Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A sense of foreboding emerges as 91% of fund managers unite in the belief that interest rates are destined to fall. This unnervingly high consensus has historically preceded major market downturns, reminiscent of the Dotcom bear market in 2000-2001, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the Covid panic in 2020. Adding to the apprehension, …
via amgreatness: Let’s acknowledge once again that, as the English Prime Minister Harold Wilson once observed, a week is a long time in politics. The world is in a yeasty state at the moment. Who knows what will happen with the millions of illegal, mostly hostile, migrants that Biden has let into the country? Who …
Indeed, that's a key point. Additionally, the coming commodity super cycle is going to be driven by the supply crunch of essential commodities such as copper and silver. Contributing to their growing scarcity… pic.twitter.com/Kc06kclh6G — Phoenix Capital (@PhoenixCapitalH) December 23, 2023 Equities are expensive. Commodities are generationally cheap Do with this as you wish. pic.twitter.com/SpHmqL6eKk …
BY CHARLES HUGH SMITH Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don’t depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is. They will unravel the excesses regardless of what we think, hope or deny. The Federal Reserve has so completely normalized speculative excess that these extremes are no longer even recognized as extremes. Rather, …
In a significant market development, the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Curve has remained inverted for a historic 278 consecutive trading days, marking the longest inversion in financial history. The inversion has deepened recently, reaching its lowest point since August, adding to economic uncertainty. Notably, Broadcom has emerged as a front-runner in the semiconductor industry, …
The narrative surrounding Cardinal Angelo Becciu’s scandal paints a vivid picture of corruption and betrayal within the Vatican’s sacred walls. The intense courtroom proceedings, under Giuseppe Pignatone’s watchful eye, unravel a complex web of financial crimes involving key figures. The ill-fated London building purchase becomes a symbol of financial recklessness, implicating Becciu in speculative dealings. …
The stock market is currently experiencing its most overbought conditions since the early days of the pandemic, with traders displaying a fervent appetite for bullish options contracts. This surge in bullish sentiment is reminiscent of the situation leading up to the 2008-09 recession, raising concerns among seasoned analysts. A striking comparison can be drawn between …
Allowing illegal aliens to join the military is a very late stage Roman Empire strategy. Here is a little bit of Roman Empire history… In the Later Roman Empire(4th and 5th century AD) the Empire was witness to a mass migration of barbarians into the Empire. These tribes were… https://t.co/fhcO4eRb3A — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) …
With disconcerting parallels to the financial crisis of 2008, warning signals are intensifying. A stark divergence between large and mid caps, soaring borrowing costs for S&P 500 companies, a prolonged crude oil decline, and soaring hedge fund exposure all contribute to an uneasy market outlook. The historical correlation of the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield …
Glenn Greenwald supported Vivek’s comparison of Nikki Haley to Dick Cheney, citing their similarities as fervent warmongers who benefit from the wars they advocate. Vivek was absolutely right to compare Nikki Haley to Dick Cheney. They are identical: not only fanatical warmongers but ones who profiteer off the wars they cheerlead. Haley's candidacy is an …
As the Nasdaq Composite surges, outperforming the Russell 2000 by the largest margin since 1999, a sense of déjà vu from the dot-com bubble emerges. US equities near 70-year highs against global stocks, mirroring the exuberance of the past. While the possibility of another -85% drawdown is deemed unlikely, the striking similarities to the ‘back …
Amid ongoing debates, the unfolding of the current economic cycle appears to align more with the 1970s than the World War II era, based on available data. Despite the ongoing debates, the current economic cycle has unfolded much more like the 1970s period than the World War II era up to this point. To put …