Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
U.S. government debt is projected to grow by 9.9% according to consumer data. Federal deficits are now the primary driver of inflationary pressure in the economy. Treasury yields are elevated because the bond market demands a premium. Fiscal spending is effectively acting as a secondary stimulus to an overheating economy. Policymakers have zero room to …
We are past that point…Japan hurting…Europe hurting..we’re hurting https://t.co/Q0u8U8ceiV — Nicholas Mugalli (@RealNickMugalli) May 3, 2026 Inflation is on the way back up 🔥🔥🔥 Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/e6raSx52xu — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 3, 2026 1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. …
Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all report massive beats after the bell… Google Cloud explodes 63%; Azure hits 40%; AWS speeds to 28% growth… Total “Mag 4” cloud backlog now north of $1 trillion as enterprise AI takes root… Market verdict: The “OpenAI revenue miss” rumor was a bear trap for tech bulls… Alphabet revenue …
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months plunge from over 5% to under 3.5% according to the Bond Market byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Institutions are loading up on call options at the fastest pace ever recorded 📈🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/y6QmeCNC70 — Barchart (@Barchart) April 17, 2026 IMHO Sec Bessent is reading the tape correctly: core inflation is falling, the …
via Phoenix Capital Research President Trump just unveiled another massive TACO. The term “TACO” is an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” It implies that the President, for all his bluster and verbal aggression, is in fact quite opposed to conflict, especially if it hurts the stock market. Earlier today, President Trump tweeted the following: …
The latest U.S. economic data just hit and it is far worse than most people realize. Growth is stalling, inflation refuses to disappear, and traders are now pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The economy is slowing faster than anyone expected. The Commerce Department revised the fourth quarter GDP to 0.7 percent …
Business expectations back to pre-pandemic levels. Real-time inflation? Already there: 0.90% CPI (below 1% since Feb). Expectations catching up to real-time reality. pic.twitter.com/mkNQS0DZJS — Truflation (@truflation) February 17, 2026
Japan’s economy grew 0.1%, both on a quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year basis. This brought the economy back to growth, but missed expectations. The expansion also helped Japan avoid a technical recession. Japan’s economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. While it was …
Wow. Consumer confidence for those ages 35-54 years old fell in January to the lowest since November 2013 pic.twitter.com/WjTRLPDdnI — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 27, 2026 January Consumer Confidence Index from @Conferenceboard fell sharply to 84.5 vs 91.0 est. & 94.2 prior (revised up from 89.1), lowest since 2014; present situation also tanked, 113.7 vs …
MORGAN STANLEY Now expects cuts in Dec, Jan, and April to reach 3.0–3.25%. • Statement to signal risk-management cuts are done. • Several dissents expected. • No major change to dots. JPMORGAN Also expects a “hawkish cut.” • Statement to hint fewer cuts ahead. • Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027), possibly higher longer-run. • …
BREAKING: U.S. unemployment rate blows past expectations, soaring to the highest level in years. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 20, 2025 NOW – DHS Secretary Noem on H-1Bs: "Under the Trump admin, we've sped up our process and added integrity to the visa programs, to green cards, to all of that, but also more people are …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Consumer Sentiment as measured by University of Michigan drops slightly. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Please consider the Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Report for October. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain …
🚨 BREAKING! 🇨🇳 China's August Economic Data MISSES Across the Board: 📉 Retail Sales YoY 3.4% (est. 3.9%, prev. 3.7%)📉 Industrial Production YoY 5.2% (est. 5.7%, prev. 5.7%)📈 Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%)Jan-Aug 📉 Fixed Asset Investment YoY 0.5% (est.… pic.twitter.com/totPuytZVq — MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) September 15, 2025 China’s economic slowdown deepened in August …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Sentiment downturn strong in lower- and middle-income levels. University of Michigan Sentiment Index, chart by Mish Please consider the University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Results for September 2025. Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and …
