Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Prices are flying in the worst of ways and going nowhere in the least of ways. by David Haggith Prices are flying. You’ll soon need to fly, too, just to keep up. The theme of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE), which measures inflation and which came out on Friday, was that the smallest …
Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation. August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the …
Yup. Basically pic.twitter.com/mKedOV6P44 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 The Federal Reserve is facing pressure on two fronts as inflation picks up and the labor market shows signs of slipping. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to explain why this puts the central bank in a difficult policy spot heading into …
Is now a good time to invest or sell everything? US stocks fell from record highs on Friday as Wall Street digested an update on consumer inflation that showed prices firming higher above the Fed’s target in July.
Ho lee fuk. 20% inflation in bound.😅 https://t.co/658lOvOEAI — The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 29, 2025 Breaking: August PCE: .2% as expected. 2.6% yoy as expected. Core PCE 2.9% as expected. Was 2.8% last month. Very tame numbers. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 29, 2025 That’s 53 months in a row above 2%. When policy …
Fed’s Common Inflation Expectations Index just got updated and makes JPOW’s JH speech look even more awkward, if at all possible pic.twitter.com/xh36qnP5nW — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 27, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1960748123900252638 “No consumer price inflation” Is this a comedy act? Show me the CPI in 6 months🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/tGtulWJ71S — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 27, 2025 Fixed 30-year …
Factories are shutting. Shops are closing. Workers are walking out under stress that has nowhere to go. The air smells of fear and exhaustion. Bank accounts are shrinking while bills climb. The institutions meant to protect us are either blind or complicit. Every metric screams warning. Every statistic is a cry ignored. The economy is …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
The Fed is no longer targeting average inflation of 2% Unless you already own assets, you will fall behind even more. Predominantly helps the already wealthy and boomers We are speed running the country towards every young person believing in socialism pic.twitter.com/BuabutOjZE — Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) August 22, 2025 People should listen/read the actual speech Powell …
Everyone is pouring on the coal and running things as fast and hot as they can. by David Haggith The captains of industry are giving it all they’ve got, and inflation is heating up. So much for recession. US manufacturing activity just soared to its highest since 2022 upon strong sales, but is this a boom …
So I’m supposed to believe the Fed is about to cut rates when credit spreads are sitting at multi-month tights? Cutting here = loosening financial conditions just as inflation pressures re-accelerate. That’s a policy mistake in the making and likely the only cut of 2025. The… pic.twitter.com/ubZOJscXpe — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) August 21, …
via notayesmanseconomics I am glad that I looked at things in an optimistic light yesterday because the news from the UK this morning heads towards the other end of the spectrum. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to July 2025, up from 3.6% in the 12 months to June. …
by Michael Do you feel knots in your stomach due to financial stress? If so, you certainly have lots of company. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about the cost of living and prices are rising by double-digit percentages all around us. There are so many people out there right now that feel like they are …
via notayesmanseconomics: After looking at China a couple of days ago it is again time to look East to Nihon this time. We can start with the latest economic news. TOKYO — Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in the April-to-June quarter from the previous three months, according to preliminary government figures released Friday, avoiding …
by confoundedinterest17 The Trump economy continues to boom. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows real GDP growing at 2.5%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report …
Guests are about to run screaming from the summer party because the flaming gob of goo is back. While it’s lurking at the perimeter, they are all about to see it flame on. THAT should be interesting! by David Haggith How convenient: Just as a “top economist” for Moody’s says that GDP may not be …
Looks like gold just put PPI to shame. Gold has beaten producer price inflation by around 600% so far this century. We have also crossed the 'paradigm shift breakout line' as we forecast 6 years ago. pic.twitter.com/4bFoyujuwS — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) August 16, 2025 https://twitter.com/AlessioTMAD/status/1956709412602515634 Tariffs blamed for inflation spike core goods push consumer prices higher. …
Fortune enfuego today. Immigrants worked for lower wages for many jobs that most Americans don’t want to do. If you need a dishwasher now it’s going to cost you. This is going to put a lot of pressure on wages which will of course push inflation higher. pic.twitter.com/F3WiAeC1qX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 16, 2025 …
Hotter inflation proves you can’t print your way out of rising prices. Inflation is diverging across regions of the US: Pacific Coast states such as California, Oregon, and Washington saw inflation rates above +3.1% in July, according to BLS data. Northeast states like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York also experienced… pic.twitter.com/O55X8qibCY — …
So, “Liar, liar, pants on fire” to all of Team Trump’s promises that you don’t pay for tariffs. by David Haggith Inflation is lighting the Donald’s backside on fire, whether he sees it or not. Wow! I know I said I was going to hold off on covering the full scope of inflation news until …
Q: What's your takeaway from the PPI inflation report? Top Trump economic advisor: Sir, I… come on. You're violating the rule here pic.twitter.com/J7aiJYl9IH — FactPost (@factpostnews) August 14, 2025 “Now our inflation is down to a perfect number. Hardly any at all. Yet our country is taking in tens of billions — trillions of dollars …
by Michael Well, that was quite a shock. We just got confirmation that inflation is starting to accelerate once again. That is really bad news, because the cost of living has already been stressing people out all over the country. In fact, one recent survey found that 86 percent of Americans are stressed out about grocery prices. But …
Can someone explain to me how $BTC the greatest “inflation” hedge of all time is down on a hot PPI? Maybe Bitcoin isn’t an inflation hedge after all and instead is a speculation gauge. pic.twitter.com/djupZTujUT — Kris Patel 🇺🇸 (@KrisPatel99) August 14, 2025 Suddenly, the hope of many #Bitcoin maximalists is shattered https://t.co/AjMn1C2Ikw — David …
If they cut the bond market will instantly drive the yield back up . Rates are based on risk we are an insolvent nation drowning in debt that can't even afford the interest only payments . — Jason the mason (@NobodyThan) August 13, 2025 YES. The Fed is going to cut with the most lagged …
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump takes huge victory lap on the economists and experts after latest inflation report “It has been shown that, for the most part, Consumers aren’t even paying these Tariffs, it is mostly Companies and Governments, many of them Foreign, picking up the… pic.twitter.com/M3b4E4iXuQ — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 12, 2025 Americans …
The Fed’s reacting to lagging labor data while ignoring leading inflation signals. Policy misfire incoming. JUST IN 🚨: The odds of a September rate cut have soared to over 94% pic.twitter.com/E8copNJVuO — Barchart (@Barchart) August 12, 2025 Overall US CPI moved up to 2.7% in July, the highest level since February. US Core CPI (excluding …
Real wage purchasing power down 89% since gold standard ended. The average hourly wage (in gold terms) just hit a new all-time low, going all the way back to 1963 The real purchasing power of the average wage for an hour's work, has declined by 89% since the end of the gold standard in 1971 …
U.S. July CPI: Core Inflation Hits 3.1 Percent Year Over Year Headline CPI rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching expectations. Year-over-year inflation came in at 2.7 percent, just below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent month over month and 3.1 percent year over year, beating the 3.0 percent forecast. The Fed …
Tariffs hit fast. Inflation moves slower but with purpose. The consumer price index (CPI) doesn’t capture the full story. When tariffs arrive, importers take the initial hit, but CPI only partially reflects that cost. It undervalues imported goods, ignores wholesale price spikes, and delays the real impact of healthcare and insurance through flawed measurements. In …
