Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by j_stars The Japanese yen is poised to break out against other major currencies, as bond yields in Japan are set to surge. This could reduce the financing of US markets by Japanese investors, and put downward pressure on the dollar. Fed Repo Facility Sinks Below $1 Trillion as Bills Stand Out (Bloomberg) — The …
Higher deficits & unemployment, more govt borrowing, more money supply, more inflation… And the US wants to wage war in Ukraine & a Messianic one in the middle east? China sees the US Empire over-extended, & will soon heat-up the South China Sea…https://t.co/kSQOeRIsfH — St. Aubrun (@st_aubrun) November 2, 2023 FED'S POWELL: WE ARE NOT …
by TonyLiberty The fact that cash now provides a better return on investment suggests a significant change in market dynamics in terms of risk vs. reward. When cash is paying a higher yield than stocks, it means that investors are willing to accept a lower return on their investment in order to have access to …
It’s probably going to get worse for a while before it gets better. I don't think we are being told the truth about true economic data like inflation or jobs numbers 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/L6xrm2sBpp — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 20, 2023 Stock market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in U.S. …
Homebuyers today face paying $500,000 more in the course of a 30-year mortgage than they would have done two years ago after rates shot up to 8 percent. Analysis by DailyMail.com found that in 2021, an individual purchasing a $400,000 home would pay just $1,621 each month on their loan. However, today that figure stands …
Donald J. Trump Ron DeSanctimonious has the Poll numbers of a wounded bird falling from the sky. I am up on him by 57 points, and going higher. He has proven to be a terrible and inept candidate who even fought Social Security and MediCare. He will SOON be out of money and dropping out …
from Joseph Brown: The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months What happens when it runs out? Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼 When all the money printing started in 2020, this account …
The Bank of Japan, which holds a staggering 47% of ALL outstanding Japanese government #debt, has announced additional bond purchases to push #yields lower. This is as awkward as it sounds!The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the LOWER yields. pic.twitter.com/vAL0qWM87f — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 2, 2023 When your perspective is #debt sustainability on a macro …
‘Higher for longer’ tracking for much higher default rates. The free money has been taken away by the Fed. All yields are taking a dump on the party. Central planners at the FED have really done it. Onset of the Economic Avalanche Becomes Clear https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/onset-of-the-economic-avalanche-becomes h/t j_stars
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
TLT is cracking lows not seen since 2011. BREAKING: Bond tracking ETF, $TLT, falls below $90 for the first time since April 2011. The 10-year note yield is now trading above 4.50% for the first time since 2007. The 2-year note yield is now up a massive 500 basis points since September 2021. Treasury yields …
The significant decline in the market value of Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, which make up over 80% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could potentially reduce the Fed’s assets by about $1 trillion, surpassing the impact of their QT policy. This would essentially bring their balance sheet back to 2020 levels, indicating the …
This week, the Fed made it clear that they want core inflation down to 2% and that is not changing. Meanwhile, supply-side inflation remains a major issue for the Fed. Higher rates have become the new normal. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 22, 2023
via reason: As election season approaches, Democrats are touting the economic results of Biden administration policies aimed at improving the lives of working Americans and creating a more equitable economy. But ordinary Americans aren’t feeling the so-called success of “Bidenomics.” Superficially, the economy looks solid. As measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), it increased …
by DesmondMilesDant Imagine 5% 10yr bond yield.
by confoundedinterest17 Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Median sales price of homes in the US sank by -7.4% in Q2 2023. This is particulary dangerous since it was the worst correction in home prices since two rather nasty recessions of 1970 and 2008 (The Great Recession and financial crisis). This correction occured as M2 Money growth (green …
Makes sense, with the acceleration in credit card defaults hitting levels higher than even the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/AA0i4w9S97 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2023 BREAKING: Delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, per Apollo Group. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 12, 2023 The crashing office market will …
https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1701347076922089898 #gasoline on the verge of a major leap higher. Not going to be good for the inflation is over group pic.twitter.com/B7VTpZsLvT — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 11, 2023 https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1701348930884092060
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is a train wreck. But unlike E. Palestine Ohio, the site of a train derailment and massive toxic spill (for which Biden has yet to visit), Bidenomics is a continuing train wreck. The first chart is the record decline in US net cash farm income. Now in negative growth! Second, US office …
JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September …
by DesmondMilesDant falling interest rates for 40 years (between 1980 and 2020) means that every year money got cheaper to borrow when money gets cheaper to borrow, people and corporations borrow it and buy stuff with it, fueling bubbles in stocks and real estate meanwhile, other sectors crucial to supporting human life like commodities get …
Ideally, mortgage rates need to come down to a sweet spot. This would involve a level where existing home sales jump, but demand doesn't heat up too much. We believe that ~5% mortgage rates are that sweet spot. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 31, …
2/ Recent market dynamics show a consensus for the "soft landing" narrative, spurred by a strong consumer base and a resilient labor market But, a deeper dive reveals emerging consumer weaknesses & the pivotal role H2 2023 should play in the unemployment landscape — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2023 4/ Indeed, compared to the …
Macy’s executives have warned of a spike in customers failing to make credit card payments thanks to unprecedented pressures on household finances. The department store has seen its credit card revenue plunge by 36 percent this year due to the rise in delinquencies. Bosses said they had expected to see a rise in delinquencies post-pandemic …
by ihasanemail [So I’m a Mandarin-speaking Asian dude from Texas. This is all anecdotal, so this is only my first-hand observations. Feelings are useless in trading. You a moron if you trade off a story versus hard facts.] I was in Beijing for a wedding, then was a tourist through Chengdu and Harbin and various villages …
Treasury Yields Reach Highest Since 2007 Amid Elevated Rate Fears: Rising Real Yields Reflect Firmer Economy and Higher Deficits; 10-Year Yield Surpasses 4.34%, Marking Highest Level Since Financial Crisis The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain …
It is mid 700 While having a perfect 850 credit score is impressive, you don’t necessarily need it to unlock the best benefits. “Typically, once you hit the mid-700s, you’re considered to have excellent credit and there’s no practical benefit to scoring any higher,” says Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst. “It’s just bragging rights …
by DesmondMilesDant Source : Summers Sees 10-Year Yields Averaging 4.75% in Coming Decade (yahoo.com) The yield on the 10-year US government bond is currently sitting at around 2.5%. However, in a recent interview, former Treasury chief Larry Summers said that he believes it will rise to an average of 4.75% over the next decade. This would …
