Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This story just won’t go away. Private credit=subprime MBS 💀 https://t.co/LlOq0NvN1u — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 22, 2025 Andrew Bailey has said the crisis in the $3tn shadow banking industry has echoes of 2008, in comments that will fuel concerns about a looming crash. The Governor of the Bank of England said private credit lenders …
Thank goodness we have vigilant, hyper-competent stewards of our financial system such as Sens. Maxine Waters and Elizabeth Warren to ensure no systemic risks are allowed to threaten the solvency of our banks. What’s going on in the Corporate Junk Bond Levered Funds? 👀 @DowdEdward pic.twitter.com/9XLSpJ5kf4 — Will O'Hara, CMT (@WillOHara131) October 20, 2025 “Bank …
France is facing a full-blown credit crisis. S&P Global Ratings just downgraded the country’s credit rating from AA- to A+, marking the third downgrade in barely a month. The move reflects both political chaos and growing debt problems in Europe’s second-largest economy. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu barely survived two no-confidence votes and was forced to …
$1.33 trillion in credit card debt. That is not strength. That is panic. The average family owes $10,668. You can feel it in the lines at the grocery store, in the gas pump, in the monthly bills that never stop. Yellen says it shows “a strong consumer.” Families call it desperation. First Brands just collapsed. …
A true horror story that is coming to a town near you very soon. Do your really think this was planned only for China? Wishful thinking. Palatir is bringing it to you with enhanced features. Video description: Deleted, not broke. In China, thousands of young people are homeless—not for lack of money, but because the …
Household savings collapsed from a 32% pandemic peak to near 3%, leaving consumption far more exposed to wages and credit. byu/MonetaryCommentary inEconomyCharts The U.S. personal saving rate hovered around 7% during the 2010-2020 period, as households maintained a steady buffer of disposable income. But the sudden shock of Covid‑19 and accompanying shutdowns sent the rate …
Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the lowest level since 2009. Only 204,939 hires so far in 2025.That’s a 58% collapse YoY.Worse …
FOX News reported that Gen Z borrowers’ credit scores have fallen to an average of 676. That number doesn’t just measure financial responsibility. It measures exhaustion. It shows a generation pushed to the edge and forced to make impossible choices. People are not living carelessly. They are paying rent, buying food, filling gas tanks, covering …
Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren’t really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks. The stock market looks stronger than ever — …
Look at HYG and JNK closed at 2 week lows. Credit leads equities… something lurking there 👀 — Will O'Hara, CMT (@WillOHara131) October 8, 2025 Breadth wasn’t good XLF XLC and XLY have broken up trends from April. Also HYG is quietly going lower — Will O'Hara, CMT (@WillOHara131) October 8, 2025 "Credit scores are …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Consumer credit is weak in nominal terms and negative in real terms. Nominal Consumer Credit, Data from the Fed, Chart by Mish Nominal consumer credit has started to flatline. In real terms, credit is declining. Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Real Consumer Credit Data from the Fed, …
The alarms aren’t just blinking anymore. They’re blaring. America’s debt-fueled consumer economy is starting to crack. Families who used to keep the stores and car dealers busy are now falling behind on payments. This isn’t some slow leak. It looks and feels like the early days of 2008, only deeper and faster. Car loans are …
Credit card APRs vs. fed funds: the spread that will not mean revert byu/MonetaryCommentary inbonds The gap between what banks charge on plastic and the policy rate has turned into a structural toll. It shows credit card APRs that shadow tightening phases but refuse to pass through easing with the same intensity, which lifts the …
Credit Card debt is absolutely exploding higher, now over $5 trillion and personal interest payments just hit a record high The consumer debt picture also indicates that decades ago, there was a massive, structural break in the economy and broader financial system- will we ever recover? “Credit card debt in the United States at the …
