Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The US goods trade deficit widened by -$22.8 billion, or -27%, in May, to -$105.8 billion, the largest since March 2025. This marks the largest monthly increase since November 2025. US goods exports fell -$11.8 billion, or -5%, to $207.7 billion, the lowest since February, driven by a sharp decline in industrial supplies, particularly energy …
Nic@puckrin Kevin Warsh just picked his two Fed advisers. Here’s why it matters: Daniel Covitz: 30 years at the Fed, specialist in financial stability & credit markets. Eric Engstrom: called the soft landing dead in mid-2025. His model flagged “mild stagflation” before anyone else was saying it. Together they argued yields are rising because of …
🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump STUNS the "experts" by announcing the largest trade deficit cut in US history THE TARIFFS WORK 🇺🇸 "I CUT IT BY 67%!" "That's why you have all these factories being built." "We have the biggest trade deficit cut in the history of our country. 67%!" pic.twitter.com/6ic03eapjU — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) …
Import prices in US rose 1.9% month over month. This was higher than expected (forecast around 1.0%). Export prices rose 1.3% month over month. This was also higher than expected (forecast around 0.9%). Import prices up big because of fuel and other goods costs. Year over year, import prices rose 6.7% — biggest jump in …
U.S. government debt is projected to grow by 9.9% according to consumer data. Federal deficits are now the primary driver of inflationary pressure in the economy. Treasury yields are elevated because the bond market demands a premium. Fiscal spending is effectively acting as a secondary stimulus to an overheating economy. Policymakers have zero room to …
Mamdani claims $0 deficit… Raids NYPD and Teacher pensions to balance books… Hochul sends $4B lifeline… The $12B NYC shell game… Doesn’t seem like it. pic.twitter.com/J9OoP5xlPX — Fat Santa (@BknDrum) May 13, 2026 Lies pic.twitter.com/ttgiDi13Xc — Mo ⦿ (@108Mj) May 13, 2026 Not quite. Mamdani proposed a balanced budget today, but the 12B gap was …
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have been deemed illegal by the U.S. supreme court, but that doesn’t mean he’s changing his view on the policy tool — far from it. “The TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history,” Trump declared in a recent post on Truth Social (1). “THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!” …
🚨 JUST IN: In a huge win, the White House just confirmed the US trade deficit has PLUMMETED -30% with China in the past year "Our trade deficit with the rest of the world, since last April, has gone down by -17%!" 🇺🇸 The experts lose again. "The president's trade policy is… pic.twitter.com/XmeRlYg7H3 — Eric …
Moody’s Ratings has projected a negative outlook for New York City’s finances, chalking it up to the city’s large and persistent projected budget gaps — and citing Mayor Mamdani’s plan to draw down from reserves in order to balance the budget this year. The negative outlook won’t have any immediate impact on the city’s borrowing …
Tariff refunds are going to take thousands of lawsuits to sort out. And potentially add hundreds of billions to the deficit. Bang up job, Supremes 🤪 https://t.co/IF7w7orfOr — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) February 21, 2026 Bessent: I got a feeling the American people won't see the $175 billion in tariff revenue we collected pic.twitter.com/rj0Bmm0Exg …
Also ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/9J5BkHfxrO — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) February 20, 2026
US TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS, CAPPING ONE OF BIGGEST SINCE 1960 The U.S. trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December, pushing the full-year gap to $901.5 billion — among the largest since 1960, Commerce Department data showed. Imports rose 3.6% in December, while exports fell 1.7%. Economists had expected a $55.5 billion deficit. The goods …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Let’s compare Trump’s claim to actual trade numbers. US Balance of Trade Goods Only Through November 2025 Key Trade Deficit Points Last year, the goods trade deficit $1.205 trillion. Through November, the trade deficit is $1.134 trillion. There will be no significant change in the trade deficit in 2025 …
US TREASURY LAYS OUT $125B REFUNDING PLAN The US Treasury will sell $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week as part of a $125 billion refunding through April 2026, raising $34.8 billion in new cash. Auction sizes for… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 4, …
The U.S. deficit with its global trading partners nearly doubled in November as the shortfall with the European Union swelled and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Following a month where the trade deficit hit its lowest level since early 2009, it shot …
