities. (lower right) https://www.usdebtclock.org/# Make no …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 Gold is currently trading at $1,999.90 per ounce, up 0.72% from yesterday’s close of $1,983.18 per ounce. Gold prices are up 28.4% since December 2007 and have outperformed the 3-month Treasury yield by a wide margin over that time period.
Yeah, ain’t no crash happening with those rates. People will work 2 jobs to keep that 2% rate. h/t TonyLiberty
The era of near-zero interest rates has given rise to a series of what many may consider absurd business ventures, including the likes of “buy now, pay later,” car vending machines, extravagant digital art sales, algorithmic home buying, and virtual metaverse offices. During such times of readily available capital, even seemingly weak ideas manage to …
Financial winter is coming. h/t Mayhem4Markets
Small Businesses are now paying 10% on short-term loans, the highest level in more than 22 years pic.twitter.com/CFsSysV9zD — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 24, 2023
by John-Wetter-2310 ‣ United States 10-Year Treasury Yield hits 4.86%. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates and is also seen as a sign of investor sentiment about the economy. ‣ United States Prime Rate hits 8.5%. The United States Prime Rate is the interest rate that banks charge their best, most creditworthy customers. ‣ The …
The US’s mountain of debt has become a cause of concern for investors this year. The government is likely to spend more on interest payments than on defense over the next five years, per Capital Group. The ballooning debt burden could eventually chip away at the demand for Treasury bonds, according to the investment manager. …
by TonyLiberty The fact that cash now provides a better return on investment suggests a significant change in market dynamics in terms of risk vs. reward. When cash is paying a higher yield than stocks, it means that investors are willing to accept a lower return on their investment in order to have access to …
Consumers are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray told the FT. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury continued to rise on Thursday, edging closer to 5%. Higher bond yields are raising borrowing costs all over the economy, from mortgages to personal loans. American consumers are about to feel …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: High-quality debt created by data provider BondCliQ. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl… Caption: This H-portfolio contains 30 bonds covering major sectors such as tech, utilities, energy and financials, and includes bonds sold by Deere Capital Corp., Lowe’s Cos Inc., AMZN etc. This is the largest, most liquid, market in the world. It is heading …
Despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts, high inflation persists due to the growing deficits and the nation’s $33 trillion national debt, indicating that Congressional action to control spending may be the only effective solution to address this ongoing issue. Yes, and increase in rates is a huge problem too. With $33.529 trillion in debt, if the …
Eurozone interest rates are at all-time highs 🚨 pic.twitter.com/rEQorle5Gh — Barchart (@Barchart) October 17, 2023
by TonyLiberty Mortgage demand drops to the lowest levels since 1996 as interest rates hit 8%. Mortgage applications for home purchases are down 22% compared to a year ago. Rising rates are pushing more potential homebuyers out of the market but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation. …
Delinquency rates on credit card loans and auto loans are rising. But delinquency rates on mortgages as near all time lower. Why? Because so many mortgages are locked-in to low rates. Truly a unique time. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2023
“I’ve spent 35 years living in Washington; I don’t even recognize these people and what they’re doing” “Letting in 7 million people from the poorest countries in the world illegally and immediately putting them all on public benefits” “That right there will destroy the country, and they did it on purpose” 🔊 … Tucker Carlson …
We had a good rally on Friday, but in the intermediate term, we’ll probably see downward pressure on the stockmarket. Additionally, a jump in WTI oil to $86.29 due to the attack on Israel will definitely not help in the short term. Higher oil prices will translate to higher cost of goods and keep inflation …
by waitingonawait Friend thinks this will be a nuke to the economy. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-developer-country-garden-faces-fresh-offshore-payments-deadline-2023-10-09/ HONG KONG, Oct 9 (Reuters) – China’s Country Garden (2007.HK) may announce a restructuring plan for its offshore debt soon, local media reported on Monday, as the country’s largest private property developer faced another looming debt deadline. The developer, which missed two dollar interest …
Bond volatility has recently diverged from equity volatility. The only comparable time to this was just before the GFC. Bond volatility recently increased significantly; I wonder if the $VIX will finally catch up. pic.twitter.com/rU8F1jmANM — Swordfish (@Swordfishv44183) October 8, 2023 $SPY short interest is near historic lows. Have bears finally capitulated? pic.twitter.com/oBNs190hlO — Swordfish (@Swordfishv44183) …
from Joseph Brown: The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months What happens when it runs out? Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼 When all the money printing started in 2020, this account …
h/t SexyProfessional
WeWork Inc. shares slid 25% on Tuesday morning to their lowest price on record after the company skipped interest payments due on five of its bonds. The co-working firm withheld $37.3 million of cash and $57.9 million of in-kind payments on the notes, according to a regulatory filing, kicking off a 30-day grace period before …
by John-Wetter-2310 To break it down: • Since May 2021, the average 30-year mortgage has tripled, going from 2.6% to 7.8% in just over two years. This also marks a 23-year high. • The 10-Year Note Yield rises to 4.59%, its highest level since October 2007 – remember what else was happening around 2007-2008? Attached …
