Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
🇺🇸 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations minus Present Situation -77.2 Leading indicator for #recession! Chart: @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/nYsQcGlMBq — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) March 27, 2024 As economic indicators send warning signals, analysts are keeping a close eye on the pulse of the trucking industry. The latest data points to a downturn in the number of …
via Mike Shedlock: To entice buyers, home builders are building cheaper and cheaper houses. What are you getting for your money? New Home Sales Prices from the Commerce Department, chart by Mish. New Home Sales Key Points The average sales price peaked at $568,700 in December of 2022. The median sales price peaked at $498,800 …
Chief Economist Warns Of High Chances Of Recession Due To Rising Unemployment And Declining Consumer Spending The chances of the economy sliding into a recession are “extremely high,” as the United States is on the brink of experiencing a surge in unemployment and a significant decline in consumer spending. Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of …
via Mike Shedlock The answer to the question appears to be yes, starting October of 2023. Six pictures of real vs nominal advance retail sales tell the story. Real and nominal advance retail sales. Real sales are inflation-adjusted by the CPI. Every month the commerce department reports Advance Retail Sales. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and …
After January’s surprised upside shift, expectations have been adjusted up over the last month for another sizable MoM move in headline CPI. But that was not enough as the 0.4% MoM rise in the headline (as expected – highest since August) lifted CPI YoY up to +3.2% (hotter than the 3.1% exp)… Source: Bloomberg The 3-month annualized CPI rate was rose …
Additionally, US consumer SERIOUS (90+ days) delinquency rates in auto loans and credit card debt for the most productive cohort (18-39) have been the highest since the Great Financial Crisis The mighty US consumer is getting through some notable issueshttps://t.co/puJCEOhOzW — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March 11, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 Confidence! It’s what consumers DON’T have under Bidenomics. For the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022. And Conference Board Consumer Confidence was DOWN to -3.90 in January, the worst since Feb 2022. It really isn’t surprising …
by confoundedinterest17 The Hollies said it best: Stop, stop, stop. FIAT Money Printing that is. Typically, we look at M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) as a measure of how much the economy grows by expanding the money supply. M2 Money Velocity is currently at 1.344, and still below where we were under Trump prior to Covid. After Powell …
by Michael According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal …
China has overtaken India as the world’s number 1 consumer of gold jewellery. China understands the era of gold very well. — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) February 3, 2024 China’s gold rush: world-leading jewellery surge shows how other investments have lost their shine China has overtaken India as the world’s No 1 consumer of gold …
via Mike Shedlock On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. Here’s the result in pictures. Tax data from the BEA, chart by Mish The Tax Foundation noted State Tax Changes Taking Effect January 1, 2023 On January 1, 2023, thirty-eight states have noteworthy …
by confoundedinterest17 President Biden still shuffles around mumbling about Maga Republicans and defending democracy (while gettig his DOJ and affiliates to prosecute his leading Presidential opponent) even though …. consumers continue to struggle. While Biden is in wonderland, American consumers are in hell. Savings as a percentage of GDP is actually NEGATIVE as sticky price …
Electric vehicles have proved far less reliable, on average, than gasoline-powered cars, trucks and SUVs, according to the latest survey by Consumer Reports, which found that EVs from the 2021 through 2023 model years encountered nearly 80% more problems than did vehicles propelled by internal combustion engines. Consumer Reports said EV owners most frequently reported …
by confoundedinterest17 Government power is causing inflation and middle class economic repression. For example, US credit card debt is at an all-time high as consumers attempt to cope with inflation under Biden. While inflation RATE is finally cooling off, the LEVEL of inflation remains high. Purchasing power for consumers is down 15% under Vacation Joe. …
via Mike Shedlock: Total consumer credit, revolving credit, and credit card interest rates all hit new record highs in November. Consumer credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish Adjusted for inflation, revolving credit is approaching the record high hit during the Great Recession. Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Nominal and Real In …
