Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via run_midnight I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030? Yesterday, I ended up posting a copy of this with incorrect data. I had to repost to correct the problem, so I apologize. This post will examine RDDT’s revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, …
🚨 CRYPTO LIQUIDITY JUST HIT A LEVEL LAST SEEN DURING THE FTX COLLAPSE USDT supply has fallen over -$3B in 60 days — matching conditions near Bitcoin’s 2022 BOTTOM. When stablecoins supply shrink, it means investors are pulling capital out. But historically, these liquidity… pic.twitter.com/TD6f3fQR9G — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) February 23, 2026 Commercials are extremely …
Weimar German Marks vs Gold – 100 years ago on the left United States Dollar vs Gold – Today on the right. Not a good sign. pic.twitter.com/jqOCu5354K — GRITCULT (@GRITCULT) January 26, 2026
When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026. Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad. Historically, the pattern is …
The housing shortage pic.twitter.com/U00dO89D4p — MegaDitto (@Choosey_Beggar) December 7, 2025
For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October. ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started. Is the AI super bubble killing jobs? It’s …
23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last time this many states entered recession at once was 2008. Back then, unemployment hit 10% and foreclosures doubled within 18 months. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance 23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last …
This story just won’t go away. Private credit=subprime MBS 💀 https://t.co/LlOq0NvN1u — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 22, 2025 Andrew Bailey has said the crisis in the $3tn shadow banking industry has echoes of 2008, in comments that will fuel concerns about a looming crash. The Governor of the Bank of England said private credit lenders …
I have said multiple times, that we would see EUPHORIA at the peak of the Bubble Top. This is an example of that – and it is going to get worse – as BTC soars into the last massive top. But …. this kind of talk – is EXACTLY what you hear into massive tops. …
March 2008: Bear Stearns collapses under toxic mortgage exposure. The Fed guarantees $30 billion in assets. JPMorgan acquires it for $10 a share. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-stearns.asp August 2025: Trump demands Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign over alleged China ties and then floats a federal stake to support the delayed $28 billion Ohio chip plant. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/8/14/us-government-in-talks-to-take-stake-in-intel-report Intel stock …
Bitcoin-backed loans are surging. Not as a hedge. As a new form of leverage. Same greed. New wrapper. “Twenty One Capital, backed by Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether, may begin issuing US dollar loans using Bitcoin as collateral… the company recently acquired about 5,800 BTC from Tether, pushing its total holdings to an estimated $5.13 billion.” …
Understanding cycles lets you rotate before the herd… Why is Macro important? Because you will beat the market by 700% If you understand Business Cycles – and allocate your Funds so that you are invested in Risk Assets when Business Cycles are bottoming, strengthening or strong – and in TLT when Business Cycles roll over …
https://twitter.com/SoccerMomTrades/status/1939835719872106645
"We are going to discover just like we did from the 2005-2008 time period, that this perception that there is an incredible shortage of housing is simply wrong." pic.twitter.com/BGlNAraweK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 we know what's going on pic.twitter.com/3qd615gfqm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 20, 2025 There are roughly 14.9 million vacant …
Your cause shouldn’t come at the cost of someone else’s peace. One protest after another, and still.. no real message gets across. In LA, someone got hit with a rubber bullet. Which indeed is tragic, But when protests turn into mayhem, the original point is lost. And everyday… — Faizaan Unscripted (@FaizUnscripted) June 9, 2025 …
‘Japan’s Top Life Insurer Says Unrealized Bond Losses Tripled.’ This Bloomberg headline sounds familiar, right? Back in March 2023, several US regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and later First Republic Bank, collapsed when ‘unrealized losses’ became realized losses as people got their money out. Did the system collapse? NO! Why? Because the Federal Reserve …
