President Trump’s flagship legislation is now hanging by a thread. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cleared the Senate on July 1 after a 26-hour vote marathon, but it did so with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. That alone signals trouble. The bill now returns to the House, where the revised version is triggering a full-blown rebellion inside the Republican conference. The Freedom Caucus is threatening to tank the procedural vote. Moderates are balking at Medicaid cuts. Fiscal hawks are calling the deficit projections unacceptable. Speaker Mike Johnson is scrambling to hold the line.
The Senate version adds $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That’s up from $2.4 trillion in the House version passed in May. The new draft includes permanent business tax cuts, a $40,000 cap on SALT deductions, and a $200 billion border security package. It also raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Medicaid cuts are deeper. Green energy subsidies are rolled back. The child tax credit was trimmed from $2,500 to $2,200 per child. The Senate also added a $25,000 deduction for tipped income and a $6,000 exemption for seniors over 65.
House conservatives are not buying it. Rep. Andy Harris said the bill “needs to be ironed out” before it moves forward. Rep. Ralph Norman called the Senate version “unconscionable.” Rep. Chip Roy said the deficit math “got worse.” The procedural vote is scheduled for July 2. Republicans can only afford three defections. At least five have already signaled opposition. If the rule fails, the bill stalls. If the House amends it, the Senate must vote again. That would blow past Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Marjorie Taylor Greene called the timeline “a sh*t show.” She supports the bill but says the rush is unrealistic. Speaker Johnson insists the House will vote “as-is.” But weather delays and canceled flights are keeping lawmakers from returning to Washington. Over 1,200 flights were grounded on July 1. That’s not helping the whip count.
Trump is pressing hard. He posted on Truth Social urging Republicans to “ignore the grandstanders” and “get it done.” He wants the bill signed before Independence Day. The White House says the legislation will boost GDP by 2.4%. The CBO projects 0.4%. That gap is not small. It’s structural.
The House passed the original version by one vote. The Senate version is heavier, costlier, and more controversial. The GOP is split. The clock is ticking. The rebellion is real.
Sources
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5380166-house-conservatives-threaten-senate-bill/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-big-beautiful-bill-rules-committee/