The latest report from the Federal Reserve reveals a slowdown in U.S. consumer-credit growth for October. Consumer credit expanded at a 1.2% annual rate, a significant drop from the 3% rate observed in September. October saw a total consumer credit increase of $5.2 billion, down from the prior month’s gain of $12.2 billion. Contrary to …
by confoundedinterest17 Both the US Federal government and California’s government are facing a fiscal inferno. Thanks to a softening economy and inane fiscal policies. At the macro level, we see that The Federal government has gone wild spending money and borrowing it. Much more than businesses and households. Biden’s wild spending reduces the degrees of freedom that …
EVs are less reliable than conventional vehicles, Consumer Reports says Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more problems and are generally less reliable than cars propelled by conventional internal combustion engines, according to a new report from Consumer Reports. Consumer… — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) November 30, 2023 via MSN: Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more …
by confoundedinterest17 US Real GDP grew at a whopping 5.2% (revision) in Q3. But was it organic growth or simply The Federal Government funding the defense and green energy industies with trillions in spending? One factor has been government spending which grew an unsustainably 4.7% in real terms over the last year. Outside the pandemic, this …
by The Felder Report Inflation has clearly made an impact on both the psyches… 'Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, up from the 4.4% expected earlier in the month, according to the final November reading from the University of Michigan.' https://t.co/Vo7z3oIDi6 pic.twitter.com/RX8B6XP1Bm — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) …
The decline in holiday hiring to the lowest level in about five years, with only 135,000 hires, reflects shifting consumer behavior. Black Friday, once a bustling shopping event, appeared subdued this year, and retailers face challenges amid changing trends. TD Cowen lowered its U.S. holiday spending estimate due to flat Black Friday traffic, and early …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/financial-fragility1 Wut Mean?: Overall Decline in Consumer Credit Demand (2023): General weakening in most credit application rates. Credit card limit increase applications rose. Rejection Rates Trends: Overall rise in rejection rates for credit applications. Decline in rejection rates for credit card limit extensions and new mortgage applications. Higher creditworthiness among those applying for new …
While premiums and benefits have improved for beneficiaries, the financial mechanisms behind these plans raise concerns. Medicare Advantage companies, funded by the federal government, are incentivized to manage policyholders’ risks, potentially leading to overspending and profit-driven practices. The push for Advantage plans during open enrollment is linked to commission structures favoring brokers, contributing to a …
by confoundedinterest17 President Joe Biden and his boss Barack Obama remind me of the legendary corrupt Chicago politicians First Ward Alderman Michael “Hinky Dink” McKenna and “Bathhouse” John Coughlin. And their love of “boodle” (a slang term money, gained (Biden family payoffs from foreign countries), or spent improperly (Obama shipping large pallets of cash to US enemy …
Biden’s Dept of Fake Data persists in downplaying the dire jobs situation, risking the stability of the economy. Job openings are plummeting, mirroring past financial crises, as the consumer’s dwindling savings set off alarming warnings about impending economic turmoil. Biden's Dept of Fake Data doing its thing: August jobs revised down by 62,000, from +227K …
Consumer spending rose 4% in the July to September period, fueling a blowout quarter for economic growth, according to government data. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 31, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1719306931871834515
"The consumer is in excellent shape." Me: checking sales of luxury goods… – Gucci: -7%– Yves Saint Laurent: -12%– Bottega Veneta: -7%– Other: Balenciaga/Alexander McQueen etc: -15% Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/dnhRqpGx0G — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 24, 2023 "Consumer spending is on the decline for the first time in a decade as inflation pushes prices …
Americans are about to hit a breaking point, according to Walmart’s CEO. Soaring prices are severely impacting consumer spending habits, and the world’s biggest retailer is worried about how this trend is going to affect its bottom line this fall and winter. Bill Simon, the head of U.S. operations for four years, revealed that for …
Biden’s economic blunders sending America into a tailspin: Recession fears, skyrocketing inflation, and a sleepy president ignoring it all while you struggle to afford gas and groceries.
