Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In a recent post, I discussed Wall Street’s return estimates for 2025 for the S&P 500 index. To wit: “We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are optimistic for the coming year. The median estimate is …
January 14, 2025. The report shows that the prices for final demand goods increased by 0.6% in December, which was in line with expectations. The 9.7% jump in gasoline prices significantly contributed to this overall increase. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report for December 2024: Producer Price Index (PPI) …
$RIVN +24% for the day and 58% over the last 3 mo. because it reported "800 MORE VEHICLES than analyst expectations." Yes, 800. Rivian delivered nearly 14,200 EVs during the fourth quarter, bringing its yearly sales volume to roughly 51,580 electric trucks — within the company's… pic.twitter.com/fO54mA9prH — Inkling (@inside_finance) January 3, 2025
Steepest drop since September 2008. pic.twitter.com/8lMdk43vdb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 16, 2024 China’s retail sales rose by 3% in November from a year ago, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday, missing the forecast of 4.6% in a Reuters poll. That marked a sharp slowdown from 4.8% growth in the previous month. Retail sales in October …
by confoundedinterest17 To quote Freddie King, the US is going down. Longer-term inflation jumped to their highest since June 2008, according to the latest UMich Sentiment survey, while short-term inflation expectations dropped to four year lows… Housing sentiment (buying conditions for housing) remains depressed under Biden/Harris “Reign of (economic) error.” Here is a picture depicting the …
Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) (NYSE: PM) has reported an exceptionally strong performance for the third quarter of 2024, achieving record quarterly net revenues and earnings per share (EPS). The company’s net revenues increased by 8.4% to $9.9 billion, with an organic growth rate of 11.6%. This growth was driven by a favorable pricing variance …
“They’re not long enough”@eliant_capital @marketplunger1 — AP Research (@AlphaPicks) September 30, 2024 1) Stepping in front of a runaway train is not a good idea2) A world full of universally high expectations can result in great disappointment.3) This trade is crowded https://t.co/hP5GIY9J4a — Scarlett & Carter's BaPa (@KASDad) September 30, 2024 GOLD – History in …
(Bloomberg) — Gold traded steady near an all-time high as weak US data bolstered the case for deeper interest rate cuts. Bullion climbed to a record $2,670.57 an ounce earlier on Wednesday, before paring gains. A report on Tuesday showed US consumer confidence this month fell the most in three years. Swaps traders increased bets …
"Growth data has been more likely to fall short of expectations than at any time in nearly a decade."@NewEdgeWealth pic.twitter.com/LuPu2i9kak — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 14, 2024 Especially temporary help services. They are the first to go and first to come back pic.twitter.com/eEyjdig4xR — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) September 14, 2024 Why is Buffett dumping all …
OPEC has recently reduced global growth expectations. h/t Infamous_Sympathy_91
ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing, according to data from Similarweb, compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2,000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts? I do think LLMs have… pic.twitter.com/m7HsJVme8Z — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) September 6, 2024 Bitcoin vs Nasdaq Update: My ultimate …
U.S. Construction Spending MOM SAAR pic.twitter.com/4yP9esLhtu — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 4, 2024 Construction spending decreasing does NOT bode well for jobs in that sector. Construction is not a small piece of the economy either, and spending in other sectors will be negatively affected by increased unemployment in this sector. Remember, the unemployed don’t …
Look at these two charts and explain to me how it is possible that "inflation expectations" (whatever the f*** those are) are under control? Americans earn fewer dollars than they have in 80 years, and their desire to hold those dollars is near an 80 year low. Jettison the… pic.twitter.com/v0DaECBLzY — Dr_Gingerballs (@Dr_Gingerballs) September 3, …
On this long-term chart the pandemic is barely visible as a minor blip in a 15 year blow-off top to a long-term secular bull market. Marked by unprecedented political acrimony, constant monetary intervention, and a 6% budget deficit to obtain 2% "growth". In a more honest time… pic.twitter.com/svL7Rgo7Wy — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 22, 2024 Expectations …