Moody's assessment is right. No other major developed economy is under pressure to grow its GDP by nearly 5% simply to service its debt. None. This is a central pillar of the bearish case for the US dollar. FX is a relative game and the urgency for rate cuts in the US is… pic.twitter.com/53XMF3p6f8 — …
BTC/M2 is exhibiting a pattern similar to 2021, indicating the possibility of a rally through August, followed by a significant top. pic.twitter.com/t23WXeJmTv — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 2, 2025 S&P 500 may not have bottomed warns Goldman Sachs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/O2ETYoGk5Z — Barchart (@Barchart) May 2, 2025
S&P 500 could plunge 33% to 3,700 warns Wolfe Research 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/zBbOK715rN — Barchart (@Barchart) April 25, 2025 The S&P 500 could tumble as low as 3700 in a mild recession, according to Wolfe Research: “If uncertainty caused by tariff policy were to push the U.S. economy into recession in 2025, we’d expect $SPX EPS …
We've seen this movie before… UBS 2025- "…Ernst & Young, re-elected as UBS's auditor last year, said in its assessment on Monday that because of the effects of this weakness, it had concluded that UBS had "not maintained effective internal control over financial reporting"… pic.twitter.com/TM0R1VAtzX — kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) March 18, 2025 UBS’s auditor warns …
UK. Pound collapses. Bond yields soar. No one resigns. Britain's Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis.https://t.co/VUYnXhYiNB pic.twitter.com/eVCX6gaoXq — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 9, 2025 Britain’s Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis Soaring yields prompt some comparisons with Truss debacle But the economy’s woes may be more similar to IMF bailout era …
This is a document snip from the Chinese and Indian CBDC financial team where they discuss Tether as if it has already imploded and taken down the market. It might be time to think critically and diversify out of USDT. https://t.co/H0JccvtHtY pic.twitter.com/LSEr3BknY5 — Mr. Man (@MrManXRP) December 27, 2024 $USDT will crash on December 30. …
There are a lot of differences between @ElonMusk and @realDonaldTrump, but one of the things they have in common seems to be that if they are threatened, they turn it up to 11. It would seem folks would realize that. — .𝕩𝕏 SJV 𝕏𝕩. (@sjvsworldtour) December 24, 2024
2/ Oct 2007: Gold made a new ATH aftr 1.5 years Soon after, the unemployment rate began rising rapidly And economic growth slowed down This ended in the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/Wybfid9wfx — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2024 4/ Today, Gold has once again made a new ATH And Silver has also been moving …
Investors are now selling at a loss in Florida’s Housing Market, with the Zillow Value estimates on some listings collapsing as much as 30%. Indeed, the seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 481,000, marking the highest level since January 2008. This surge in inventory is a result of rising …
Oh my … https://t.co/E0OsOaNh9c pic.twitter.com/7gmY4SMx5L — The Great Martis (@great_martis) June 18, 2024 (Bloomberg) — The year was 1999. Steve Jobs had recently returned to lead Apple. Intel was the dominant force in semiconductors. And a little-known chipmaker named Nvidia made its debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It took less than three years for …
Nvidia’s recent financial performance, exceeding expectations and raising guidance, has raised eyebrows due to its resemblance to revenue inflation tactics seen during the dot-com bubble. Company A buys GPUs from Nvidia. Nvidia buys cloud computing credits from Company A. Both companies report these transactions as revenue. Commitments to cloud computing services have surged, doubling to …
⚠️Crash Alert ⚠️ 2024 vs 2008 Dow jones . Topping formations have certain characteristics If we correlate 2024 with 2008 we need to tolerate patience .⚠️ * Pause /consolidation *Upthrust .* Ascending channel .*Sharp correction .* New Highs on lower volume .*Death… pic.twitter.com/djwDKhnGD7 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 12, 2024 2024 mirrors the ominous …
🚨 CRASH ALERT 🚨 1987 VS 2024 Update . 2nd lower peak complete . Is history about to repeat ? 🆘 pic.twitter.com/P0qp28Wyk8 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 6, 2024 $SPX bull trap bear flag No changes just a bunch of psychopaths being completely deluded idiots on the back of @Bank_of_Japan_e insanity There will be …
As we navigate the complexities of global trade, an unsettling parallel to the 1970s emerges—a de facto shipping blockade looms on the horizon. The epicenter of this maritime upheaval is the Red Sea, where the crisis is intensifying. The shortage of containers is already felt acutely, and the ripple effects threaten to extend beyond dry …