“At some point you reach a point of no return where re-opening of Strait is too late to avoid shifting inflation/interest rate expectations. That is now probably a matter of weeks away. This realization could provide the pretext for stocks to retest lows.” – Connor Broadley

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Global 2026 inflation expectations have been upgraded from 3.8% to 5.4% in the last 14 days.

Central banks are shifting from “easing” to “emergency hold” or “hiking” mode.

https://verdence.com/insight/global-growth-downgrades-conflict-inflation-2026/

Prediction markets now show only 50/50 odds of the Strait normalizing before July.

A prolonged closure ensures a permanent shift in the 2026-2027 interest rate path.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574447-only-50-50-odds-that-the-strait-of-hormuz-normalizes-by-july-according-to-prediction-markets

The Bank of England held at 3.75% but warned of “worst-case” hikes to 6.2% if the war drags.

The “rate cut dream” is dead; the market must now price in higher-for-longer (again).

https://apnews.com/article/britain-interest-rates-interest-rates-iran-cf3f5e779322f269a51974d54da261ea

S&P 500 futures are jittery despite Trump’s “partial reopen” plan; volatility is spiking.

If the “partial reopen” fails to move oil below $100, the retest of the March lows begins.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026050333/us-stock-futures-rise-oil-falls-as-trump-touts-new-plan-to-partially-reopen-strait-of-hormuz

Dividend yield lowest going back to 1800s and Shiller PE at 41. This market is screaming -30% drop in a week cuz the economy can't handle extended drawdowns bcuz of huge debt and deficits.
byu/DesmondMilesDant ineconomicCollapse

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