Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
GoFundMe CEO says the economy is so bad that more of his customers are crowdfunding just to pay for their groceries. We thought 25% of consumers using BNPL for groceries is nuts. Now, this? https://t.co/4ejLhDyl6o — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) October 14, 2025 People are literally crowdfunding groceries. Let that sink in. The CEO of GoFundMe says …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Consumer Sentiment as measured by University of Michigan drops slightly. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Please consider the Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Report for October. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain …
Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the lowest level since 2009. Only 204,939 hires so far in 2025.That’s a 58% collapse YoY.Worse …
via notayesmanseconomics It is time for another trip to a land down under and my attention has been piqued by this. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for October rose to 4.8% from 4.7% prior, marking the highest reading since June. ( Forex Factory) That is from the Melbourne Institute and as you can see things are …
via Phoenix Capital Research The bull market in hard assets is accelerating, NOT slowing down. Gold first cleared $3,800 per ounce on September 26th, 2025. Today, less than two weeks later, it’s over $3,900 per ounce. Gold is not the only hard asset ripping higher, either. Silver was below $46 two weeks ago. Today it’s …
Consumer inflation stalling out around 3% and ISM Services prices paid says there is more on the way… pic.twitter.com/ITP5wGEh8h — Mosaic Asset (@MosaicAssetCo) October 6, 2025 Trump is ignoring inflation and its devastating him politically. pic.twitter.com/2131DQ9YLH — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 6, 2025
https://t.co/k3MwYP2f0P — terr 04 (@johnsmith7745) October 5, 2025
Even Leo's standards are feeling the economic pressure… Next thing you know he'll be spotted with someone who remembers dial up internet — Oliver 🇬🇧 (@oliverjones_x) October 2, 2025 1. Stocks: all-time high 2. Home Prices: all-time high 3. Bitcoin: all-time high 4. Gold: all-time high 5. Money Supply: all-time high 6. National Debt: all-time …
Inflation is rising in the US. pic.twitter.com/il7X0Arf6L — FastQcB (@FastQcB) September 30, 2025 Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has said the economy is “on the precipice of recession.” — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 29, 2025 *TRUMP SETS 10% TARIFF ON SOFTWOOD TIMBER, LUMBER IMPORTS Good luck building a home before 2029. — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) …
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.2 Trillion 🤑 pic.twitter.com/tAVX6YZsWm — Barchart (@Barchart) September 23, 2025 Every new dollar weakens the old ones and people feel it every day when groceries cost more, when rent eats paychecks, when savings vanish in silence. This is how empires rot, …
The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation rate, the core PCE price index, came in right in line with modest expectations, helping to cement expectations for an Oct. 30 rate cut. S&P 500 futures climbed modestly after three straight down days, with Intel (INTC) among the top early performers amid news that President Trump is threatening tariffs …
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought something which I thought was pretty much inevitable in these times so let us get straight to it. From the Riksbank of Sweden. To provide further support to economic activity and to stabilise inflation at the target in the medium term, the Executive Board has decided to cut the …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Powell says risks to inflation are to the upside. Risks to labor market are to the downside. The Fed’s live Press conference was interesting. I made some notes. Someone marked the YouTube I posted as “private”. You can Replay the Video from the Fed website. Powell Comments Its a “challenging, unusual …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought a further reminder of one of my themes from the past which is that the UK has a tendency to be an inflation nation. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to August 2025, unchanged from July.On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3% …
The real danger isn’t that prices are high, it’s that the velocity of wealth erosion is accelerating unseen. If inflation continues at the current pace, the average American could lose another 15–20% of real purchasing power by mid-2026, leaving millions unable to cover basic expenses. Gold climbing toward $4,000 signals a massive shift in investor …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Sentiment downturn strong in lower- and middle-income levels. University of Michigan Sentiment Index, chart by Mish Please consider the University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Results for September 2025. Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and …
via notayesmanseconomics Today’s economic data for the UK opens by rather emphasising yesterday’s subject and why Prime Minister Kier Starmer is not only putting more emphasis on economic growth he is rather sidelining his Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June …
by confoundedinterest17 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August. Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter! Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation. Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope …
Trump on radio this morning: “We have no inflation. Prices are down on just about everything. Prices are way down on energy.” pic.twitter.com/eUcQxwvrIL — PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) September 9, 2025 🚨 *TRUMP: POWELL MUST LOWER THE RATE, BIG, RIGHT NOW — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 10, 2025 LOWER INCOME CONSUMERS ARE ‘LIVING ON THE EDGE’ …
What is the PPI report? The wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined last month, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next week. This shows that inflation is cooling on the wholesale side!
Real inflation is about 6% while reporting 3% and that how you get 3% gdp growth. It’s all a fugazi pic.twitter.com/ocpBvz3qzQ — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) September 10, 2025 We're in a recession, but at least we'll cut rates into rising inflation pic.twitter.com/qZDnnkBNvA — Swingtrader (@Swingtrader) September 9, 2025
Gold is piercing a level that has held for 45 years. Moves of this size never happen in calm markets. Confidence in the current monetary system is fraying. The rally is powered by record central bank buying, ballooning U.S. debt, Fed credibility under question, and geopolitical fractures. The mainstream media has no idea why gold …
Bitcoin's fate lies with the Nasdaq. Won't be long. pic.twitter.com/uZRMxlNhNE — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 9, 2025 Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps. In modern history, a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions, making this one …
They can keep the whole thing afloat as long as they’d like The release valve is just the currency. Inflation is running at 3%-5% …and there's a 100% probability that the Fed cuts at least 25bps in ten days As if that wasn't bad enough, there's a 11% probability they do a jumbo 50bps cut …
I honestly can’t believe how clueless the market is. We’re on the edge of a full-blown depression and it’s still acting like it’s 1999. Inflation is gone, the next 12 months will be nothing but deflation. We've been in a recession since 2024, they've just been hiding it. Credit card delinquencies are already as high …
Trump’s legacy will be defined by America’s downfall, and everything he is doing right now makes that almost certain. Ray Dalio says it happens within 3 years max 💀 👀 👀 pic.twitter.com/A3zcUHg3lY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 2, 2025 Link:https://t.co/mtTG5lOBrc — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 3, 2025 Ray Dalio warned the U.S. faces a “debt-induced …
Gold is making new highs, measured, in this case, against the US dollar, which is making headlines. The chart below, however, is far more interesting. The asset management industry runs on two asset classes only: stocks and bonds. Sure, asset managers talk a lot about other asset classes or invest in ‘other’ asset classes that …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to dodge the collapse. This isn’t economics, it’s a knife in your back. Your money’s burning …
