Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Migration masks demographic collapse across Europe. Meanwhile, net migration into the EU last year was 2.3m. Without considering any other effects, this is not a long-term solution because migrants age and many are coming from countries where birth rates have also gone low. — David Quinn (@DavQuinn) August 19, 2025
Tariffs are supposed to pay down debt and maybe fund a public dividend. President Trump claims, “We’re taking in so much money that we may very well make a dividend to the people of America.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-tariffs-going-enough-080300997.html Reality check: the federal deficit for FY2025 is $1.8 trillion. Tariff revenue? $80 billion. https://economicsinsider.com/us-federal-budget-2025/ That covers 4.4 percent …
Hotter inflation proves you can’t print your way out of rising prices. Inflation is diverging across regions of the US: Pacific Coast states such as California, Oregon, and Washington saw inflation rates above +3.1% in July, according to BLS data. Northeast states like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York also experienced… pic.twitter.com/O55X8qibCY — …
US deficit hit $291B in July. That’s a $3.5 trillion yearly pace without a war or a recession. Just “normal” Washington spending. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-08/61304-MBR.pdf Tariffs brought in $25B. Trump called it “incredible revenue.” The same month, the government spent $630B. That’s pocket change against a tidal wave. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariffs-are-generating-meaningful-new-revenue Social Security payouts jumped $108B. Medicare and Medicaid …
In this conversation, Joe and James discuss the implications of the Genius Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins and their potential impact on the banking system and national debt. James argues that while crypto can disrupt the inefficient banking system, the Genius Act may not solve all financial problems. They explore the future of stablecoins, …
France’s government is running out of options. On July 15, Prime Minister François Bayrou proposed eliminating two national public holidays to help close a €43.8 billion budget gap in the 2026 fiscal plan. The move is part of a broader austerity package aimed at reducing the deficit from 5.4% of GDP to 4.6% next year. …
Markets flash crisis signs… Current situation: 1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken 2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973 3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back 4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening 5.… …
The $37 trillion debt is a symptom of D.C.’s addiction to reckless spending. Since 2019, federal outlays surged 51.7% to $6.7 trillion annually, while interest payments alone hit $1.71 trillion—enough to fund NASA for 68 years. The Cost Estimates Improvement Act (H.R. 991) tries… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) July 1, 2025 "To preserve our independence, …
President Trump’s flagship legislation is now hanging by a thread. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cleared the Senate on July 1 after a 26-hour vote marathon, but it did so with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. That alone signals trouble. The bill now returns to the House, where the revised version is triggering …
Elon Musk is backing Rep. Thomas Massie. Not for headlines. For principle. Massie voted no on the $2.4 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill.” That triggered a Trump-endorsed primary challenge. Musk stepped in and pledged support. This isn’t about personalities. It’s about the math. The Congressional Budget Office ran the numbers. The bill delivers $3.7 trillion in …
Mike Johnson didn’t offer a handshake. He gave a guarantee. In private, he told his own party he would carve $1.5 trillion in spending cuts into Trump’s domestic agenda package. That was the price. The commitment was locked. April 2025. Not ceremonial. Binding. Now look at the paper. The reconciliation bill passed. The cuts didn’t. …
Speaker Mike Johnson is also privately telling GOP fiscal hawks that he’s pushing Senate Majority Leader John Thune to add back in hundreds of billions of dollars in spending cuts the Senate dropped, according to two people with direct knowledge of the conversations. But fiscal hawks have been skeptical the Senate will comply. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/29/congress/house-gop-leaders-watch-senate-anxiously-as-they-work-to-secure-votes-00432288 Republican …
BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May, the third-largest on record. This comes as total government outlays rose 3% from YoY, to $687 billion, per ZeroHedge. And, while tariff revenue surged 270% YoY, to a record $23 billion, it barely made a dent in the deficit. In the first 8 …
JD Vance confused the trade deficit with the budget deficit on national TV. You paid six figures for a Yale Law degree to flunk Econ 101 in front of millions? Brother, refund season is here and your tuition is Exhibit A. pic.twitter.com/sAMXNimrRQ — Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) June 10, 2025
