Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
JUST IN: Target, $TGT, says stores have seen a 120% increase in theft involving violence the first 5 months of 2023. Earlier this year, Target said they expect to lose $1.3 BILLION due to theft in 2023. This is up $500 million from theft losses in 2022. Rising retail theft is… pic.twitter.com/Xav6ZxdzY7 — The Kobeissi …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2023/2023_08blsreport.pdf Wages and Prices expected to continue rising over the next 6 months. TLDRS: New York Federal Reserve Bank’s August 2023 Business Leaders Survey shows the region’s (New York, southern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut) service sector activity as stable for the second month in a row. Remember, services are where ~2/3 of …
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009. pic.twitter.com/Ujfb0Lco7l — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 Nominal yields keep going higher and this affects corporate bonds $LQD, therefore cost of refinancing is increasing. We can expect this chop into the market to keep going while investors move from growth to value …
As long as companies are interested in generative artificial intelligence, Nvidia stands to benefit. Nvidia shares closed up more than 7% on Monday, underscoring how investors believe the company’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, will continue to be the most popular computer chips used to power massive large language models that can generate compelling text. …
Reality is all that previous excessive money printing has goosed up prices far above the long term core trend. And only a hard landing would even have a shot at bringing it back to trend, otherwise the future is clear: Permanent higher prices and cost of living with wages not having kept up. And the …
So Lahaina, Hawaii has a population of about 13,000 residents. The entire city was burned to ashes in about 6 hours, most of it in 2 hours. There was nowhere to evacuate to… “As of the 2020 census, Lahaina had a resident population of 12,702. The CDP encompasses the coast along Hawaii Route 30 from a tunnel …
by Michael Over the past few years, we have seen food prices in the United States and other wealthy countries do things that they have never done before. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Global food supplies are getting tighter, and meanwhile global demand for food just continues to increase. For decades, many among the …
The US govt is dramatically increasing its planned amount of debt it issues in the next 12 months. 🚨 Monthly Auction Sizes +60% by August Next Year vs the previous year. The USA has to finance over $2 trillion in deficits, plus refinance all of the maturing debt at the new… pic.twitter.com/9HbpkN7USD — Wall …
Great chart from PPG Macro showing delinquency issues beyond the large lenders. It seems that small lenders are increasingly exposed to overly risky loans. Commercial real estate loans are yet another example. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2023 Throughout ‘23 US default risk …
by Chris Black Japanese investors have already begun adjusting investment portfolios away from U.S. bonds in light of rising FX hedging costs (https://archive.is/BGtTQ) and in anticipation of higher JGB yields (https://archive.is/8MWKR). Official sector data (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html) show a notable decline in Japanese holdings of Treasuries, a slight decline in Agency MBS, and a modest increase in …
by DesmondMilesDant This is concerning for bondholders. Stock holders love real GDP going higher. Inflation running above 4% is bad for both though.
via Michael Lebowitz: Jerome Powell and his colleagues endlessly reassert their “higher for longer” plan for interest rates. They aim to weaken economic growth, bringing inflation back to pre-pandemic levels. The Fed has little choice because the government can’t afford the Fed’s higher for longer stance for much longer! In the past few months, we …
by DesmondMilesDant Europeans are facing a new economic reality, one they haven’t experienced in decades: they are becoming poorer, per WSJ — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/runews/status/1683903111046234122
Authored by William Astore via AntiWar.com/Bracing Views, Days ago, I got a story in my New York Times email feed on “A Turning Point in Military Spending.” The article celebrated the greater willingness of NATO members as well as countries like Japan to spend more on military weaponry, which, according to the “liberal” NYT, will help to preserve democracy. …
This chart is FASCINATING! Corporates have seen NET INTEREST payments fall bc they fixed debt when rates were low (2020/21) and now are benefitting from higher rates on their cash. A reason why higher interest rates slow to drive a #recession. Thoughts @KeithMcCullough? pic.twitter.com/Ulm9RK2ch7 — Enrique Abeyta (@enriqueabeyta) July 22, 2023
An inverted yield curve systematically leads to a higher unemployment This time is not different pic.twitter.com/nynrlZ2eAZ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 Charts picturing the blow through of pandemic consumer savings are a fun way to view data But this headline is more fun: pic.twitter.com/egOvK5W5Db — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 20, 2023
2/ Rising bankruptcies coincides with bond yields hitting 4%, a level previously associated with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and UK pension fund crisis pic.twitter.com/tcC6aBY9UD — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 4/ A Deutsche Bank survey indicates that over half of market professionals anticipate market stress due to higher rates While 20% foresee minimal …
via naturalnews: Rates of car insurance have hit highest levels in the past 30 years as cost of claims soared since the pandemic, due to more accidents, higher repair costs, bigger medical bills and increased litigation. The Wall Street Journal reported that many insurers have experienced significant losses over the last few years, which only means that premiums will continue to rise. …
via mishtalk: Interest rate odds still imply no rate cut by the Fed until March of 2024 despite year-over-year CPI inflation falling to 3.0 percent. Higher for Longer According to CME Fedwatch, the first rate cut will not be until March of 2024. CME data represents the futures and options positioning of traders. Only recently did …
Its basically avg house price divided by avg income, so it shows how many years it takes to buy a house outright California median house payment doubles since 2020, limiting pre-tax income to just 39% For comparison, here's the same chart for Texas, a state that many Californians have been moving to. While it has …
I mean let’s get real. How does the housing market stabilize given these numbers? How many people have the income to qualify for a loan at an over 7% mortgage rate? The monthly payment is up around 40% yet people like Fortune magazine think housing prices will stabilize and move higher. I just don’t get …
by Martin Armstrong Fannie Mae admitted their forecast of declining home prices was incorrect. They initially projected that housing would fall by 1.2% in 2023, followed by 2.2% in 2024. Housing prices remain strong because this in an inventory crisis. There are 47% less available single-family houses on the market compared to the start of …
15% of new cars sold near end of 2022 have a $1,000 or higher car payment. A $700/mo car payment is a bad idea. A $1,000/mo car payment is a horrible idea. pic.twitter.com/UFyoALCXN6 — theficouple (@theficouple) July 5, 2023
“Despite US economic activity sharply contracting, the market has been moving higher This is not the time to FOMO” Despite US economic activity sharply contracting, the market has been moving higher This is not the time to FOMO pic.twitter.com/LymLphScDd — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 5, 2023 “The labor market has begun weakening Jobless claims has …
via WSB: In the rapidly evolving world of technology, NVIDIA has emerged as a leading player in the semiconductor industry. Known for its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, the company has garnered significant attention from investors. However, in the current economic environment, there are growing concerns that NVIDIA’s stock may …
via bloomberg: Gold edged higher as investors assessed increasing geopolitical uncertainty and recessionary signals. Bullion rose as much as 0.6% on Monday after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s extraordinary mutiny. Still, the upside for the haven was limited after Prigozhin suddenly halted his dramatic advance toward Moscow over the weekend.
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/distressed-firms-and-the-large-effects-of-monetary-policy-tightenings-20230623.html TLDRS: Since March 2022, U.S. monetary policy has become tighter. More businesses are financially distressed now than in previous instances of tightening since the ’70s. Studies suggest that these conditions could lead to significant declines in investment and jobs in the near future. The theory is that when monetary policy gets tougher, …