BREAKING: MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI SAYS NEW YORK CITY IS FACING A “FISCAL CRISIS ON THE SCALE OF THE GREAT RECESSION” pic.twitter.com/fbpDCgyhnr — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) January 28, 2026 Mamdani says New York City must drastically hike taxes on rich to fill $12 billion deficit Here comes the socialism #MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) January 28, 2026
The U.S. trade deficit retreated in October to its narrowest since June 2009 pic.twitter.com/fPWdEM8eGQ — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 8, 2026 The recession is coming? Very well explained. This has been in the works since 2022. It's just continuing the business cycle which was short-circuited by COVID stimulus. The cycle is back on track. It's …
Governor Gavin Newsom makes a shocking announcement. The reason why California went from a surplus to a massive deficit is because of climate change Reporter “Can we explain to Californians how we moved from $100 billion surplus to such a significant deficit in just a matter of… pic.twitter.com/YBk0rbomRh — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) December 25, …
by Michael We possess technology that would have been unimaginable to people living 100 years ago, we have access to more entertainment than any other generation in human history, and we have been enjoying an artificially-inflated standard of living that has been fueled by an unprecedented debt binge for decades. So why are so many …
US trade deficit just hit $52.8B – lowest since June 2020 Down 35% from last year Experts said tariffs would destroy economy Trump, Bessent and Lutnick were right all along Lower imports mean weaker demand which means recession is coming https://t.co/qWoTBTmzG2 pic.twitter.com/mWIxuaGW4r — Leshka.eth ⛩ (@leshka_eth) December 14, 2025 NEC Director Kevin Hassett: "It's looking …
BREAKING: September’s trade deficit stuns experts by coming in far lower than expected. EXPECTATION: -$59 BILLION REALITY: -$52 BILLION "This would be the lightest going back to, wow we're really going back. All the way back to June of 2020.” pic.twitter.com/aEmMj0LXqm — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 11, 2025 The US trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in …
TRUMP FED CHAIR ANNOUNCEMENT LIKELY THIS WEEK Sources, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, say Trump has made his Fed Chair pick, with a strong chance of a reveal before Christmas. Trump confirmed on Air Force One that the announcement is coming soon, possibly Dec. 2–3.… pic.twitter.com/E7T1WnottL — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 1, 2025 Treasury just …
This was the biggest October budget deficit on record, surpassing even the 2020 covid firehose https://t.co/VnYskEuXlF pic.twitter.com/8oFgNjtXU2 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 26, 2025 Good evening. Interest expense on US debt is now on an annual run rate of over $1.2 trillion. Have a great night. https://t.co/ehjkIuYXoS — James Lavish (@jameslavish) November 26, 2025 (Reuters) -The …
The numbers are not bad. They are grotesque. The national debt has exploded past $38 trillion, and nobody in Washington is even pretending to fix it. In just eight months, we’ve added $2 trillion more. That pace makes the 2008 bailout look like a bake sale. Meanwhile, the media obsesses over tariffs or shutdown drama …
by Mike Maharrey Despite all the talk about DOGE and cost-cutting earlier this year, the federal government spent more in fiscal 2025 than it did the previous year and set a new spending record. However, thanks to an influx of tariff revenue, the fiscal 2025 budget deficit was slightly smaller – if you can call a $1.78 …
Good Morning from Germany, which is increasingly losing out in trade w/China. Over the past 12mths, exports have dropped to €82bn, while imports have climbed to €165bn. The resulting trade deficit of €83bn is the largest since March 2023 and close to the record of €87bn. This… pic.twitter.com/auSjmfoDC7 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 20, 2025 …
As a confirmed gold bug for four decades i think gold is finally catching up with the ridiculous U.S. budget deficit. — Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) October 8, 2025 Gold crossed $4,000 today. This kind of rapid spike has only happened a few times in history — and it’s never ended well. The pattern goes back …
by Mike Maharrey Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit. So much for import duties paying for the government. That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem. The Trump …
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 22.1% to $103.6 billion in July from $84.9 billion, according to the Commerce Department’s advance estimate released Friday. The deficit was much wider than expected. Economists expected the deficit to widen to $87.7 billion, according to the Econoday research firm. “The wide fluctuations in trade flows associated with …
