Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Wage growth is dropping fast. Down to 3.9% YoY for American Workers. 📉 That is now the lowest rate of wage growth since the pandemic started. And also below the 60-year average. Bad news for US Economy & Housing Market. ❌ pic.twitter.com/YgomPshuyf — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 6, 2023 Americans are struggling to make ends …
Game over pic.twitter.com/2LvKu0YXdN — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2023 The median income last year was $74,580 compared with $76,330 in 2021, according to the Census Bureau. The 2.3% drop in incomes was the most since 2010. It was the third-straight annual decline. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 5, 2023 US Consumers Are Headed Down ‘A Death …
US Consumer Spending Is Signaling Pain Ahead: Credit Weekly (Bloomberg) — The US consumer is starting to buckle as rising gas prices crimp spending and the delinquency rate on credit cards reaches the highest level in more than a decade. And that’s before student loan payments restart in October. A measure of consumer confidence slumped …
“The financial condition of balance sheets in the consumer discretionary sector has severely deteriorated over the past few years It’s one thing to accumulate debt in a easy money environment, but quite another to operate a highly leveraged business in a rising cost of capital setting. Keep in mind that some of these companies will …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is terrible! Just a huge payoff to be big donors (the donor class) for green energy, Big Pharma and Big Defense. Now Biden is considering using ankle monitors to prevent illegal immigrants from leaving Texas and traveling to welfare-friendly blue states like California and New York rather than just enforcing the border. …
Credit conditions are likely to worsen in H2 2023 Commercial bank deposits have been contracting sharply, pointing to a decline in lending pic.twitter.com/L2HRt5ZT1n — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 30, 2023 High bond yields imperil America’s financial stability Don't forget, $140 billion in OCE loans by these banks are required to be paid back to the …
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Bank. The “resilient consumer” choochoo train is slowly but surely headed towards the cliff. We have been saying it almost forever, but the train is closing in slowly for the big crash. NORDSTROM: “.. we have seen delinquencies rising gradually and they are now above pre-pandemic levels, …
via WSJ: The sporting-goods chain slashed its profit targets for the year after missing Wall Street forecasts for the second quarter. Sales slowed after a pandemic-fueled surge for outdoor gear, leaving it with excess inventory. Executives said thefts of merchandise were also higher than they expected. Macy’s reported declining sales in the June quarter and …
Grocery prices rose 3.6% for the year, higher than the overall 3.2% increase of consumer prices, per CNN. Food altogether, including menu prices, went up 4.9%. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 15, 2023 Food and Gas Prices Continue to Rise, Putting Strain on Americans’ Budgets Gas prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, according to pricing …
Keep this in mind when you hear, "The consumer is strong." Just because they're spending, doesn't make them strong. — Frank Iozzo (@RetireWithFrank) August 11, 2023 Not something you want to see if federal reserve interest rates have skyrocketed over 6,000% in a year pic.twitter.com/YWDP0lfZtn — Market Radar (@themarketradar) August 10, 2023
The US has $17.1 trillion in household debt, $12.0 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, $1.6 trillion in student loans, and $1.0 trillion in credit card debt. pic.twitter.com/xU9iQN2f5f — MapleMAGA 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@MapleMAGAw5) August 8, 2023 US Total Household Debt Hits an All-Time High of $17 Trillion; Credit Card Debt Also Sets New Record …
by DesmondMilesDant 40.3 points in August from 41.3 in July '23, US Economic Optimism Index drops again. Lowest since October. A hint for the wise is enough. pic.twitter.com/5VfoIjjV7i — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 8, 2023 “Soft landing” news on @business is now higher than in 2000 and 2007. #macro https://t.co/4hl26TWkMQ pic.twitter.com/j329uSp4ch — Kantro (@MichaelKantro) August …
On top of printing $4 trillion, the Fed lowered rates to 0% overnight in March 2020. Now, we have the fastest rate hike campaign in history. It’s unclear if zero interest rate policy was a net positive. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 31, 2023 …
US consumer confidence is soaring to a two-year high as a robust job market and easing inflation foster renewed optimism. pic.twitter.com/hbr0xT2Agm — Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) July 25, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-in-two-years-155813210.html We shall see how confident many consumers are when student loan payments resume. My bet is that stores valuing low prices will be able to ride …
