BANKS’ EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FED DECISION

by

MORGAN STANLEY
Now expects cuts in Dec, Jan, and April to reach 3.0–3.25%.
• Statement to signal risk-management cuts are done.
• Several dissents expected.
• No major change to dots.

JPMORGAN
Also expects a “hawkish cut.”
• Statement to hint fewer cuts ahead.
• Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027), possibly higher longer-run.
• Future: Final cut in January.

BANK OF AMERICA
Expects a 25 bp cut plus balance-sheet actions.
• Statement to raise bar for further cuts.
• About three dissents expected.
• Next cuts: June and July.

DEUTSCHE BANK
Says stronger growth + sticky inflation mean caution on more cuts.
• Statement to move more hawkish.
• Dots in line with 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2028).
• Next cut: September.

UBS
Sees a strong majority backing a 25 bp cut.
• Statement could shift toward balanced risks, though not baseline.
• Expects 2+ dissents, mainly from Musalem and Schmid.
• Inflation forecasts slightly lower; dots similar to September.
• Powell likely stresses data dependence and being closer to neutral.

COMMERZBANK
Sees a 25 bp cut, but with many dissents possible.
• Powell likely pairs the cut with hawkish messaging.
• Only one more cut before his term ends; more easing starting June under a new chair.

GOLDMAN SACHS
Supports a cut due to a softening labor market.
• Statement likely to stress higher bar for future cuts.
• Forecast revisions: higher GDP, slightly lower inflation.

CITI
Expects a hawkish cut.
• Dots mostly unchanged.
• Powell won’t rule out Jan or March cuts but will avoid dovish tone.

WELLS FARGO
Expects the Fed to keep moving toward a more neutral stance.
• Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027–28), 3.0% long run.
• Statement may see 3–4 dissents; softer guidance.
• Outlook: 25 bp cuts in Q1 and Q2.