Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Over 5,700 American children had trans surgery between 2019 and 2023, medical group claims: ‘Treated like guinea pigs’ A new national database maps gender-affirming care for minors, listing where children are getting puberty blockers, hormone replacement therapy and sex reassignment surgery — and calls out some of the nation’s most notorious providers. Researchers were able …
"Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households, businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23, for only the third time since 1947. The other two times were 2008-11 and 2020." Gavekal pic.twitter.com/jWUcaT66Md — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 18, 2024 BREAKING: Total consumer credit jumped by $25.5 …
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023041pap.pdf
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY on track for lowest close since July 2023 👀 pic.twitter.com/QttP92aA3K — Barchart (@Barchart) August 23, 2024 This is crazy. People think they’re getting richer as the market goes up but in real terms not really. https://t.co/dytRkimwVe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 23, 2024 Wall Street’s reaction to the Fed’s impending rate …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/ TLDRS: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in the job market, with 28.4% of individuals actively searching for jobs, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014. The rise in job searches was particularly pronounced among those over 45, without a college degree, …
by Mike Shedlock At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS. My calculation closely matches an estimate by Bloomberg’s chief Economist. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish This is a complicated post that goes into some of the more arcane procedures the BLS uses to produce …
According to data aggregated by the Survey Center on American Life, the percentage of young men (under 30) who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has indeed decreased from 51% in 2016 to 39% in 2023. https://twitter.com/eyeslasho/status/1812827412092051712
According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. consumers disputed approximately 105 million charges with credit card issuers last year, amounting to an estimated $11 billion. This represents a significant increase from the $7.2 billion disputed in 2019. The rise in disputes highlights consumers’ growing awareness of their rights, as federal law allows cardholders to challenge billing errors, unauthorized charges, and …
US Supercore inflation increased 5.0% year-over-year in May, its highest level since April 2023. Supercore inflation is a key metric the Fed follows which includes core services inflation less shelter. Over the last 8 months, it has seen a significant increase from ~3.8% in October. This is despite core CPI inflation declining to 3.4% year-over-year …
As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst …
Here is a look at delinquency’s. Full disclosure 2009 was 8% delinquent. pic.twitter.com/ckwMsvdw0R — Nathaniel Frank (@Nathaniel8Frank) April 19, 2024 This new record-high vacancy rate is 50 basis points "above the recessionary peaks recorded in 1986 and 1991," an analysis published by Moody's revealed. Read more: https://t.co/f3HLlsWwT4 — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2024
Cocoa and coffee still on a tear – coffee is up 120% since Jan 2023, cocoa up 340%! pic.twitter.com/5hVBkiCg9O — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) April 19, 2024 Is Chinese copper demand about to fall off a cliff? See our latest Commodity Fundamentals Report for detail pic.twitter.com/zFzhb5tSI2 — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) April 19, 2024
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s report reveals alarming trends, with almost 3.5% of card balances overdue by at least 30 days, the highest on record. This surge in delinquencies, coupled with rising minimum payments and increased credit card balances, underscores the growing financial strain on US households. BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US credit card delinquency rates …
Bidenomics: 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/fDhspiCxYK — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 5, 2024 US Homeowners See Biggest Property Tax Rise in Five Years Levies rose 6.9% in 2023, nearly twice the gain a year earlier Report from ATTOM shows average tax climbed to $4,062 US homeowners paid more than $4,000 in property taxes on average last year, …
The Fed’s tightening regime just bit deeper into the national deficit. For the very first time in 108 years, the Fed just ran at a net loss, and it was huge. To be specific, the Fed reported a loss of $ 114.3 billion in 2023. Now, for the Fed, losses are no big deal because …
via Mike Shedlock Based on QCEW data, the BLS may have overstated 2023 end of year jobs by 800,000. Nonfarm payrolls and Employment Level from the BLS, QCEW data from the Philadelphia Fed. QCEW stands for Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. It is far more accurate but less timely than nonfarm payrolls from the BLS …
BREAKING: China economy grew around 5.2% in 2023: Premier READ: https://t.co/YFpRF9hjFj pic.twitter.com/kC6OyTC4YN — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) January 16, 2024 Chinese Premier Li Qiang said Tuesday the country’s economy was expected to have grown by around 5.2 percent in 2023, as he addressed an annual meeting of global elites in Davos. The figure would represent an …
by confoundedinterest17 We are closing out the first week of the New Year and 30-year conforming mortgage rates are up slighlty. Mortgage rate GROWTH is now at 8% year-over-year (YoY). While M2 Money growth has died and is down -3% YoY. Bank credit growth has been negative since July 2023 and M2 Money growth has …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Are the crowds ready for the curtain of Fed omnipotence to be pulled aside? What will push markets ever higher if the Fed’s alchemy fails? For 15 long years, the Federal Reserve has conjured an economy and financial system without crisis or lengthy recession (setting aside that spot of bother …
Watch the latest video at foxnews.com via FOXNEWS: College campuses have long been hotbeds of censorious conduct, according to a major free speech advocacy group, but the turmoil of 2023 may mark a turning point. “The situation for free speech on college campuses has been dire for a long time,” Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression President …
The U.S. national debt continued to soar in 2023, surpassing $33 trillion. It’s still rising rapidly. The U.S. Treasury Department estimates the national debt at $33.87 trillion, but the deficit figures for December could put the figure over $34 trillion. For fiscal year 2023, which began on Oct. 1, 2022, and ended Sept. 30, 2023, …
Officially : Russia ends the year 2023 as the country with the most sanctions imposed in human history, with 17,937 sanctions. At the same time, Russia’s GDP growth for this year reached 3.5%. pic.twitter.com/6wzJOcqagY — Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) December 20, 2023 “To apply sanctions against another country is automatically to apply sanctions to oneself” EU …
via dismal-jellyfish: Source: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/ Background: Liberty Street has a paper Treasury Bill Supply and ON RRP Investment based on the Staff Report Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs, Monetary Policy, and the ON RRP. TLDRS: The authors call out the increase in Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) take-up from 2021 to May 2023 was influenced by several factors, including higher balance-sheet costs …
Hmmm, spending increases inflation doesn’t it? I had occasion to read the bill a bit this afternoon. What a convoluted mish-mash of crap! Seems mostly about the new clean energy initiatives, so maybe it could have been called that? But the bill wanders around like a drunken sailor throwing money at whatever strikes his fancy. …
China’s economy is teetering at a “critical stage,” expanding a modest 4.9% in Q3, below the five percent target. The aftermath of draconian Covid measures persists despite their removal in 2022. Surprisingly, an economic model reliant on debt-fueled construction faces challenges. Ghost cities, idle airports, and vacant skyscrapers showcase the limitations of this approach. China’s …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ubs-is-least-efficient-bank-in-europe-in-q3-2023-79149692 The Swiss bank recorded a third-quarter cost-to-income ratio of 99.56%, representing a 10.61-percentage-point increase from the previous quarter. UBS posted a third-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders of $785 million, compared to a $1.73 billion profit booked a year ago. Operating expenses surged 91% to $11.64 billion due to the ongoing integration …
In 2023, major financial institutions such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Farmers Insurance, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Bank of Nova Scotia, and RBC have collectively announced layoffs, totaling more than 20,000 employees according to Forbes. These layoff announcements contribute to the ongoing struggles in the US banking sector, with bank stocks …