via notayesmanseconomics Today’s economic data for the UK opens by rather emphasising yesterday’s subject and why Prime Minister Kier Starmer is not only putting more emphasis on economic growth he is rather sidelining his Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June …
Fed’s Common Inflation Expectations Index just got updated and makes JPOW’s JH speech look even more awkward, if at all possible pic.twitter.com/xh36qnP5nW — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 27, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1960748123900252638 “No consumer price inflation” Is this a comedy act? Show me the CPI in 6 months🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/tGtulWJ71S — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 27, 2025 Fixed 30-year …
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to future expectations of liquidity. https://t.co/BBAvbXcSzQ — 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) August 9, 2025
Grocery prices now change 100 times a day. Walmart’s electronic shelf labels are live in 1,000+ stores, with 2,300 targeted by December. Kroger’s rollout is ahead of schedule. Labels update based on time, inventory, competitor pricing, and weather. USDA’s July 25 forecast shows food-at-home prices rose 0.2% MoM, up 2.4% YoY. Eggs dropped 10.8% in …
*FED STAFF SAW RECESSION “ALMOST AS LIKELY’ AS MAIN FORECAST *FED MINUTES: TARIFFS MUCH LARGER, BROADER THAN EXPECTED pic.twitter.com/GoXICkMydr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 28, 2025 Federal Reserve officials are raising concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the weakening labor market. The latest FOMC minutes reveal growing worries that inflation could remain persistent, forcing difficult tradeoffs between …
Japan just blinked. Late last night, Japan’s Ministry of Finance said they are considering cutting back on how many super long bonds they sell. On the surface, this may sound like a dry technical tweak, but make no mistake, it sent waves through global bond markets. Here is why this matters. Fewer bonds issued means …
April to June 2008: There was a brief dip in expectations as some believed the worst might have passed and markets slightly stabilized. — Citizen Watch Report (@Citizenwatchrep) May 13, 2025 Once again, the #recession never came. Economists and markets spent much of the past year bracing for a downturn—citing rate #hikes, inverted #yield curves, …
Yields also rallying, rate cut expectations dropping. pic.twitter.com/IUSumebjkB — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) May 11, 2025
Expectations for Personal Finances drop to most bearish level in history 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/w7G2j4cmUP — Barchart (@Barchart) April 14, 2025 The % of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payments has reached an all-time high 🚨 pic.twitter.com/Nl1sM8jVQg — Barchart (@Barchart) April 14, 2025 60% of general admission ticket buyers at Coachella used Buy-Now-Pay-Later …
“The private sector’s hiring was much stronger than expected. Economists had forecast 115,000 jobs. Businesses added 209,000 jobs. The workforce participation rate climbed from 62.4 percent to 62.5 percent. The average workweek lengthened, a sign of increased demand for labor. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent compared with February and 3.8 percent compared with a …
Market overvalued ✅Market overbought ✅Bearish price action confirmation ✅ pic.twitter.com/G9f275GkAt — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 1, 2025 Linkhttps://t.co/uFMsfLLbSj pic.twitter.com/0CnpwQeJ5J — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 1, 2025 ISM Prices Paid pic.twitter.com/q2t24pHB4d — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) April 1, 2025 Bond investors are worried: The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March …
Summary: The University of Michigan’s final report shows five-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993. Consumer sentiment plunged 12% from February, reaching its weakest level since November 2022. Two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to increase over the next year. Major U.S. equity indices dropped sharply following the release, with …
The collapse of Snow White at the box office has become one of the most disheartening stories in recent Hollywood history. Disney’s once-golden brand now seems to be drowning under the weight of woke culture and mismanagement. The numbers are staggering: just $3.5 million in previews on Thursday, and projections for the opening weekend barely …
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January jumped by +.4%, exceeding the forecasted +.3%. This unexpected rise highlights ongoing inflation pressures, which could have significant effects on both consumers and businesses. The PPI gauges the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. When the PPI is higher …
All real GDP growth for the last few years has been bought by deficit spending. If we run a balanced budget we are 0 real growth. h/t hv876