The regional banking crisis 2.0 Soon. pic.twitter.com/ofFj6Qlpw7 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 30, 2025 Fun fact: US Banks’ reserves are very close to the same level where the 2023 US regional banks crisis began – the bubble standing upon these reserves is also much larger today than it was 2 years ago https://t.co/4RJlfMcjrK pic.twitter.com/mYEUwnfQ5p …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, If “growth” is all that matters, that leads to depending on credit and asset bubbles, which are self-liquidating in ways few see because, well, it’s complicated. Many people anticipate the demise of fiat currencies, for good reasons. This is the motivation for calls to return to the gold standard–currency …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The saga of the bifurcated economy continues. Gen Z getting hammered. Credit Scores Plunge Trump says the economy is booming. But FICO notes credit scores are down for the second year. . CNN comments Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession The national average FICO score dropped …
“When we have the next crisis, the word ‘private’ is going to be in every headline,” says Cornell Professor Dave Collum. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Collum warns that the biggest risks in the next financial crisis won’t come from the public markets—stocks, Treasuries, and the like—but from the shadowy private markets: private credit, …
Chinese 🇨🇳 commercial banks including China Minsheng Banking and Huaxia Bank are tightening oversight of clients using credit cards to fund stock investments as retail investors pile into the nation’s $1 trillion market rally this month. Banks warned that credit card funds and cash advances can’t be used for investments with violations leading to canceled …
So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. The credit card and student debt are the most concerning. The mortgage numbers are fake due to loan modifications. It’s fraud basically. If the mortgage delinquencies were real they’d be near GFC highs So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. …
The downfall of private credit will be epic. For all of my followers, don’t put your 401Ks in Private Credit please. byu/kmmeow1 inGenerationalRiches
Joe Sanberg, a top California Democrat activist who decried the corruption of big Wall Street banks and started a company marketed as the “cleaner” alternative, actually propped that company up through blatant fraud, he admitted Thursday. Sanberg and other high-profile Democrats started the carbon-credit platform and online banking app Aspiration Partners Inc., promising to plant …
If they cut the bond market will instantly drive the yield back up . Rates are based on risk we are an insolvent nation drowning in debt that can't even afford the interest only payments . — Jason the mason (@NobodyThan) August 13, 2025 YES. The Fed is going to cut with the most lagged …
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
Fun fact: the last time this happened Credit Suisse was imploding ⚠️ That wasn’t a coincidence in case you wonder https://t.co/B7nmfB00kB — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) August 12, 2025 Follow through.😅 The future of mortgage backed securities lol pic.twitter.com/C9uXVzHD4V — The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 12, 2025
President Donald Trump’s so-called “big beautiful bill” ends a $7,500 EV tax credit after Sept. 30. Consumers are acting quickly to claim the tax credit before it disappears, according to analysts and sales data. Consumers are racing to buy electric vehicles before a fast-approaching deadline to claim tax credits worth up to $7,500, according to …
BNPL firms are holding back repayment data from credit bureaus. Not to protect late payers. To stop on-time customers from getting punished. “We will not share loan info with the credit bureaus until we see concrete evidence that BNPL data reflecting responsible payment behavior will help, not hurt, the credit scores of our customers.” https://www.investopedia.com/these-2-bnpl-companies-wont-share-your-info-with-the-credit-bureaus-and-that-could-be-a-good-thing-11786128 …
It’s clear the economy is slowing down badly and yet the market continues to hit new highs daily. Such a bizarre world. pic.twitter.com/0YaCw6mAGQ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 6, 2025 The U.S. economy is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in mid-2025, with sluggish domestic demand growth, muted job gains, and new tariff actions poised to impact …
Gage is a new app that keeps a public social credit score on your work habits. “Gagework has introduced what is essentially a social credit score for employees.”https://thewinepress.substack.com/p/tech-startup-introduces-social-credit Users say it feels like “Yelp for humans.” Managers can rate your teamwork, energy, or even mood during a huddle. You might lose points for not giving …