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) is set to draft a constitutional amendment that will oust every member of Congress when the federal deficit exceeds 3% of GDP. A plan backed by Elon Musk. In a 2011 interview, billionaire Warren Buffett first proposed the now-famous plan. “I could end… pic.twitter.com/oKPl31TLlV — RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) June 5, 2025
USA budget deficit: 2000: $236 billion 2001: $128 billion 2002: $158 billion 2003: $378 billion 2004: $413 billion 2005: $318 billion 2006: $248 billion 2007: $161 billion 2008: $459 billion 2009: $1.41 trillion 2010: $1.29 trillion 2011: $1.30 trillion 2012: $1.07 trillion 2013: $680 billion 2014: $485 billion 2015: $442 billion 2016: $585 billion 2017: …
"I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful. But I don't know if it could be both." Tech billionaire Elon Musk tells CBS Sunday Morning's @Pogue he was "disappointed" to see the Trump-backed "big beautiful" spending bill, which passed in the House last week. Musk said… pic.twitter.com/LUcuTaNYrs — CBS Sunday Morning …
🚨 JUST IN: Senator Rand Paul says he does not support the Big Beautiful Bill because of the growing deficit and debt. "They're going to explode the debt… that's just not conservative. I've told them if they strip out the debt ceiling, I'll consider, even with the… pic.twitter.com/nYkbKEUcBs — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 25, 2025 …
Gold holders this weekend. pic.twitter.com/YKoPZQQhST — Parallel Mike (@parallel_mike) May 22, 2025 This $4.1 billion in buys was on Monday and they have been REKT ever since. lol https://t.co/XecPYJmCyL — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 22, 2025 Worse.Worsened.Worsening. https://t.co/4nEsFQVLdG pic.twitter.com/3HK1ZogNRR — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 22, 2025 FUCK YOUR DOWNGRADES – WE’RE GONNA DOUBLE DEFICIT …
The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go …
📈 Diverging Trade Paths: U.S. Deficit Hits $1.4 Trillion as China’s Surplus Climbs to $1.1 Trillion (LTM Q1 2025) byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics In the twelve months ending March 2025, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $1.4 trillion, a 30.3% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus rose 30.9% to $1.08 trillion. Since the onset …
President Donald Trump said Monday he “just called” Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to inform them about the cost savings they could recoup for their party-line megabill — thanks to the president’s sprawling tariff regime and his “most favored nation” drug pricing executive order. “You’re gonna have to, No. 1, score …
So far the new admin has done little to reign in spending despite all the discussion about DOGE in the first few months. Not all that surprising given congress extended '25 spending at current law. pic.twitter.com/QRX5ejWpES — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 12, 2025 They promised discipline, then threw it out the window. While headlines screamed …
Issuing debt that the Fed then buys with created out of thin air funny money is so Zimbabwe 2.0. The fed is already sitting on over $1.5 trillion in bonds. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y The train is out of control… The first 7 months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.1 Trillion. That’s $196 Billion more than …
Tariff rush blows out U.S. trade deficit to historic high! byu/MonetaryCommentary inEconomyCharts The U.S. trade deficit ballooned to a record $140.5 billion in March 2025, as everyone rushed to import goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs, which kicked in early April. This preemptive buying spree sent imports surging some 23% year-to-date, with record inflows from countries …
President Trump’s tariffs became very real for importers last month as the government collected more than $17.4 billion in “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” during April. That was nearly double March’s haul of $9.6 billion, dwarfing the smaller spikes in revenue seen during Trump’s first term. All told, the duties have deposited more than $70 …
The IMF projects the overall U.S. federal deficit will dip to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024 The multinational fund cited increased tariff revenues for the decline The IMF highlighted uncertainty surrounding the rollout of higher tariffs and potential revenue increases The International Monetary Fund forecasts U.S. tariffs will …
Speaker Mike Johnson told Republican holdouts on the party’s crucial budget plan in a private meeting Wednesday night that they could oust him from the speakership if he doesn’t follow through with his fiscal promises, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Johnson pledged to …
BREAKING: President Trump says, "We have to solve our trade deficit … Unless we solve that problem, I'm not going to make a deal." https://t.co/STlqrVo2NQ pic.twitter.com/TXcH7qIuJf — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 7, 2025 BREAKING: Trump says he is not interested in negotiating with Europe over the tariffs and that he will not be lifting …
by Mike Shedlock Union contracts are at the heart of the problem. Chicago coming up. Full Blown Crisis Please note L.A. city budget shortfall grows to nearly $1 billion, with layoffs ‘nearly inevitable’ L.A.’s financial problems exploded into a full-blown crisis on Wednesday, with the city’s top budget official announcing that next year’s shortfall is now …