by TonyLiberty Fed chief Powell to set table for September rate cut at Jackson Hole, but jobs data will set the size Oh yay. Only 2.9% higher than the 4.5% increase last year and the 8.8% higher increase the year before and the 3% before. So we are only 21% higher than 4 years ago. …
Texas Instruments faces a grim reality as first-quarter results reveal a stark 16% revenue drop, extending a troubling trend over six consecutive quarters. Despite high hopes pinned on the AI boom and economic growth, the company grapples with persistent declines, prompting skepticism and scrutiny from analysts. Amidst growing concerns, the narrative shifts to confront uncomfortable …
Rumble Inc. (NASDAQ:RUM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript March 27, 2024 Rumble Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $-0.14, expectations were $-0.22. RUM isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here). Operator: Greetings. Welcome to Rumble Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings …
Tesla published its first-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Tuesday showing deliveries of 386,810, a steep drop from the same quarter last year. According to a mean of 11 estimates compiled by FactSet, analysts were expecting deliveries of around 457,000 for the first three months of the year. This was Tesla’s first year-over-year decline in deliveries …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Charlotte Harrison on Unsplash Today’s news is so flooded with stories that show the trends I’ve teen warning about that I can’t even begin to cover them all in the time I have to read through the news, organize it and then write an editorial. So, I’m going to go through them in …
Regardless what politicians and central bankers say, they need inflation, otherwise the system would collapse under weight of debt and interests pic.twitter.com/EcCacNpwXB — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) February 16, 2024 PPI Inflation was Above Expectations pic.twitter.com/AyjoE7Zc63 — Disruptor 📼 (@DisruptorStocks) February 16, 2024 Spring is Coming Mortgage Rates still 7.14% pic.twitter.com/BQL6M5IUdR — Disruptor 📼 (@DisruptorStocks) …
As the earnings season unfolds, the SPX’s first-quarter and year-ahead earnings projections are on a downward spiral. Earnings surprises are meager at +6.1%, marking 2023’s weakest performance. With a grim earnings growth of about -2%, the initial expectations of +2% have crumbled. Over 20% of the S&P 500 has reported lackluster results, raising concerns about …
BREAKING: December CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core CPI inflation fell to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.8%. This is the 33rd consecutive month with inflation above 3% and first jump since September. Can the Fed really pivot right now? — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 11, 2024 Breaking down the …
New vehicle inventory is now at the *highest* level since early spring of 2021. Expect incentives to keep rising for most brands. — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) December 23, 2023 Updated market day supply for NEW vehicles, major markets.Compared to October numbers (just over 2months):Chevrolet, Nissan, Subaru, Kia almost 50% increase in MDS, and Dodge …
👀 Alex Jones on the Power of Media & Predictive Programming “They basically said through culture, through newspapers, magazines and books, and through radio and TV, we're gonna program people to expect the future so they accept the future we're going to give them. And that's… pic.twitter.com/wwNY4AFwOS — Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) December 11, 2023 "Do …
As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/financial-fragility1 Wut Mean?: Overall Decline in Consumer Credit Demand (2023): General weakening in most credit application rates. Credit card limit increase applications rose. Rejection Rates Trends: Overall rise in rejection rates for credit applications. Decline in rejection rates for credit card limit extensions and new mortgage applications. Higher creditworthiness among those applying for new …
Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, according to ADP, a sign that the surprisingly resilient U.S. economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates. The firm reported Wednesday that private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, well below the revised total of 371,000 jobs added …
⚠️10YR yield high of day 4.274% New 20 year high pic.twitter.com/H0k7d5a0QG — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 16, 2023 The $tip etf is at the October lows. $qqq seems terribly mispriced, and that gap needs to close. pic.twitter.com/egSgaaxTsS — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) August 16, 2023 Wen financial Armageddon pic.twitter.com/iSYwaXCF0U — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 16, …
