Inflation has clearly made an impact on both the psyches…
'Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, up from the 4.4% expected earlier in the month, according to the final November reading from the University of Michigan.' t.co/Vo7z3oIDi6 pic.twitter.com/RX8B6XP1Bm
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 22, 2023
…and the pocketbooks of American consumers over the past few years.
'The ability of US households to cover an unexpected $2,000 expense is at the lowest level in a decade, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.' t.co/swu6ItL4mF pic.twitter.com/aaxZAuHTv4
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 20, 2023
Now a deteriorating employment environment could do further damage.
'Our Employment-Based Recession Composite is already consistent with oncoming recession. I don't believe we have enough evidence to expect a recession with high confidence but it should be clear that the data are increasingly leaning away.' t.co/shWuffTDRm by @hussmanjp pic.twitter.com/EGgPbMKbC8
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 20, 2023
That is, in fact, the message coming out of major retailers lately…
'Target CEO Brian Cornell said consumers were holding off from making many purchases until the last minute. For example, they didn't buy winter clothing until the weather turned cold, classic recessionary behavior.' t.co/p4b8RiGJht
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 20, 2023
…and adds to the growing pile of evidence suggesting that an economic landing is likely to be anything but “soft.”
🇺🇸 One, two, three, four…
… this is why I continue to be such a bore 😵💫 pic.twitter.com/XnWdw4JX5y
— Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) November 21, 2023