via mishtalk: The more you think you really need a loan, the less likely you are to get one, especially auto loans. Data from New York Fed Survey of Consumers, chart by Mish New York Fed Credit Access Survey report comes out every for months. The June report shows significant tightening of credit standards by lenders and …
via YAHOO: (Bloomberg) — US consumers, particularly those with lower incomes, are running into financial trouble as pandemic savings disappear, a headwind for lenders ranging from banks to asset-backed securities investors. The credit outlook is expected to deteriorate later this year when almost 27 million borrowers have to resume making payments on student loans. Delinquencies …
Consumer #Credit slowed even more in May, and we saw revisions for March and April that were lower than last month. So, people are taking out less debt in the following forms, which shows a sign of credit contraction. -Auto loans-Home improvement loans-Appliance and… https://t.co/txsBRdV4VR — Micro2Macr0 (@Micro2Macr0) July 15, 2023
Consumers face challenges. If banks borrow short and lend long, then a large % of their payments dries up, how do they pay back their lenders in full? (they don't) That eventuality is only growing larger: pic.twitter.com/N96oHRwUBG — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) July 13, 2023 University of Michigan consumer sentiment is levels last seen during: – …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2023/07/official-cash-rate-remains-on-hold Highlights: The RBNZ has decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. Remember, this is the rate of interest which the RBNZ charges on overnight loans to commercial banks. The RBNZ expects the OCR to remain at this level for a while to ensure inflation returns to the target range …
via mishtalk: Nonrevolving credit posted its first negative reading since April of 2020. The net change is the lowest since November 2020. The Fed will be pleased with this report. Consumer credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for credit to rise by $20.0 billion. Instead, the rise was …
More than 2,200 stores are closing across the US in 2023. Here’s the full list: It’s not exactly the retail apocalypse of prior years, but it’s a shakeup nonetheless. An Insider tally of announcements by major retailers in 2023 finds as many as 2,280 stores set to close across the US. The rationales are varied: …
Consumer savings are expected to run out by Sept 2023 This might be the turning point for the US economy A thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/ZG1EkeDirO — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 5, 2023 3/ Hard economic data indicates the U.S. has so far avoided a recession, with yearly economic production remaining positive pic.twitter.com/OS44wBg44i — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
The third OPEC+ oil cut. Oil ended down on the news. Sign of an extremely weak global economy. pic.twitter.com/Ic3kgQWpFf — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 3, 2023 Optimism around the Chinese consumer has faded following the re-opening A weakening Chinese economy is a major red flag for the global economy pic.twitter.com/8sDZ0BweP2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 3, …
“I can’t understand those debtors who gambled to not pay student loans for 2 years, then bought a $50K car, now have to pay both a $800/month car note and must resume that $700/month student loan. They just thought the student loan would magically disappear.” -@bigbanknewyork3655
Loan-to-deposit ratio has seen the sharpest rise since the 1990s This is the result of consumer borrowing increasing at an unprecedented pace pic.twitter.com/gKl61K9iQN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 29, 2023 “We’re in an inflationary debt bubble, meaning that consumers are using credit to chase inflation. Based on the assumption that interest rates are coming down …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9TBs8-ddmc The nightmare in the retail sector never seems to end, and now Amazon, the second largest online and physical retailer in the world, is giving up on its brick-and-mortar operations, according to a new report and warnings issued by the company’s CEO Andy Jassy. Its stores continue to disappear amid the most dramatic shift …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/g19.pdf Remember, From 1st quarter 2022 to 1st quarter 2023, total household debt has increased $1,205 billion to $17.05 trillion (+7.57%)–Mortgage balances ($864 billion), HELOC ($22 billion), Student loans ($14 billion), Auto loans ($93 billion), Credit Card debt ($145 billion), Other ($67 billion): Total household debt has risen by $148 billion, or 0.9 percent, …
