The Fed is no longer targeting average inflation of 2%. Get ready for a decade of 5% average inflation. Gold should be up 10%. We are heading into Weimarzvuela

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The job market is getting worse, and that’s masking the fact that inflation isn’t really improving, it’s just stuck at a high level. Businesses are still getting crushed by elevated costs, even as demand weakens. Then the Fed sees rising unemployment and cuts rates, thinking it’s helping. But lower rates can offset the slowdown in demand just enough to keep inflation alive, while that same inflation is high enough to break business owners. That leads to more layoffs and closures, which the Fed responds to with deeper cuts. If inflation stays high while unemployment rises, they might misread the whole picture and keep easing into a cycle that makes everything worse.

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