Bankruptcies surge, bond yields reach 4%, a level previously associated withto Silicon Valley collapse. Fed maintains ‘higher for longer’ stance to curb inflation.

2/ Rising bankruptcies coincides with bond yields hitting 4%, a level previously associated with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and UK pension fund crisis pic.twitter.com/tcC6aBY9UD

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023

4/ A Deutsche Bank survey indicates that over half of market professionals anticipate market stress due to higher rates

While 20% foresee minimal impact, and approximately 17% warn of potential severe financial stress pic.twitter.com/zmdh7xuMnD

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023

6/ Historically, tighter lending standards precede recessions, as evidenced in:

– 1989
– 1999
– 2007

In each case, the Fed was in a tightening cycle pic.twitter.com/jQ9zDhOcqY

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023

8/ A broader view of total U.S. bankruptcy court filings from a different dataset presents a different narrative

Bankruptcy filings remain low on a relative basis, but have been trending higher pic.twitter.com/z1IiZLTKR5

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023